Samantha McLemore, CFA’s Post

“Refusing to quit is not always a heroic act of resilience.” Adam Grant's recent article in the New Your Times is only partly about politics. He uses Biden's refusal to acknowledge his failure to describe a very common human behaviour called "escalation of commitment to a losing course of action". Faced with imminent failure, we often double down on our decisions rather than rethink our plans. "It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter". “One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions but rather to rationalize the decisions we’ve already made.” This pattern of behaviour can have terrible consequences for business and the economy: “Blockbuster went bust because instead of buying Netflix, leaders escalated their commitment to renting physical videos. Kodak made the same mistake by doubling down on selling film instead of pivoting to digital cameras.” This article is a must read, not only for policy makers, but also for business leaders. https://lnkd.in/dM3wMGh7

An insight into the psychology of how we make decisions and that no one is immune to cognitive bias. The question is whether we, with the help of well wishers willing to challenge us, can identify our blind spots and change our mind in time. === An extract from the article by Adam Grant: "There’s a formal name for this trap: escalation of commitment to a losing course of action. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence shows, instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions. It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter. One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions but rather to rationalize the decisions we’ve already made. We stick around too long in dead-end jobs. We stay in unhappy marriages even after friends have counseled us to leave. We stand by candidates even after they violate our principles... ...It happens in business, too: Blockbuster went bust because instead of buying Netflix, leaders escalated their commitment to renting physical videos. Kodak made the same mistake by doubling down on selling film instead of pivoting to digital cameras."

The Illusion of Power: The Real Controllers Behind the White House These days, the idea of the President holding true power is a fantasy. Whether it's an alien or Kamala Harris, the President has become nothing more than a front person, a mouthpiece for the real power brokers: Big Business and the Industrial-Military Complex. If Harris is elected, she'll merely cut ribbons, enjoy her personal time, and laugh her days away while the real decision-makers on Wall Street pull the strings. Politics today is controlled by a hidden network of influential figures who operate behind the scenes. The choice of candidates, like Biden in 2020, is a matter of resource allocation. When powerful insiders decide it’s time for a change, as seen with Biden’s withdrawal, it’s because they control the funds and the narrative. Elon Musk's attempts to break into this closed circle with his massive financial contributions reveal how even immense wealth falls short of accessing the highest echelons of power. His high profile and outspoken nature disqualify him in a world where true power is wielded quietly and anonymously. Trump, too, is a pawn in this elaborate game—a figurehead for the far-right elements of the power structure, rooted in a historic elitism that still shapes American politics. Despite his wealth, Trump remains an outsider in this world of covert power. The real decision-makers continue to control the political landscape, regardless of public appearances. Voting and political participation, while crucial, often reinforce the illusion of choice within a tightly controlled system. The truth is that power lies with those who operate from behind the curtain, far beyond public scrutiny. #PoliticalIllusion #PowerBehindTheScenes #HiddenInfluence #AmericanPolitics #RealControllers #ElitePower #SystemicDeceit #VoterIllusion #PowerStructures

Good morning, The more I speak with people, the more I notice the effect of normalcy bias. It's rare to meet someone who can step outside the “normal” and assess the situation logically and realistically. As I prepared to write this morning’s report on the state of the US consumer, something didn’t sit right with me. After reviewing the news, I realized something bothered me deeply.  In the span of one hundred and fifty-nine years, there were four assassinations resulting in the President's death and one assassination attempt of the sitting President in the US. Four sitting Presidents have been killed: Abraham Lincoln in 1865, James A. Garfield in 1881, William McKinley in 1901, and John F. Kennedy in 1963. Ronald Reagan is the only US President to have survived an assassination attempt while in office. Two former Presidents, Theodore Roosevelt in 1912 and Donald Trump in 2024, were also injured in attacks. As for the assassination attempts of the ex-president, there was one before 2024. Altogether there were six before 2024. (Source: https://lnkd.in/gRWPp8hi). Yesterday, we allegedly witnessed another attempt on former President Trump’s life. While the details are still emerging, it’s hard to ignore the gravity of this event, especially since it’s the second attempt in just two months, the first occurring on July 13th, 2024. The increasing frequency of such incidents doesn’t bode well for the status of the U.S. as a global power. This kind of events are more typical of authoritarian regimes, where eliminating opponents is the norm. Have a great day!

With political influence growing over market conditions, CEOs must engage politically to ensure their interests are considered. Being at the table or helping to inform political discussions through the media, is essential. With a tumultuous Fall political season nearly upon us, here are 4 things CEOs need to prioritize: 1️⃣ Make your Fall Economic Statement submissions now. If you want more favourable policies or financial support, start writing your proposal now (in August) for submission in early September. If you wait and rush them in October, it may be too late. 2️⃣ Add political experts to your advisory circle. You need to assess risks and potential impacts to your business. 2024/25 could bring disruptive political changes to North American markets – you need experts to help you prepare. 3️⃣ Before making new investments, map out different political scenarios to balance risks with potential rewards. Strategic investment involves being prepared for changes in policy and regulatory environments. 4️⃣ Adapt how you communicate with different governments and/or political leaders. Analyze their priorities and the language they use, and integrate that into your communications with them for better results.

Biden is very very old. Do you really see him being a vibrant leader in 2 years? Congress is the secret sauce. Without an across the isle cooperative spirit the next POTUS will tread water. No one I know has come up with a business plan to address unsustainable deficits and debt. An existential threat to future generations. Most people who chime in on LinkedIn offer emotional confirmation bias with little to no path to solving the vexing problems. “Pay your fair share” is hollow. What is a fair share? How do we address the cash and barter economy? What are the emerging job sectors that will employ the lower 4 quintiles? The planet is broke!

