Scott Pederson’s Post

Emerging market currencies are on track for their worst half of the year since 2020, dragged lower by an unexpectedly strong dollar and an unwind in a popular trading strategy across Latin American markets. JP Morgan's EM FX Index has fallen 4.4% so far this year, a drop more than twice as large as the same period in the previous three years. The move has come as investors have torn up hopes of rapid US interest rate cuts in 2024 and nerves around weakening economies and expansive fiscal policies have pushed currencies in some major emerging markets lower. #macrobond #emergingmarkets #fx

TGIF! Markets trading higher from pre-market lows, following the May PCE print which showed an increase of 2.6% in May - inline with expectation. That said, U.S. and global10yr yields are lower following the print. We note, declines in goods and energy prices offset rises in services and food, though housing costs continued to climb. While the core PCE of 2.6% remains within the Federal Reserve's 2-3% target range, lowering rates too soon could reignite inflation, particularly in housing.

HBZ CIO Comments on Current Market Context: - Resilient US macro data and renewed tensions in the Middle East send equities lower and bond yields higher - ⁠Price action in markets reflects reduced Fed rate cut expectations as well as increased risk aversion due to the situation in the Middle East - ⁠We continue to expect an upturn of the global cycle later in the year except in a scenario of a material escalation in the Middle East - ⁠Positioning: We recommend maintaining diversified exposure across all asset classes - exposure to USD, oil, gold can act as hedges in the current context

Markets Can Talk, Is #Gold Listening? Volatility, Yield Reversion Early 20th-century market speculator Jesse Livermore supposedly quipped that the "market does what it should do, but not always when." I believe that might describe what to expect with very low #stockmarket volatility, high US rates and much lower government-#bond yields in the top economies. Gold beating the AI-driven S&P 500 in 2024 may show the benefits of the out-of-favor store of value. The full report is on the Bloomberg terminal here: https://lnkd.in/eXdYaHVU {BI COMD} Bloomberg Intelligence #commodities #macroeconomic

Spoton Wealth Morning Update American markets are trading on down side Global Markets are neutral, Market is not happy with #fedminutes #spotonwealth #globalmarket #nasdaq100 #gold #silverprice #crudeoilprice #indianstockmarket #nifty #banknifty #dowjonesindustrialaverage #grasim #sunpharma #apollotyers #fed #fedminutes #inflation #usa www.spotonwealth.com

Volatility is popping across markets, from equities to commodities, currencies to treasuries, as investors pile into options markets for protection. Read our first weekly options column here:

What's happening this Friday #BeforeTheOpen? 📈 Discover key market movers and the latest inflation data that are crucial for shaping your investment strategies! With futures trending upwards, inflation metrics meeting expectations, and significant shifts in equity, fixed income, and commodities markets, there's a lot to unpack. For any investor, understanding these dynamics is essential to navigate the evolving landscape and capitalize on emerging opportunities. Stay informed and ahead of the curve with our comprehensive market insights. 🌍💹 #Equity #Bonds #Commodities #FX #Macroeconomics #Inflation #GlobalMarkets #InvestmentNews

The end of excess liquidity in the US could be red flag for Asia dollar bonds based on historical precedents. The current Fed fund expectations may be anticipating the need to loosen monetary policy on financial stability risk. This situation is one of the conflicting issues facing the Fed in 2024 and could create volatility across markets especially if macroeconomic conditions do not justify monetary largesse. https://lnkd.in/gu4Hqftc Note: Research is accessible only via the Bloomberg Terminal) To access Bloomberg Intelligence Strategy, you can type Bi STRAT <GO> in the Bloomberg Terminal. To access Bloomberg Intelligence Asia Credit Strategy Research and Data, you can type BI STRTA <GO> Fed O/N Reverse Repo vs US,Asia IG Spread

Upon closer examination of recent developments, intriguing insights emerge when analyzing the EUR/USD pair on a weekly timeframe. An initial increase in buying activity is followed by a consolidation phase before transitioning into a bearish trend. Market participants closely monitor price movements for signs of a shift in market sentiment during the consolidation phase. The subsequent downtrend highlights the dynamic nature of the forex market, possibly influenced by economic data, geopolitical events, or changes in market sentiment. Understanding these price fluctuations provides valuable insights for traders and investors to anticipate market movements and adjust trading strategies accordingly.

Nassim Taleb: Hedged-Up Wall Street Traders Still Haunted by August Meltdown. Cross-asset volatility metrics hover around year-to-date highs Equities continue to score records, risk premiums remain tight. Take a snapshot of markets right now, and it’s a picture of health. Stocks are at records, corporate bonds show no signs of worry and commodities remain buoyant on global economic optimism. Drill down though, and the outlook quickly turns murky. Alongside all the outward cheer, volatility is an equally big story in almost every asset class. Traders, who got blindsided when things turned violently against them in August and September, are piling into hedges — pushing the cost of protection up almost as fast as markets themselves. #INVESTMENTBANKING #HEDGEFUNDS #CEOS #CIOS #CFO #CFOS #CIO #ASSETMANAGEMENT #FED #INFLATION #ECONOMY #EUROPE #ASIAPACIFIC #MARKETS #COMMODITIES #ECONOMICS #PRIVATEEQUITY #MONEY #VENTURECAPITAL #INVESTING #BANKINGINDUSTRY #TREASURY #FINANCE #TRADING #STOCKS