SHPE GPC’s Post

The First in the Nation Primary is now once again complete. And, what a wonderful testament to ‘civics and civility’ on the part of Granite Staters.  The nation turns its attention to New Hampshire every four years – and consistently we come through. We take our civic responsibility seriously.  We meet the candidates and ask the tough questions – but at the same time, treat them with respect.  We listen, we are discerning, and we participate – and this year in record numbers.   It's in our blood.  From grade school onwards, we in New Hampshire are imbued with the knowledge that we hold a special position in the political process and do all we can to honor that tradition.  The New Hampshire primary holds a unique and revered position, serving as the first in the nation primary in the presidential election cycle. Our small state, with our fiercely independent electorate, plays a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of presidential campaigns. And of course, our significance lies in the rigorous scrutiny we impose on candidates. First and foremost, the New Hampshire primary sets the tone for the rest of the presidential primaries and caucuses that follow. Being the initial contest, we offer candidates the opportunity to gain early momentum and establish themselves as viable contenders for their party's nomination. A strong showing in New Hampshire can propel a candidate forward, while a poor performance can quickly derail their campaign, making it a make-or-break moment for many hopefuls. Moreover, the New Hampshire primary serves as a crucial testing ground for candidates' messages, policies, and campaign strategies. Candidates must engage directly with voters, participate in town hall meetings, and address pressing issues facing the state and the nation, thereby demonstrating their readiness and suitability for the presidency. Our New Hampshire primary holds immense importance in American politics, serving as a critical barometer of public opinion and a defining moment in the presidential nomination process - reflecting the core values of democracy, accountability, and civic engagement. As such, the New Hampshire primary will continue to shape the course of presidential elections for years to come, cementing its status as a hallowed tradition in American political history!

Governing ran the opinion article below arguing that politics is too polarized in California to hold top-two primaries. This year's U.S. Senate primary race may not be the best example to draw conclusions from. Democrats had three well known members of Congress running in the race, while the Republicans had a sports celebrity running. And those were just the major contenders. Running in any statewide race is a major ordeal and candidates need to have plenty of capital, especially in major media markets, to have a real shot in the race. Congressman Adam Schiff had the major advantage in this regard. His role in the Trump impeachment hearings were an important asset. His strongest Democratic opponent, Congress member Katie Porter gained some quick recognition in her short period of time in office. Having to also contend with veteran lawmaker Barbara Lee made for a steeper climb. A large field always makes any race that much tougher. Schiff's elevating Garvey in the race was a calculated move to shore up Republican support for the former Dodger and Padre, as well as to lessen the impact of Porter and Lee. Had only one of the Congresswomen run, the story might have been quite different. The Citizens United ruling may have also had a major effect on the race. Any thoughts about where Katie Porter will or should land next, or tother thoughts about California politics or top-two primaries are welcome for discussion! #primaries #ussenate #california #electionrules #toptwoprimaries https://lnkd.in/eQUMA2sb

New Post: Presidential primaries show warning signs for Trump and Biden – Boston Herald -By JOEY CAPPELLETTI (Associated Press) LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their party’s primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday’s results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to to win the swing state in November. An “uncommitted” vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary was the first indication... By JOEY CAPPELLETTI (Associated Press) LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their party’s primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday’s results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to to win the swing state in November. An “uncommitted” vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary was the first indication of how backlash over President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza might impact his reelection campaign. Trump won his primary by a large margin, but support for rival Nikki Haley once again showed that some Republican voters may have misgivings about giving the former president another four years in the general election. Here are some takeaways from Michigan: Michigan was the last major primary state before Super Tuesday, and both sides were watching closely for implications for the November general election in one of the few genuine swing states left in the country. Biden has now cruised to victories over lesser known candidates in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, which he won in a write-in campaign. Tuesday’s results show that his standing is still strong in Michigan, which Biden returned to the Democratic column in 2020. Trump has swept all five of the early state contests, including South Carolina, the home state of rival Haley. He now heads into Super Tuesday, when 15 states and one territory hold Republican nominating contests, as the overwhelming favorite to lock up the Republican nomination. Michigan was one of three so-called blue wall states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that Trump won in 2016. He predicted a big win beforehand. Just 16 of Michigan’s 55 presidential delegates will be determined by the primary results, while the remaining delegates will be allocated during a March 2 convention. Trump’s anticipated dominance at the state convention, where grassroots activists will play a key role, will decide the allocation of the remaining 39 delegates. Michigan has become the focal point of Democratic frustration regarding the White House’s actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict. It has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation. That anger came through loud and clear on Tuesday as some voters marked “uncommitted” on their ballot in the Democratic primary. Biden still dominated the primary, but the result could be a concern in a state he won by less than 3% in 2020 and likely can’t afford to lose this year if he wants to win a second term. Organizers of the “unco

