No World War III
I haven’t posted in a while, feeling uninspired, but have had a few debates recently about the Middle East and whether or not Nostradamus was just a few years out!
I don’t believe World War III is upon us. And there won’t be a Regional war either. Here’s why? Because the great protagonist in the region, Iran, cannot win! Iran may be a revolutionary theocracy and want to control the region in its own image, but its ultra religious leaders are not stupid!
And when I talk about Iran, I want to make it clear that this is not about Iran or Iranians, but about their religious leaders and controlling state actors like the Revolutionary Guard.
But it is all about religion. Iran’s rulers hate that the 3 most important Islamic sites in the world - Mecca, Medina & Jerusalem - are not within their control. The majority Shia Iran has two main rivals in the region. Majority Sunni Saudi Arabia who worship the wrong flavour of Islam and are not fit to host either Mecca or Medina. And Jewish Israel, Little Satan, where Jerusalem sits, the rightful home of the whole Arab world. And which hosts The Noble Sanctuary (The Temple Mount). Can’t split that in two!
Here’s the why! By far the most powerful and superior military force in region is Israel. Pick a fight with them and the US, the Great Satan, would support the war. Likewise, pick a fight with Saudi Arabia, where the US has most of its military bases in the region, and they would support them too. So Iran cannot afford a direct conflict with either because they would lose. Their leaders know this.
Unfortunately, they will continue to try and upset the regional balance of power using proxies - Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas & the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Gaza), Zaynabiyoun Brigade & Fatemiyoun Division (Syria), the Houthis (Yemen), and a whole bunch in Iraq.
Interestingly, the two terrorist organisations in Gaza are both Sunni. Iran doesn’t care how many of these people die in the conflict as long as it further’s its aims. And it has won a great victory. By forcing Israel to over-react, it has consigned the expansion of The Abraham Accords to the bin! Who was due to join this regional peace plan? Yep, you guessed, Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Alas, more local conflicts but this is not the beginning of the end.