Sarah Humbargar’s Post

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Real Estate Broker | Development Consultant | Incentive Strategist | Creating Great Places in Colorado

IRR Insights   As we navigate 2024, it's essential to reflect on how commercial real estate expectations have evolved from 2023 to now. A source I love is Integra Realty Resources (IRR), so I thought I'd put together a little comparison of their year-in insights and see how these stand against the current market reality.   2023 Expectations - Interest Rates: Anticipated hikes to curb inflation affected borrowing costs and investment decisions. - Market Recovery: Continued post-COVID recovery, with stabilization in hospitality, multifamily, and industrial sectors. - Capital Markets: Cautious optimism with hopes of interest rate stabilization by year-end.   2024 Predictions - Higher for Longer: Continued high interest rates affecting capitalization rates and investment strategies. - Market Volatility: Expected in sectors sensitive to economic fluctuations, like hospitality and multifamily. - Investment Focus: Shift towards safer havens and distressed assets.   Current Market Reality (June 2024) - Interest Rates: High borrowing costs persist, increasing the risk premium required by investors. - Hospitality Sector: Moderate growth in RevPAR, driven by ADR increases but flat occupancy rates. - Multifamily and Industrial Real Estate: Continued supply-demand imbalance and cautious investment. - Capital Markets: Challenges for REITs and CMBS with rising delinquency rates in retail and office sectors. Conclusion The commercial real estate market in 2024 remains cautious with strategic repositioning. The sustained high interest rates and cautious investment climate predicted by IRR have largely materialized. Investors need to focus on disciplined strategies and prudent capital deployment.

Dragan Gelevski

Climate Co-Founder @ EarthCare.ai · Techstars Alumni

1mo

Wow, this is a very insightful comparison, Sarah! I was wondering if climate-related events are taken into consideration when doing these analysis or are these events baked in some of the broad concepts 🤔

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