Scope Markets’ Post

In this week's newsletter we examine Bitcoin’s market dynamics, focusing on the contrasting behavior of short-term holders and large-scale investors amid recent price movements. Read it here👇 https://lnkd.in/dYKWwYMw

With less than a week to go until the US presidential election, financial markets are anticipating a potential #Trump victory. The term "Trump Trade" has gained popularity among investors as his proposed policies – including those on tariffs, immigration, aid to Ukraine, and cryptocurrency regulation – have influenced trends across all asset classes. This trend has seen the US #dollar, #gold, #silver, and #Bitcoin strengthen, while stock markets feel the pressure. Euronews What investors need to know about markets and the US election

"Long-only mode" | Wednesday, 19 November 2024, post-market | Nov MTD +4.2%  - We moved into a "single name-only, long-only" mode on Wednesday.  - We think squeeze risk is elevated from here to YE, and the short alpha-hunting environment will be unfavourable.   - Our base case macro view is constructive into YE. We unwound our hedges around the SPX 5880 level and staying unhedged unless/until there is a shift in market dynamics.  - We will move down our normal single name allocation from 5% to 3% in the "Trump 2.0 era" in response to the "Trump risk" (i.e., Trump saying or doing things that will cause a sharp decline in a particular group of stocks). This will significantly lower our single-theme concentration. We suffered a 3%+ drawdown mainly due to the ~20% decline of the "defense theme".  - The market turns out to be hardly "tradable". It is difficult to confidently define a trading strategy around geopolitical risks and cabinet nominations nervousness.  - We stayed "crypto-less". BTC or MSTR would have been "easy money". However, we did not participate because (a) We did not want to bet on election results. Now, we do not want to chase a hot trade "after the fact" (Trump win). Trump's pro-crypto stance is well-known to the public. BTC and MSTR/COIN are household/YOLO names. (b) We hesitate to take crypto risk or YOLO sentiment risk here. We are in a very different liquidity (ongoing QT + Yen near 160) and rates (terminal rate near 4%) environment compared to early 2021. We also do not see the inevitability of the market returning to a YOLO market for a sustainable period. Crypto/YOLO names likely will not be the "only game in town", nor do they necessarily improve the risk-return profile of a portfolio.   - Overall, we think the market has (somewhat) normalised. Intraday volatility returned. We think this is a more "sustainable" path higher compared to the "super hot melt-up" immediately after the election.

Bitcoin And Stocks Are In For A Wild 2025 Daiurs recently joined Anthony Pompliano to discuss the outlook for global liquidity, the influence of the U.S. dollar on global liquidity, the potential economic impact of Trump administration immigration policies, and more. If you missed the interview, here are the three most important takeaways from the conversation that have significant implications for your portfolio: https://lnkd.in/eCXidzMp

The 2024 U.S. Election and Its Potential Impact on Forex and Crypto Markets 🌍 How will the recent U.S. election results affect global trading dynamics? Our latest Medium blog dives into how shifts in policy, economic sentiment, and international relations could influence Forex and crypto markets in the coming months. Discover key insights and prepare for what’s ahead in trading! 🔗 Read the full blog on Medium to stay informed on potential market changes and strategies. https://lnkd.in/djWPdfX9

https://lnkd.in/eu2Xj77j A deep dive into what's moving markets across the global economy.

Bold predictions and speculation seem to dominate the headlines these days, making it hard to separate real trends from clickbait. Markets have seen big moves this past month, but beneath the headlines, not much has fundamentally changed. What has shifted significantly are expectations—and those are driving the action. In this month’s commentary, CIO Jordan Kaufman, CFA, CFP® cuts through the noise to unpack what’s really happening in the markets. From record Bitcoin highs to the incoming administration’s tariff threats, this commentary explores key developments and what’s behind the headlines. #MarketUpdates #InvestmentTrends #EconomicInsights #WealthManagement #FinancialNews #Crypto #EconomicPolicy #InvestorEducation #TariffImpact #InvestmentPlanning #FinancialFreedom https://lnkd.in/e7VJVXhc

🌟 What to Expect on January 20th, 2025: The Presidential Inauguration and Its Impact on Financial Markets 🌟 It's a thing of concern and I have to give my summary take on it. On January 20th, 2025, President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn into office for his second term. This event is not just a political milestone but also a significant moment for financial markets worldwide, including the crypto and tech sectors. Why It Matters? - Policy Shifts: The new administration's policies on trade, taxation, and regulation can lead to market volatility. Investors closely watch these changes to adjust their strategies accordingly. - Economic Uncertainty: The transition period often brings uncertainty, affecting investor confidence and market performance. Sectors like technology and healthcare may face particular scrutiny due to potential regulatory changes. - Sector-Specific Impacts: Traditional industrial sectors might benefit from infrastructure spending plans, while financial sectors could see positive effects from deregulation. Conversely, technology companies might face challenges due to possible antitrust measures. - Crypto Market: The cryptocurrency market is expected to react strongly to the new administration's policies. Trump's pro-business stance and anticipated crypto-friendly regulations could lead to a surge in digital asset values1. However, analysts caution that this rally may face corrections as the market stabilizes post-inauguration. - Global Reactions: International markets also react to U.S. political events, given the interconnected nature of global economies. Trade policies, especially with major partners like China, Canada, and Mexico, can influence global trade dynamics. What to Watch: - Stock Market Volatility: Expect increased volatility as markets react to policy announcements. - Sector Performance: Keep an eye on how different sectors respond to the new administration's policies. - Economic Indicators: Pay attention to economic data such as job growth, inflation rates, and corporate earnings, which will provide insights into market sentiment. - Crypto Trends: Monitor the cryptocurrency market for potential surges or corrections based on regulatory changes and investor sentiment. As we approach this pivotal moment, it's crucial for investors to stay informed and prepared for potential market fluctuations. Let's navigate these changes together and seize the opportunities that arise. Let me know your thoughts!! #PresidentialInauguration #FinancialMarkets #PolicyShifts #EconomicUncertainty #GlobalEconomy #InvestorInsights #MarketVolatility #SectorPerformance #EconomicIndicators #CryptoMarket #TechSector

FRNT CEO Stéphane Ouellette spoke to Bloomberg's John Authers for his latest column, discussing the continued institutional adoption of crypto: 'Initially, commodities were also seen as a rogue asset class, primarily dominated by independent contractors or companies like Marc Rich and Co., who were negotiating physical commodity deals with sovereigns in regions like the Middle East. Ultimately, Wall Street saw this asset class as a growth segment, and in the 1980s, you saw specialty commodity investment banks grow in importance… We see the evolution of the institutional landscape in digital assets similarly.' https://lnkd.in/eqR3hG5E