RILEY-SHERMAN SHIPPING AGENCY, INC.’s Post

Gulf Stream Slowdown - For the last several years, the number one comment made by Mariners to our local industry, is about the changes in the currents when entering the Gulf of Mexico, making the estimated time of arrival to their destination ports more difficult. For a meteorological hobbyist, who as an industrial necessity, follows any changes in maritime weather closely - I am having difficulty discerning who is reporting the true science of this phenomenon and who is merely expounding their theories for clickbait. But I can say the direct reporting by mariners is enough to be warning of changes currently happening, even without scientific data being applied. The weakening of the Gulf Stream or AMOL "Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation" (https://lnkd.in/gX3VqWEq), if as imminent as the headlines state today, would have an immediate effect on trade/economic/geopolitical planning for the next century. For those not in the Maritime Industry, the Gulf Stream currents are utilized to facilitate economy of use of bunkers while transiting the Atlantic, and enabling a fast transit (much like an airport conveyor belt), if following a defined route as the same current. A longer voyage, with more bunkers consumed makes transportation of cargoes automatically more expensive, adding to the final cost of the delivered product. If indeed our conveyor belt is slowing down, trade projections need to be modified, economies redefined, and planning made to safely prepare our new transit lanes for the global marine trade, which I am sure the major trade partners have already started to organize. It would be interesting to hear from the Master Mariners readin in, on their opinions of same, and how they think this will affect the future of shipping.

New Research 🔬 In a world where the Arctic is warming at unprecedented rates, the need for accurate and accessible weather, water, ice, and climate (WWIC) data has never been more critical for safe navigation. Dr. Jean Holloway, alongside the Environment, Society, and Policy Group at the University of Ottawa, is pioneering a crucial study with support from Clear Seas: The Role of WWIC Data for Arctic Navigation. Key findings highlight the significant rise in Arctic vessel traffic, including non-ice-strengthened ships, and the resultant navigational risks due to variable ice conditions. Learn more:

A long-anticipated effect of climate change is that the loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic will make it easier for vessels to use the Northwest Passage as a shortcut between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. Now, a new study has demonstrated the reverse. https://lnkd.in/ekwMqpha

U.N. SAYS ARCTIC ICE IS MELTING—BUT IT'S NOT by Katie Spence Article excerpts: “It’s bad news for polar bears, according to the most recent assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a United Nations organization.” “Because of increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gas emissions, modeling and simulations predict the Arctic will be without ice during the month of September by 2050.” “A similar prediction was made in 2013, but at that time, the prediction was for no ice by about 2033.” “However, a new report by Allan Astrup Jensen, the research director and CEO at the Nordic Institute of Product Sustainability and Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology in Denmark, shows that from September 2007 through September 2023, Arctic sea ice declines were near zero.” “Frank Geisel is an ocean engineer and naval architect, who examined ice thickness in the Arctic and Antarctic with the Coast Guard over several expeditions in the 1980s.” “He said it’s problematic to measure sea ice extent and ice thickness and then conclude that CO2 is driving a decline and should then be mitigated.” NSIDC Report: https://lnkd.in/eexqmsFn

Record Strength and Length of -PDO Regime Despite Warm Northeast Pacific! Another hotter than normal summer and early autumn in California thanks in large part to the emergence of Marine Heat Wave NEP24A which started last April offshore and spread into the U.S. West Coast and intensified during the summer season (Fig. 1). As usual, the presence of the MHW helped amplify an upper-level high-pressure ridge to cause the hot summer. One fascinating aspect of MHW24A presence is the persistent and strengthening cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), normally present when the Northeast Pacific Ocean surface is cooler than normal. The -PDO continues due to the comparably ridiculously warmer than normal waters of the northwest/north-central North Pacific (Fig. 2). The northwest to northeast Pacific oceanic sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern is persistent and record strong so far in this decade (Fig. 3). By comparison, the Northeast Pacific SSTA is less warm than the Northwest Pacific justifying the -PDO index. Unfortunately, this new -PDO pattern is not representative of our historical understanding of -PNA climate regimes. According to the NOAA/California Current Integrated Ecosystem Assessment, MHW24A should continue but weaken in late 2024. The presence of MHW’s reaching the North America West Coast is normally associated with warm ENSO. NEP24A may be a partial explanation for the slow development of an anticipated La Nina 2024-25 and the likely weak character of cold ENSO heading into 2025.