🚨 Buckle up, folks. Let's dive into the political circus coming straight from Team Biden. Yep, they're waving the scare flag, pushing the idea that if President Biden steps down, Vice President Harris is the sole viable alternative. 🔍 Let’s get real: - **Strategy or Desperation?** There’s a thin line between strategic maneuvering and sheer panic. Team Biden’s move seems less like a tactical masterstroke and more like a desperate ploy to retain control. - **The Ultimate Question:** Is this supposed to rally unity or generate fear? 🤔 What does this mean for the Democratic Party? - **Unity or Division?** The Democratic Party could either come together like never before or fracture under the weight of internal power struggles. - **Back to Status Quo?** Alternatively, this could lead voters to yearn for the 'good old days' – a time when political strategy wasn’t driven by fear tactics. 📉 Long-term Fallout: - **Public Sentiment** The average voter is smart enough to see through this. The question is, will they resonate with this move or will it backfire, causing more distrust? - **Impact on Future Candidates** It may also set a worrying precedent for how future candidates maneuver behind the scenes. Is this the new norm? It’s a high-stakes chess game, and everyone’s watching every move. Between fear tactics and genuine concern for leadership, let’s see if the Democrats can navigate this turbulent sea. https://lnkd.in/emdgfXDV

IT DIDN’T HAVE TO BE THIS WAY……. There had been lots of commentary this morning about President Biden’s faltering performance in the debate with Donald Trump. Media headlines do not make for comfortable reading with resulting tales of panic spirals within the Democratic party. While there were several other factors also at play, as someone who has trained dozens of business leaders for presentations and media performance, it was clear to me where the main problem lay – President Biden was OVER prepared. The President had taken several days at Camp David with senior advisers to prepare – and its impact told. But not in a good way. As a result of overpreparation, his voice was hoarse, sometimes raspy, sometimes mumbling. He sounded tired and burdened with not getting enough rest so that he could sound fresh and upbeat. Because he was dealing with a mercurial character like Mr Trump who’s likely to say anything in his free-wheeling style, Biden looked and sounded like was over briefed with too many scenarios and countering arguments, so he lost focus on delivering his key narrative lines. From my perspective, the key to success is keeping things simple in terms of messaging, identifying “wins”, preparing for curve ball questions (within reason) and rehearsal (but not to the point of exhaustion). And this advice applies whether you’re 30 or 80 years old Get in touch if you’d like to know more. #Leadership #bestadvice #insights https://lnkd.in/em_56DJM

Very interesting analysis. A common human frailty There’s a formal name for this trap: escalation of So what should the president be doing to navigate this enormously consequential decision? So far, we know that he gathered his family and top aides. (According to reports, they all encouraged him to stay in the race.) That’s a natural enough impulse, but it doesn’t necessarily help, since the people closest to a leader are precisely the ones who are most susceptible to confirmation bias. They’re too personally invested in his success and too likely to dismiss warning signs. What Mr. Biden needs is not a support network but a challenge network — people who have the will to put the country’s interests ahead of his and the skill to coldly assess his chances. That’s a task for someone who is not affiliated with the campaign in any way, someone whose judgment has proved to be impeccable and most of all, impartial, and someone who is not worried about the possible cost to their own career. (An ideal candidate for this role might be professional forecaster, since forecasters — unlike pollsters, who tell us what voters think today — excel at anticipating how views are likely to change tomorrow.) According to news reports, insiders worry that pressuring Mr. Biden to back out will backfire. That’s a valid concern. Pressure can make people defensive. A more promising approach might start with praising his flexibility, which research shows can make people more willing to rethink bad decisions. Second, ask what he sees as the pros and cons of staying in the race. The best way to open a stubborn mind isn’t to argue; it’s to listen. When people feel heard, they become less defensive and more reflective. Third, ask him what would shift his thinking. “President Biden, I admire your ability to build bridges across the aisle. That shows a willingness to have tough conversations, and you certainly have a tough choice in front of you. What advice would you give to others facing this dilemma? You obviously have a long list of reasons to stay in the race — what would be your top three reasons to walk away? What information would convince you that it would be best not to run?” to a losing course of action. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence shows that instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions. It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter. One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions, but rather to rationalize the decisions we’ve already made. We stick around too long in dead-end jobs. We stay in unhappy marriages even after friends have counseled us to leave. We stand by candidates even after they violate our principles. Some of the worst leadership decisions of our time can be traced to escalation of commitment. Many people lost their lives because American presidents pursued a futile war in Vietnam & continued searching for weapons of mass destruction

Part of what I do here is provide insights to you on reality. The reality is Joe Biden has aged rapidly in the last two years. But it may not be for the reasons you suspect. Job of being a serious US President, requires enormous amount of time and energy. The thing that aged Joe Biden was GOP hate at every turn. (A person who has suffered awful tragic life events) Relentlessly seeking to jail his only living son. Biden, a person known for fifty years as the poorest man in the US Senate. All of a sudden getting 100 million in shady business deals. This is what has aged the President. The public calling by leadership of good as evil and evil as good. Silence to injustice. The endless cruelty of unfounded lies to wound him continually. The Job of being President he could do. Surviving the hate, not so much. If you want to know what the future looks like under their governance? This is exhibit A, increase power by endless meanness without cause other than love of power. This is my work. obviously I’m not trying to win friends and influence people. You should know as I've told you so by the numbers. This is how it plays. What a sadness in our world and they think its a winning strategy. Indeed 45 may be 47, here is what to expect.#blacklivesmatter