Roy Morgan’s Post

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 0.6pts to 80.5 this week. The index has now spent a record 66 straight weeks below the mark of 85. Consumer Confidence is now 2.8 points above the same week a year ago, May 1-7, 2023 (77.7), and 2.1 points below the 2024 weekly average of 82.6. Looking around the States, Consumer Confidence was down significantly in Victoria, but up slightly in New South Wales, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia. Driving the weekly decrease in Consumer Confidence was deteriorating confidence about the performance of the Australian economy over the next year. #ConsumerConfidence #AustralianEconomy #ANZRoyMorgan Read More: https://lnkd.in/g2KKunDG

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was down 1.8pts to 81.3 this week before the Reserve Bank meets for a highly anticipated meeting on Australian interest rates. After last week’s ABS inflation numbers for the June Quarter 2024 were in line with forecasts the widely held expectation is that the RBA will increase interest rates this week. Looking longer-term the index has now spent a record 79 straight weeks (equivalent to 18 months) below the mark of 85. #ConsumerConfidence #ReserveBank #AustralianInterestRates Read More: https://ow.ly/RVbO50SRHTk

Interest rate speculation is rife after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates on hold at 4.35% last month. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock believes it may be “some time” before inflation is “sustainably in the target range”, with concerns about inflation, excess demand, low productivity, and a tight labour market. The S&P/ASX 200 reached a new record high, up 2.2% for the month and 7.89% for the year, reflecting global optimism on the macro-economic front. Click the video below to view our update. 𝘊𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘵 𝘶𝘴 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶’𝘥 𝘭𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘧𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘪𝘢𝘭 𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯. #OracleAdvisoryGroup #market #update #inflation #demand #productivity #economy

This will change everything. It was six months ago that the Reserve Bank of Australia last hiked interest rates, with a 0.25% increase bringing the local cash rate to 4.35%. The move was deemed unnecessary by many commentators (politicians of all stripes and indeed many economic commentators called them out at the time), while for nearly all analysts, it was seen as the absolute top of the interest rate cycle. As a result, most market commentators and investors approached 2024 thinking that this would be the year that interest rates would start to fall, marking a new cycle of easier money that would support the economy, as well as asset prices from cryptocurrencies to the share market to property. Events have not turned out that way, for the very simple reason that while higher interest rates have slowed the economy down, they have not been anywhere near as successful in combatting inflation, with consumer prices in Australia and other parts of the world continuing to rise at an uncomfortable rate. As a result, not only are interest rates at risk of not falling at all this year, but they may in fact rise, with some economists now thinking rates could head above 5% in Australia this year. There is also the risk of further upside in America too, with the US Federal Reserve potentially being backed into a corner in their attempt to control inflation. To highlight how significant the inflation problem remains in America, consider the below chart (sourced here) which shows not only headline inflation (the yellow line) but also three other metrics that measure the pace of price rises across the economy. Please check the comments for the link to our full market update, there's some positive takeaways within. Follow me here ➡ Daniel Riemann for more information on the wondrous pink diamonds and other interesting things. And I hope one day, we’ll be able to work together! Graph source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Haver Analytics. #marketupdate #pinkdiamonds #investment #smsf

The December quarter 2023 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data unveils a notable surprise: a more substantial decline in the annual inflation rate than anticipated. Inflation increased by 0.6%, nudging the annual rate down to 4.1% 📈 This development offers the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) a much-needed reprieve, affording them the opportunity to meticulously evaluate their forthcoming actions. Despite the persisting challenges in domestically-driven inflation, RSM Australia's Economist, Devika Shivadekar, foresees the RBA exercising caution prior to implementing any monetary easing measures. With the inaugural monetary policy meeting of 2024 next week, the prospect of maintaining current interest rates has become increasingly plausible. #RSM #Inflation #EconomicNews

Today's inflation report paves the way for a steady course ahead. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will prefer to keep its position unchanged, recognizing the need for careful evaluation amidst evolving fiscal dynamics. We look ahead to the inaugural monetary policy meeting of 2024 and the accompanying Statement on Monetary Policy to better gauge the central bank's outlook.

