#ICYMI: State Street senior global macro strategist, MARVIN LOH, discusses Federal Reserve rate cuts, his prediction on the cutting cycle, and its long-term implications on risk. Hear his full discussion with Bloomberg: https://lnkd.in/ge7HuS2r
State Street’s Post
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Are we finished with volatile markets? Scott Wren discusses how there are a number of potential issues that could spark financial-market volatility in the months ahead. We believe the likely main volatility trigger is still the timing of potential Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts.
Buckle up for more volatility
saf.wellsfargoadvisors.com
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Is there a potential increase in economic activity in the upcoming months? Our experts anticipate that economic momentum could pick up in the coming months, potentially sparking a modest 'late-stage mini cycle'. Furthermore, they expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later than initially projected, but more than what is currently priced in by markets. Geopolitical risks have also been on the rise. Christopher Koslowski and Mario Montagnani explore the impact on their asset allocation strategies in the latest CIO Update. Check out further details here: https://bit.ly/3QuVrxU #AssetAllocation #economicoutlook
Macroeconomic update for May 2024
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Investors have been recalibrating their expectations. There is a lot going on in the world that could affect the value of financial markets – wars, tensions between major powers, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices – just to name a few. Last week, it was Federal Reserve policy. The possibility that the Fed might keep rates higher for longer shook investors... click to read our full market commentary.
Weekly Market Commentary | April 23, 2024
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Business Loan Officer at Jovia Financial Credit Union formerly known as NEFCU Commercial Real Estate Lending
the Fed has to get out of the interest-rate-setting business and let the capital markets do their job most economists are terrible forecasters and problem solvers. What we need now is a knowledgeable, common-sense pragmatist.
The Federal Reserve Faces A Stormy Future — Forbes
apple.news
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https://lnkd.in/gUFX3spb Always drives me nuts to hear the talking heads in the media so focused on the Fed and when they will start 'easing' again. Probably more self serving for their business interests than good policy at this time. This article once again reminds investors that there is likely to still be many more months to go before the excessive money supply gets drained from the system and many tools will affect that process along the way. Good to be positive about the economy but also prudent to be aware of what is going on behind the scenes.
The Fed Is Tightening More Than It Says
barrons.com
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After the 2008 financial crisis, low interest rates and easy monetary policy became the norm. However, a look at the preceding decades tells us that this stable environment by no means reflects a “normal state” for the financial markets. Between 1970 and 2000, the US Federal Reserve’s base rate was largely around five percent. Investors had to navigate a climate of prolonged high interest rates shaped by a polarized world order and, until the 1990s, geopolitical tensions on a global scale. Although the underlying factors of these decades may not be comparable to those of today, certain parallels can be drawn when it comes to market dynamics in the high interest rate environment. This not only gives business historians something to talk about, it also provides investors with the opportunity to rediscover new return potential in familiar asset classes. #Vontobel #RediscoverReturns
Rediscover returns - Discover a world of crisis-tested sources of income
vontobel.com
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After the 2008 financial crisis, low interest rates and easy monetary policy became the norm. However, a look at the preceding decades tells us that this stable environment by no means reflects a “normal state” for the financial markets. Between 1970 and 2000, the US Federal Reserve’s base rate was largely around five percent. Investors had to navigate a climate of prolonged high interest rates shaped by a polarized world order and, until the 1990s, geopolitical tensions on a global scale. Although the underlying factors of these decades may not be comparable to those of today, certain parallels can be drawn when it comes to market dynamics in the high interest rate environment. This not only gives business historians something to talk about, it also provides investors with the opportunity to rediscover new return potential in familiar asset classes. #Vontobel #RediscoverReturns
Rediscover returns - Discover a world of crisis-tested sources of income
vontobel.com
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Mercedes-Benz / Pure Michigan-Intelligence unlike anything you have seen Miami Beach Palm Beach Florida-’Wall Street South’ Brickell Bay Drive Miami Florida Private Equity growth equity Merger and Acquisitions Advisory
Harvard University Professor Lawrence Summers Says Fed Is ‘Wrong’ on Neutral, Warns on Rate-Cut Bets : neutral rate more likely above 4% : urged Powell and his colleagues to be particularly careful about shifting toward rate cuts “The Fed needs to be very careful in its judgment about what would be an epochal shift from the regime we’ve had for the last several years” He also cautioned that financial markets may be pricing in too much in terms of rate cuts for 2024 “It’d be a real mistake for people to regard that as any kind of certainty” he said of Fed easing this year : last month he had indicated about a 15% chance that the Fed doesn’t lower rates this year. On Friday he said, “If anything that 15% may have drifted slightly upwards” : Fed officials have projected policy rate at 2.5% long term : Federal Reserve is well off on its estimate of a neutral setting for interest rates, and that there’s an increasing chance that policymakers don’t end up lowering their benchmark this year
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As the year progresses, the effects of tighter monetary policy will continue to transmit to the real economy. Salman Ahmed, Global Head of Macro and Strategic Asset Allocation, speaks to Dan Murphy on CNBC Capital Connection to discuss the potential of Fed rate cuts, what it means for markets and where opportunities lie. Watch now: https://lnkd.in/etW7vVGr
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