Satyamoorthy Kabilan’s Post

In what will be the most important election to the start of the new year, Taiwan will go to the polls this Saturday to choose their next president. The island is on the frontlines of a battle against disinformation orchestrated by China’s communist party. Last week I sat with experts and activists to discuss the importance of the upcoming election and overwhelmingly the key issue is the onslaught of disinfo from the CCP which is punctuated this year by the tight race for president. Incumbent (William) Lai Ching-te, of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party is leading challengers Hou Yu-ih of the nationalist Kuomintang party and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party but the margins are narrowing. This 2020 report by the International Republican Institute, Graphika, and the Institute for the Future’s (IFTF) Digital Intelligence Lab describes how CCP led disinformation manifests across social media. Though the report focuses on tactics used in 2018 and 2020, CCP aims remain the same: discredit the Central Election Commission and sow false narratives that portray America as Taiwan’s biggest threat to sway voters toward perceived pro-Beijing candidates. If the past is a harbinger for the future, then the volume of disinfo will only get worse after the polls close. Fortunately, Taiwan is a vibrant democracy and has a successful record mobilizing against election disinformation. Experts believe that even if the disinformation surrounding Saturday’s vote were effective in swaying the electorate, it would have little bearing on cross-strait relations. Still, outside of Taiwan the growing use of disinformation campaigns to sway elections is a major global concern especially in a year where there are no guardrails in place for AI-generated content. Perhaps there are lessons to be learned from Taiwan’s resilience. Let’s watch and see. Full Report: http://bit.ly/4aT0xMP #TaiwanVotes #Taiwan #democracy

https://lnkd.in/gnW2S257 "Counterintelligence and Security Center, warned about “ongoing and potential” electoral influence efforts by Russia, China, and Iran. Last week, Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe and FBI Director Christopher A. Wray disclosed that Russia and Iran had obtained US voter registration data. “[T]he two countries are stepping in to try to influence the presidential election as it enters its final two weeks,” concluded the New York Times. Americans have been understandably outraged and alarmed about foreign electoral interference. But the practice is not new; in fact, the United States was for a long time its leading exponent. As Dov Levin shows in his book, Meddling in the Ballot Box, the US and the Soviet Union (and subsequently Russia) engaged in 117 covert or overt foreign electoral interventions to help or hinder candidates or parties between 1946 and 2000, with the US accounting for 81 of these cases (or 69% of the total). One of the most famous examples of US foreign electoral interference came at the dawn of the Cold War in 1948, when the CIA (in its first covert action) secretly subsidized public efforts to ensure that communist candidates were defeated in elections in Italy. It also spent millions of dollars on propaganda efforts and supporting favored Italian politicians. These and similar practices, covert and overt, continued throughout the Cold War. CIA historian David Robarge told David Shimer, author of the book Rigged, that during this period, the Agency “‘hardly ever’ altered votes directly,” which implies that it sometimes did."

🗳 🇺🇸 With the pivotal U.S. election three weeks away, Bedford Analysis has been keeping an eye on foreign malign influence (FMI) campaigns in play.. 👀 If you haven't already, take a look at the U.S. Department of State and Office of the Director of National Intelligence update below 👇 Key takeaways for the Bedford election-watching community: 🔎 Foreign malign influence (FMI) campaigns will continue well after the election, with amplifications of doubt over the results. Objective: undermining trust in democratic institutions. 🔎 Russia, China, and Cuba are supporting or denigrating candidates involved in congressional, state, and local races. To determine which candidates to support or oppose, foreign actors evaluate how they think an individual candidate’s foreign policy positions affect their national security interest. 🗣 This is political - not just electoral - interference. What can be done? Get informed and talk about it! #reshare 🗣 Individuals, companies, businesses, governments, civil society, but also friends, family members and colleagues, should all be aware that this is a real and present threat which authorities are mitigating day-by-day, as you can read below👇 #geopolitics #ODNI #freeandfair #opensociety #safeguarding #democraticinstitutions https://lnkd.in/eByw2wK7

Authoritarian governments such as Russia, China, and Iran have three key motivations to interfere in the 2024 election: to diminish the credibility of our democracy, distract our country with internal issues to erode U.S. leadership overseas, and shift our policy to favor their interests. If Americans lack confidence in the integrity of a democratic election or if the country plunges into a political crisis, autocrats abroad can point a finger at us to distract their own citizens from the many shortcomings of their own authoritarian political systems. And American preoccupation with internal election turmoil could weaken our foreign commitments in places like Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel, regions where these authoritarians have deep and abiding interests counter to our own. These regimes favor certain political candidates, and in the midterms China (and even Cuba) sought to sway elections toward candidates who aligned with their agendas. A U.S. president less interested in maintaining strong American leadership overseas or supporting our allies would be a strategic win for these countries. The United States is highly polarized. Tens of millions of Americans believe the lies that the election system is rigged already. Our free and open information environment leaves us susceptible to all sorts of campaigns that try to denigrate how the electoral process works. Furthermore, there are over 10,000 election jurisdictions in the country, and although elections are more secure than ever across the board, some jurisdictions still lack the resources to combat a viral image or video created in a basement, to say nothing of deterring a hostile intelligence service. https://lnkd.in/gNh36AQj