Australia's annual inflation has moderated to a two-year low of 4.1%, signaling a potential end to the Reserve Bank of Australia's aggressive monetary tightening cycle. The December quarter saw the consumer price index rise by just 0.6%, the smallest increase since March 2021. Underlying inflation also fell, with the RBA's trimmed mean measure dropping to 4.2% annually from 5.1% in the previous quarter. This lower-than-expected inflation has led to predictions of interest rate cuts in the latter half of 2024, with speculation of the first cut possibly occurring as early as August. #inflation #commercial #rates #property #investment #realestate #interestrates #westernsydney #commercialproperty

Investors forecast rate cut of 0.60 percentage points 🔮🔮 The market is expecting at least two cash rate cuts by the end of this year, according to the Statement on Monetary Policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). “Market pricing suggests that market participants believe the cash rate has reached its peak, with rate cuts of around 60 basis points [i.e. 0.60 percentage points] priced in by the end of 2024,” the RBA said. “This is a little lower than the median forecast of market economists but broadly in line with market-implied forecasts for inflation to return to the target range during 2025. Compared with many other advanced economy central banks, both market pricing and economist forecasts suggest that the cash rate in Australia will peak at a lower level and begin to decline only later this year.” The cash rate is currently at 4.35% and is generally changed in increments of 0.25 percentage points. Our Tip - Don't make decisions requiring rate cuts to enable success. Make a your investment decisions based on the market now and have a rate cut be a bonus and cashflow helper if and when it does eventuate. #property #realestate #homeloans #realestateaccountants

This month's BSSI reading by Domenic Calabretta: 55.12. 📉 Last Month's Key Factors: ▪️ Australia's Consumer Price Index rose to 3.5% year-over-year in March 2024, up from 3.4% in the previous three months. This marks the highest inflation rate in four months, driven primarily by sharp increases in housing and transportation costs. ▪️ The country’s 10-year government bond yield reached approximately 4.5%, its highest level in five months. This rise came after stronger-than-expected domestic inflation data, which has shaped market expectations that the RBA may maintain the current interest rate levels. 🔍 On This Month's Radar: ▪️ The release of Australia's balance of Trade figures for March. ▪️ Interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia ▪️ The National Australia Bank's Business Confidence report next week. Stay with us for monthly updates as we analyse live data from various sources, condensing them into one simple number: the Mackay Goodwin Business Strength and Solvency Index. Calculated by us, for Australian businesses.

Ray White's Nerida Conisbee: ''While today was a hold, speculation continues to build as to when the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates. While there are different ways to consider this, it will be driven mostly by what happens to inflation over coming months, but also the timing of data releases. Inflation is definitely coming down and far quicker than what was anticipated at the end of last year. At the end of November, the ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures index was pricing in another rate increase in February, which obviously never occurred. Once December inflation was released, the outlook changed dramatically and the index is now pricing in cuts in September 2024, February 2025 and August 2025. While markets are timing a cut in September 2024, the timing of the release of quarterly inflation data is also likely to play a role. Monthly inflation is currently at 3.4%. While this is very close to the RBA’s inflation target of between 2and 3%, it is likely that they will wait for March 2024 quarterly inflation. This will be available on the April 24, 2024. If it does come in at below 3%, the earliest they will likely cut would be at their next board meeting on the May 7, 2024. Continued weakness in the economy may be another catalyst for a May cut, even if inflation isn’t quite at below 3%. GDP growth came in at a weak 0.2% for the December quarter. While we aren’t quite headed for recession, it does show that the brakes are on economic growth. So much so that at a parliamentary hearing in Canberra last month, Michelle Bullock, the RBA Governor, stated they may cut rates before inflation hits below 3%. #ProudlyRayWhite