We're happy to see our Semios hull split prediction model making a positive impact in the field! Our customers are finding it spot on, helping them manage Navel Orange Worm (NOW) pressure more effectively. #agtech
July is NUTS for California almond growers. With questionable weather, pest pressures, and market conditions converging, here are some quick thoughts: 1) Heat Wave - After a solid week of temperatures over 100°F, it looks like growers and their crops will get some reprieve this weekend. Most orchards seem to be handling the heat better than they did during the sustained heatwave in 2022. This improvement could be due to lower salt load following a couple of good leaching winters or the cooling off at night. Ironically, this timing aligns well with recommended timing for regulated deficit irrigation, where we intentionally stress trees as a best practice for hull rot protection and prompt harvest. 2) Hull Split - The industry standard treatment for Navel Orange Worm (NOW) is an insecticide application at 1-5% hull split. Split looks much more uniform than last year, and the Semios hull split prediction model is looking pretty spot on to me. I'm pushing to complete applications by the beginning of next week at the latest for Nonpareil and self-pollinating varieties. So far, NOW pressure seems manageable, although I suspect flight time is potentially being suppressed by the heat. I anticipate a spike in trap catches this weekend with cooler weather and split almonds. Given last year's heavy pressure, growers and PCAs are being aggressive with proactive treatment—fingers crossed. 3) Objective Estimate - The USDA released the objective estimate today, and it's smaller than expected. The forecast for 2024 almond production is 2.80 billion meat pounds, up 13% from last year but reflecting a decrease from May's subjective forecast. Most striking to me is the increased nut set and decreased kernel mass. The average nut set per tree increased by 3% compared to 2023, while the average kernel weight decreased by 4%. I believe that this is related to minimal fertilization, and if economic conditions were better for growers, this could have been a record-breaking crop. Remember, this estimate does not take into account dropped nuts. Overall, I feel this estimate is positive for market conditions. It's a stressful time of year for all of the industry. As my father would say, "Growing almonds is like having a baby, and we're in the final trimester." I'm optimistic for the finish of the 2024 season and hopeful that better times are ahead for CA growers. Let's get after it!