New Post: Presidential primaries show warning signs for Trump and Biden – Boston Herald -By JOEY CAPPELLETTI (Associated Press) LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their party’s primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday’s results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to to win the swing state in November. An “uncommitted” vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary was the first indication... By JOEY CAPPELLETTI (Associated Press) LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their party’s primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday’s results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to to win the swing state in November. An “uncommitted” vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary was the first indication of how backlash over President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza might impact his reelection campaign. Trump won his primary by a large margin, but support for rival Nikki Haley once again showed that some Republican voters may have misgivings about giving the former president another four years in the general election. Here are some takeaways from Michigan: Michigan was the last major primary state before Super Tuesday, and both sides were watching closely for implications for the November general election in one of the few genuine swing states left in the country. Biden has now cruised to victories over lesser known candidates in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, which he won in a write-in campaign. Tuesday’s results show that his standing is still strong in Michigan, which Biden returned to the Democratic column in 2020. Trump has swept all five of the early state contests, including South Carolina, the home state of rival Haley. He now heads into Super Tuesday, when 15 states and one territory hold Republican nominating contests, as the overwhelming favorite to lock up the Republican nomination. Michigan was one of three so-called blue wall states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that Trump won in 2016. He predicted a big win beforehand. Just 16 of Michigan’s 55 presidential delegates will be determined by the primary results, while the remaining delegates will be allocated during a March 2 convention. Trump’s anticipated dominance at the state convention, where grassroots activists will play a key role, will decide the allocation of the remaining 39 delegates. Michigan has become the focal point of Democratic frustration regarding the White House’s actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict. It has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation. That anger came through loud and clear on Tuesday as some voters marked “uncommitted” on their ballot in the Democratic primary. Biden still dominated the primary, but the result could be a concern in a state he won by less than 3% in 2020 and likely can’t afford to lose this year if he wants to win a second term. Organizers of the “unco

New Post: Presidential primaries show warning signs for Trump and Biden – Boston Herald -By JOEY CAPPELLETTI (Associated Press) LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their party’s primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday’s results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to to win the swing state in November. An “uncommitted” vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary was the first indication... By JOEY CAPPELLETTI (Associated Press) LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their party’s primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday’s results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to to win the swing state in November. An “uncommitted” vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary was the first indication of how backlash over President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza might impact his reelection campaign. Trump won his primary by a large margin, but support for rival Nikki Haley once again showed that some Republican voters may have misgivings about giving the former president another four years in the general election. Here are some takeaways from Michigan: Michigan was the last major primary state before Super Tuesday, and both sides were watching closely for implications for the November general election in one of the few genuine swing states left in the country. Biden has now cruised to victories over lesser known candidates in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, which he won in a write-in campaign. Tuesday’s results show that his standing is still strong in Michigan, which Biden returned to the Democratic column in 2020. Trump has swept all five of the early state contests, including South Carolina, the home state of rival Haley. He now heads into Super Tuesday, when 15 states and one territory hold Republican nominating contests, as the overwhelming favorite to lock up the Republican nomination. Michigan was one of three so-called blue wall states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that Trump won in 2016. He predicted a big win beforehand. Just 16 of Michigan’s 55 presidential delegates will be determined by the primary results, while the remaining delegates will be allocated during a March 2 convention. Trump’s anticipated dominance at the state convention, where grassroots activists will play a key role, will decide the allocation of the remaining 39 delegates. Michigan has become the focal point of Democratic frustration regarding the White House’s actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict. It has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation. That anger came through loud and clear on Tuesday as some voters marked “uncommitted” on their ballot in the Democratic primary. Biden still dominated the primary, but the result could be a concern in a state he won by less than 3% in 2020 and likely can’t afford to lose this year if he wants to win a second term. Organizers of the “unco

The Republican race could already be over in weeks In one of the recent Global Political Risks reports for ECR Research and ICC Consultants BV I explained why Trump is the slight favorite to win the Presidential election. Of course, he first needs to grab the Republican primaries. For FiveThirtyEight, G Elliott Morris clarifies why Trump's competitors DeSantis and Haley need to win early, or it's over. A couple of excerpts from his ABC News piece: "Based on polling and demographic and political characteristics in each state and territory, we've calculated how many delegates Trump, DeSantis, Haley and the other GOP candidates need to win in each contest to be on track for the nomination. In the Iowa caucuses next Monday, 40 delegates are up for grabs, and DeSantis and Haley need to win 22 and 26, respectively, in order to be on track for an overall delegate majority. If that sounds like a lot, that's because it is!  the reason DeSantis and Haley have such high benchmarks early on is that we expect them to perform worse in later-voting states. Or, to put it differently, Trump is expected to run the table after Super Tuesday. Of the 197 delegates available in January and February, our model says Trump needs to win just 53 (27 percent) of them to be on track to win the nomination. Things really take off on March 5 — Super Tuesday. Of the 874 delegates that will be up for grabs that day, we estimate Trump will need 474 (54 percent) to be on track for the GOP nod. If all states voted today, our model suggests the former president would win roughly 2,210 delegates out of the total 2,287 that could possibly be allocated to him." https://lnkd.in/egT2cWKC #uspolitics #politics #politicalrisk #donaldtrump #republicanparty #nikkihaley #rondesantis

