Stateside Associates’ Post

No president has withdrawn as an incumbent from an election since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1968 - until now. Tomorrow, join the Organization of American Historians for "President Biden's Exit from the Election in Historical Perspective," a webinar featuring speakers from the University of Washington, University of Pennsylvania, and Princeton. The speakers will look at the history that's behind the President's decision and what the implications will be for the election. The webinar is open to the first 500 to register. Register: https://bit.ly/3WLGlaR

What issues will Harris and Trump focus on during their September 10 debate? The debate represents a crucial opportunity for the candidates to directly appeal to swing voters and draw a clear distinction on the issues that matter most. Penta’s Swing State Snapshot examines how the top issues are playing out in major media markets across the seven pivotal swing states that will determine the outcome of the 2024 election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin: https://lnkd.in/ezcjpmph

With an election looming in November, CEOs and their reports are spending a lot of time contemplating what changes are on the horizon. Enter presidential historian Tevi Troy with his new book “The Power and the Money: The Epic Clashes Between Commanders in Chief and Titans of Industry.” “For current and future CEOs, this book can be a guide for how to engage with an increasingly powerful and involved federal government, especially in our era in which both Democrats and Republicans target corporations in the rhetoric and often in the policy prescriptions,” Troy writes. “For the rest of us, this is a cautionary tale of what happens when the federal government gets too big and too enmeshed in the activities of the producers and innovators in our economy: our costs go up while our freedom diminishes.” Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gjZ54nrp

This is the third in a series of posts where I look at the states that were won by Donald Trump in 2016 but then flipped away from him in 2020. It examines some of the factors that made these states go from red to blue, compares the 2020 presidential contest alongside other recent elections (with some caveats), and discusses what could happen in 2024. The first post looked at Arizona, and the second looked at Georgia. Today looks at Michigan. Michigan's recent presidential election history differs greatly from Arizona and Georgia. While those two states had been mostly Republican, Michigan had been reliably Democratic, voting as such from 1992 to 2012. Can Trump repeat his 2016 feat in the state for 2024? Can recent governor, U.S. Senate, and state legislative elections also give us some clue about 2024? Read on. And if you enjoy the article, please share with your network. #politicalscience #politics #politicalanalysis #politicalcampaigns #2024elections #pennsylvania #politicalinsights #presidentialelection #presidentialelection2024 #president #donaldtrump #joebiden

My insights on today's top stories are up at The Washington Update! Head over to take a look and be sure to share your thoughts in the comments!

Presidential debate is tomorrow. Where does the race stand? In summary, my model is currently forecasting former President Trump has a 39.9% (33.1% in my early September update) probability of winning the popular vote and Vice President Harris has a 50.0% (58,5% in my early September update) probability of winning the popular vote.  The difference between the two candidates IS NOT statistically significant.  This difference in the probabilities of each candidate IS NOT statistically different at this time.  Which means that the popular vote is a tossup at this time.  This updated analysis shows that the winner of the Electoral College and the Presidency is a toss up at this time.   Remember, there is some time between now and the election day.  But we are entering the home stretch.  This model is  fluid and subject to change. You can access my 2024 Presidential Race Center at https://lnkd.in/ecsmENyn By Amos B Robinson | www.RobinsonAnalytics.com

GET THE MEMO: We’re ready. No matter who wins the election, the ACLU has a plan. You’ve seen the Trump & Harris memos, now see our plan for the state. The Connecticut Memo is our playbook for election safeguarding, Project 2025, and a Trump win scenario. We’ve also included plans for a Harris win. https://lnkd.in/enRC57er

Insightful Analysis: Biden's Memory and Intentions The video transcript discusses the perception of Joe Biden as a well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory, a narrative that has been consistently repeated leading up to the election. Despite this portrayal, the speaker emphasizes that people are able to see beyond this characterization and form their own opinions of Biden. The repetition of this narrative is highlighted as a key aspect of the election campaign. #specialcounsel #congress #news #roberthur #abcnews #congressionalhearing #vizard

Are you wondering what may happen at the state level if a governor is chosen as a Vice Presidential candidate and Kamala Harris wins the election? Various scenarios could play out with state-level and down-ballot implications. Learn more in our latest blog. For insights on how these changes might affect your business and the future political arena, please contact Johnathan Lozier, Stateside Senior Vice President and Principal.

Ron DeSantis ends his presidential campaign, which further cements Donald Trump as the eventual Republican nominee for president. DeSantis endorsed Trump while taking a shot at Nikki Haley as reported in The Wall Street Journal: "Ron DeSantis ended his presidential bid, a crushing setback for a figure who once represented the strongest hope for Republicans wanting to move past Donald Trump but one who misread the former president’s durability, overestimated his own political skill and struggled through reboot after reboot. "The Florida governor withdrew on Sunday, two days before New Hampshire voters were poised to hand Trump another primary win. He announced the decision in a social media video. “I am today suspending my campaign,” DeSantis said. “It’s clear to me that a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance.” He said he was endorsing Trump “because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear, or a repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents.” "DeSantis placed a distant second in Iowa’s caucuses and insisted he would continue in the race. But he was polling badly in New Hampshire behind Haley, the former South Carolina governor, and Trump. "The support DeSantis was drawing in New Hampshire will likely go to Trump, widening his lead. Another decisive victory here for the former president could make him nearly impossible to stop. Trump is performing strong in South Carolina, which holds its primary Feb. 24." #trump #desantis #republicans #conservatives #newhampshire #southcarolina #states #uspolitics #elections2024 #usa