Growing traffic along Northern Sea Route changes ice quality in Arctic seas — expert The growing capacity and size of the ships are also affecting the ice structures, Alexander Makarov said ARKHANGELSK, August 12/ The growing number of ships passing through the Northern Sea Route changes the ice quality in the Arctic seas, making the ice situation more difficult, the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute's Director Alexander Makarov said at the Arctic - Regions forum in Arkhangelsk. "Climate change is far from simplifying our tasks, it probably even complicates them. There emerge new ice phenomena that we have never taken into account. The navigation itself along the route, the constant passage of icebreakers, heavy vessels do change the ice. The ice, I would say, used to be a certain kind of a plate, a certain layer. In places of navigation, everything is being cracked, then gets frozen thus making much more complex ice," he said. The growing capacity and size of the ships are also affecting the ice structures, he continued. New ice parameters must be taken into account when working on ice forecasts. The scientist compared the Northern Sea Route with a highway where traffic must be provided throughout the year. Noteworthy, climate change affects the conditions mostly in the summer. "The ice in the Arctic will remain for the next 30-50 years, we cannot cope without icebreakers, we need them. We are saying the ice cover changes only in the summer, the ice remains in the Arctic all winter round," he said. "When we speak about summer, we must understand that summer in [the Russian Arctic's] western sector is 10-11 weeks, well, maybe 12 weeks a year. And in the eastern sector, it's 8, maybe 9 weeks. With climate change, we will get another week of open water for navigation in the western and in the eastern sectors. Yet, this does not cancel navigation the rest of the time." About the forum The Arctic - Regions forum ran in Arkhangelsk on August 8-9. The event was organized by the Arkhangelsk Region's government, and co-organized by the NEVA International Company. The forum's titular partner was the Rosatom State Corporation. #business #finance #financialservices

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) seems to be en route to tipping. It made me think with a faster heart beat: Even if we sadly can or could no longer stop such tipping events with massive consequences, all actions for a regenerative, sustainable macro shift can still help a lot in adapting to the "new climate" in many regions - including agile adaptation of our agrifood systems which keep us alive. In each scenario: we know what we have to do, which helps us to stop tipping points or adapt, if the points of no return have been crossed in vital systems... https://lnkd.in/eZaBQQEi

Our paper , led by LEILA RAHIMI just got published in the American Geophysical Union’s journal Earth’s Future. The paper discusses on the hybrid approach of downscaling and bias correcting the climate parameters which captures high quantities. Also thanks to Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf , Nasrin Alamdari and others for all the support and guidance. https://lnkd.in/eesEQmDY

🌍 Exploring the Potential of the Northern Sea Route 🚢 As the Arctic ice continues to retreat, new shipping routes are becoming increasingly viable, offering the possibility of significantly shorter transit times between Europe and Asia. The Northern Sea Route, which could reduce travel time by up to 40%, presents an intriguing alternative to traditional routes through the Suez and Panama Canals. However, while this route offers economic advantages, it also brings serious environmental concerns. The increase in shipping traffic could have a profound impact on the fragile Arctic ecosystem, contributing to pollution, disturbing marine life, and accelerating climate change. It's crucial that we balance the economic benefits with the need to protect our planet. As the global conversation continues, it's up to all of us to advocate for sustainable practices in the development of these new trade routes. Read more about the challenges and opportunities of the Northern Sea Route and its environmental impact in our latest article. 🌱 👉 https://lnkd.in/dkxEmANz #VisionDrive #NorthernSeaRoute #SustainableShipping #ClimateImpact #GreenLogistics

⚡ In our article titled “The Shift of Atmospheric Rivers to the Poles: New Research Findings”, we examine the changes in the direction of movement of atmospheric rivers due to the effects of climate change.