Day 1 of the Republican Convention led to the announcement of Senator JD Vance as former President Trump's running mate. The latest polling shows in the presidential battleground states that Biden narrowly won over Trump four years ago there is a dead heat: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump has a slight edge in Arizona. These states are key because with any kind of momentum, Trump could provide tailwinds to the Republican Senate candidates in those same states and win all of them in addition to the top three races most likely to flip to Republican control on November 5th – West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. However, many Democrats have outraised opponents, are gearing up to outperform Biden, and may sweep some or all of these Senate seats. While all the focus is on the top of the ticket, these key Congressional races are worth watching because they will determine who chairs committees, sets funding levels, drafts the legislation that makes it to the floor, and what priorities are addressed in Congress. Check out this Senate rundown and remember to register to vote! #Elections2024 #elections #Congress #vote #politics

New Post: Presidential primaries show warning signs for Trump and Biden – Boston Herald -By JOEY CAPPELLETTI (Associated Press) LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their party’s primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday’s results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to to win the swing state in November. An “uncommitted” vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary was the first indication... By JOEY CAPPELLETTI (Associated Press) LANSING, Mich. (AP) — Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump easily won their party’s primaries in Michigan, but Tuesday’s results showed that both candidates have cause for concern in their bid to to win the swing state in November. An “uncommitted” vote in Michigan’s Democratic primary was the first indication of how backlash over President Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza might impact his reelection campaign. Trump won his primary by a large margin, but support for rival Nikki Haley once again showed that some Republican voters may have misgivings about giving the former president another four years in the general election. Here are some takeaways from Michigan: Michigan was the last major primary state before Super Tuesday, and both sides were watching closely for implications for the November general election in one of the few genuine swing states left in the country. Biden has now cruised to victories over lesser known candidates in South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire, which he won in a write-in campaign. Tuesday’s results show that his standing is still strong in Michigan, which Biden returned to the Democratic column in 2020. Trump has swept all five of the early state contests, including South Carolina, the home state of rival Haley. He now heads into Super Tuesday, when 15 states and one territory hold Republican nominating contests, as the overwhelming favorite to lock up the Republican nomination. Michigan was one of three so-called blue wall states, including Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, that Trump won in 2016. He predicted a big win beforehand. Just 16 of Michigan’s 55 presidential delegates will be determined by the primary results, while the remaining delegates will be allocated during a March 2 convention. Trump’s anticipated dominance at the state convention, where grassroots activists will play a key role, will decide the allocation of the remaining 39 delegates. Michigan has become the focal point of Democratic frustration regarding the White House’s actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict. It has the largest concentration of Arab Americans in the nation. That anger came through loud and clear on Tuesday as some voters marked “uncommitted” on their ballot in the Democratic primary. Biden still dominated the primary, but the result could be a concern in a state he won by less than 3% in 2020 and likely can’t afford to lose this year if he wants to win a second term. Organizers of the “unco

https://lnkd.in/gvv_8UCy "Biden’s withdrawal created a scenario that was nearly unprecedented in modern times. The comparison many observers reached for was the 1968 Democratic convention in Chicago — a contentious nomination process set against a backdrop of antiwar protests and a violent police response. The episode led to the creation of the modern primary system — and it explains a lot about why parties stick with it. Before that point, different versions of primaries existed, but they didn’t matter as much. Not all candidates chose to participate in them, and some did so more as a political tactic than a requirement, experts say. For example, John F. Kennedy famously used the 1960 West Virginia primary to show that a Catholic candidate could win support in Protestant parts of the country. So candidates competed in primaries, but in the end, party bosses controlled the candidate selection process. That became most evident at the 1968 convention. Then-President Lyndon B. Johnson, facing poor approval ratings and dwindling support, had decided not to run for reelection. Robert F. Kennedy, a leading candidate for the Democratic nomination, had been assassinated two months earlier, immediately after sweeping the California primary. Democrats were, as some like to say, in disarray. At the convention, delegates nominated the sitting vice president, Hubert Humphrey, who hadn’t competed in a single primary. Humphrey went on to lose to Republican Richard Nixon, and Democrats decided there had to be a better way. They appointed a commission headed by then-Sen. George McGovern of South Dakota to come up with it. The commission was “the biggest single change for the process of presidential selection in American history,” said Byron Shafer, who wrote a book about it called “Quiet Revolution: Struggle for the Democratic Party and the Shaping of Post-Reform Politics.”"