✋🏻 Have you seen this article? 👇🏻 Knowing and showing: how intelligence and transparency can combat electoral interference. We know that every country, every level of election can face disinformation which has irreparable consequences on governments and society. What are some of the measures that can be taken to reduce disinformation, interference, and electoral disruptions? What are the direct and indirect consequences on societies? Great article! #elections #parliament #politics #government #society The Parliamentary Centre | le Centre parlementaire https://lnkd.in/egtkSjWV

Sam Cooper has once again highlighted a path forward for us, showcasing a transparent and actionable strategy to address a pressing issue within Canada. For those who monitored Taiwan’s elections this year, they have deployed a sophisticated and effective method to combat #cognitivewarfare. Given that we face a similar adversary, there’s no need to wait for a costly inquiry to: 𝗔𝗰𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄𝗹𝗲𝗱𝗴𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗲𝘅𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗯𝗹𝗲𝗺 𝗟𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗻 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗲𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗶𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗱 𝗯𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 With the 2025 federal elections on the horizon, proactive measures taken now can safeguard our democratic electoral process. Delaying action until the conclusion of the #foreignInterference inquiry will not enhance our solutions or expedite their implementation. #HybridWarfare https://lnkd.in/dRhGS-e2

My latest for European Council on Foreign Relations on this weekend's Taiwan elections. It'll be a big surprise if Lai doesn't win, given his poll numbers have strengthened above 40%. And assuming that happens, its going to be a bumpy next 6 months. Taiwan is going to be looking for support from friends around the region — US, Quad, Europe – and whether and how they get it will be a major test of regional indo-pacific policy. Extract: "The likely uptick in pressure after the election will raise complex questions for the US, as it attempts to de-escalate its own tensions with China. Washington has remained broadly neutral during the election campaign. US policymakers would prefer another DPP administration, although many worry privately that Lai might adopt a more confrontational tone than his predecessor, complicating Sino-US ties. Either way, there are clear risks that worsening ties between China and Taiwan, but also possibly between China and the US, could develop into a full-blown crisis. The military exercises China launched following the visit of US house speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei in 2022 give a sense of the alarming scenarios that might follow." Thanks to Janka Oertel, Alicja Bachulska and others for input, and to friends in Taipei and elsewhere for general insights too, Alicia Garcia-Herrero 艾西亞, Mathieu Duchâtel, Drew Thompson, Bonnie Glaser, I-Chung Lai, Thompson Chau, Emily Y. Wu 吳怡慈, Kathrin Hille, Bo-jiun Jing, Jason Hsu, Jeremy Huai-Che Chiang, Chris Miller, Vincent Chao, Alexander C. Huang. #Taiwan #china #election #DPP #KMT #USA #indopacific

Via Economist: 2024 is a giant test of nerves for democracy A warning from election results so far—and what follows in America, Europe and India Around half the world’s population, or some 4bn people, live in places that are holding elections this year. These polls will decide who governs over 70 countries. But together they also represent a big test for the health of democratic systems; for over a decade there have been fears that democracy as a political ideal is ailing. By February 14th, when Indonesia went to the polls, we estimate that countries with 770m people had cast ballots (or prevented their citizens from doing so): or roughly 18.5% of the year’s total. That makes it possible to take an initial look at how the 2024 democracy test is going. The short answer is: not particularly well. https://lnkd.in/eNKn_vnb

If democracy can setup a framework defining a contract between the public and politicians being elected, which makes the promises politicians commit during campaigns and other responsibilities (such as affordability of shelter and food) as terms of the contract and politicians elected could be fired and jailed if they breach the contract based on yearly review, there is no need to talk about interference really😀 The biggest concern is not really election interference, but politicians elected don't serve the interests of the public.

The intensity of political debate and media coverage tends to increase in the lead-up to elections in European countries, but then fades away afterwards. This trend follows a pattern composed of well-defined phases and which is driven by several factors: 1) The conflict seeking phase: parties use conflict over policy issues to highlight programmatic differences and rally electoral support. As elections approach, parties engage in more intense debates to differentiate themselves and attract voters. 2. Media excitement phase: the media pays more attention to issues where parties express more negative views and engage in discursive conflict. Negative and conflictual rhetoric from parties leads to heightened media coverage in the pre-election period. 3. The promise phase: parties expose their plans to fix issues, usually addressing immigration (always in the back of their mind as main problem) unemployment, taxation. Salience of issues for parties does not independently lead to more media attention, except during campaign times. The direct spillover of party attention to the media is short-lived and most pronounced right before elections. 4. The narrative of the rig: malign foreign actors often target elections with information manipulation campaigns on media and social media. These coordinated influence operations aim to shape public sentiment and voting behaviour in the run-up to elections. 5. Post-election relaxation and celebration: after elections, the intensity of political debate and media coverage on these issues tends to fade as the focus shifts to governing and the next electoral cycle begins. This is a phase of relative radio silence. The post-election period sees less conflict and negativity from parties, leading to reduced media attention. And the show goes on, until the next elections. Nothing changes and if it does, it is for the worse. #policy #politicaldebate #elections #democracy #media #news #propaganda