Commercial Real Estate development is fraught with peaks and valleys. In the case of multifamily, it seems that by the time supply has caught up with the demand that initially drove the investment, that demand has already been satiated...until the cycle starts again. This is a primary reason developers and investors are lobbying local governments to expedite the entitlement and permitting process. Markets can change in the amount of time it takes to go from application to lease-up! As noted in the article, in the DFW area "The market is expected to rebalance over the near term as construction levels fall to a 10-year low."
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The multifamily market is showing signs of stabilization despite an oversupply, with forecasted completions for 2024 at 533,000 units, a 10% decrease from 2023. However, markets like Austin, Tampa, and San Antonio will see increased completions this year, which will pressure vacancy rates and keep rent growth negative. The number of multifamily units under construction fell sharply from 1.2 million in early 2023 to 860,000 by May 2024, with construction starts dropping significantly due to higher costs, interest rates, and limited equity. If current demand levels persist, the market could shift from oversupplied to undersupplied by 2026, leading to lower vacancy rates and accelerated rent growth.
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BREAKING: US multifamily housing unit completions hit 647,000 at an annual rate in Q3 2024, the fastest pace in 3 decades. Since 2022, additions of housing units in buildings with 5+ units have more than DOUBLED. By comparison, in 2010 after the Financial Crisis, this number was 6 TIMES lower. Such a rapid surge in multifamily construction will likely begin cooling rent prices. Renting may soon become more affordable. https://lnkd.in/ddyPXD6P
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