Stephen Wilkinson’s Post

Scientists are calling for a new Category 6 for hurricanes — because they already exist - With storms growing more powerful, researchers say we're underestimating the risk https://lnkd.in/di5hi-4X #category6 #hurricanes #climatechange #severeweather #SaffirSimpsonHurricaneWindScale #severewinds #wind #winds #hurricane #hurricaneseason

Here's a great resource from Colorado State University's Tropical Weather & Climate Research. They list the likelihood of states AND counties to have a named storm or #hurricane this year. They are using a "new methodology for calculating the impacts of tropical cyclones for each state and county/parish along the Gulf and East Coasts, tropical cyclone-prone provinces of Canada, Atlantic-facing states of coastal Mexico, islands in the Caribbean and countries in Central America." https://lnkd.in/g4SVCeZz

#Hurricanes #Atlantic2024 #PhilKlotzbach #MichaelBell #AlexanderDesRosiers #LeviSilvers, #ColoradoStateUniversity #CSU "An extremely active Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2024, the Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane forecasting team says in its latest seasonal forecast, issued April 4. Led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, with co-authors Dr. Michael Bell, Alexander DesRosiers, and Levi Silvers, the CSU team is calling for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 210 (171% of average). In comparison, the long-term averages for the period 1991-2020 were 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, 3.2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 123. The forecast is the most aggressive one ever issued in the 30 years that the CSU team has been issuing April forecasts. If the numbers verify, the number of named storms would rank as the third-highest on record; the number of hurricanes, the fifth-highest; the number of major hurricanes, the ninth-highest; and the ACE index, the ninth-highest. The 2024 forecast falls just short of predicting a hyperactive season, defined as having an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of at least 214 (175% above average). Only seven seasons since records began in 1851 have met this definition: 1933 (ACE of 259), 2005 (ACE of 245), 1893 (ACE of 231), 1926 (ACE of 230), 1995 (ACE of 227), 2004 (ACE of 227), and 2017 (ACE of 225). The CSU outlook predicts much higher odds of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. than usual: 62% (long-term average: 43%). It gives a 34% chance for a major hurricane to hit the East Coast or Florida Peninsula (long-term average: 21%), and a 42% chance for the Gulf Coast (long-term average: 27%). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 66% chance of having at least one major hurricane pass through (long-term average: 47%). The CSU forecast uses a statistical model honed from 40+ years of past Atlantic hurricane statistics, plus dynamical model output from four groups: ECMWF (European model), UKMET, Japan Meteorological Agency, and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC). It’s worth noting that two of these five models (the CSU statistical model and the CMCC dynamical model) predicted that 2024 would tie the record for most major hurricanes (seven) and set a new all-time ACE record (269-280). ..."

An "extremely active" Atlantic #hurricane season is on the horizon, with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes projected this year for April outlooks. 🌪️ A potent mix of record warm sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic and a rapidly developing La Niña sets the stage for a supercharged hurricane season, unlike anything our current data can compare to. Ocean heat content is at June levels in early April, reducing the effectiveness of trade winds to cool the waters and potentially leading to more intense storm development. With no historical precedent for a La Niña event amidst such warm Atlantic temperatures, the threat level is unprecedented. The risk of hurricane and major hurricane landfalls along the U.S. coastline is significantly higher this season. The World Meteorological Organization stated that the causes of the ultra-warm North Atlantic waters underlying influence of human-caused climate change, amplifying the urgency and intensity of natural phenomena. This #hurricane season will test our #resilience, #earlywarningsforall will be crucial. Preparation and vigilance will be key. Stay informed, stay safe, and let's support each other through whatever this season brings our way. https://lnkd.in/edU3ZD2x

Confirmed that both the average & median for six professional forecasters as of April 2024 is 22 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes; well within the "above normal" historical range (https://lnkd.in/g9PRqPFq). Colorado State University specifically calls for the highest number of hurricanes in its 41 years of forecasting. Atlantic Main Development Weekly Sea Surface Temperature is ~79 degrees F which is also well above any recorded data going back to 1981 (https://lnkd.in/g3t9NeYc).

Do We Need A Category 6?:  #Hurricanes are becoming so powerful that we need to add a Category 6 definition for the superstorms coming our way. A new study argues that an expansion of the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale, which was developed in the 1950s, is in line to more adequately warn people about climate-charged storms. That scale defines Category 5 as any storm with 156 mph or stronger winds—but the study’s authors identified at least six storms since 2013 that had winds that were over 190 mph. According to the authors, there is a connection between #climatechange — that warming of the atmosphere, the globe, from the burning of #fossilfuels — to hurricanes and #tropical cyclones. Climate change increases temperature and moisture — which are the sources of the energy for a hurricane or a tropical cyclone — and wind speed increases https://lnkd.in/epyXNaQi

A warming #ocean and La Niña form a potent recipe for an active #HurricaneSeason in the North Atlantic. And odds are we may see both factors converging this year.   We’re currently experiencing record-breaking sea surface temperatures in the tropical north Atlantic and these are expected to continue. And the chances we enter into a La Niña phase during the peak hurricane season (August-October) are above 70% according to NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration.   So while it’s a little early to forecast, these two drivers are a strong indication that 2024 may turn out to be a rather active #hurricane year. This is following 2023 where even though we were in an El Niño phase (which typically has a suppressing effect on hurricanes), it was the fourth most active season for named storms in the Atlantic basin. See more details below.

Hurricanes tend to intensify in warmer climates, which makes rising temperatures due to climate change an ideal situation for hurricane generation. This increase in intensity could be defined by increases in speeds of more than 35 miles per hour in less than 24 hours. This may leave authorities helpless due to the reduced intensification time. These shortened intensification times are a new feature of hurricane behavior but are becoming a common feature at least once per hurricane season. Although it is not a certainty that there will be an increase in the number of hurricanes per season, it is crucial for governments to be prepared for any eventuality, as global warming has added uncertainty that could cause catastrophic damage by catching cities and towns unawares. Read more 👉 https://lttr.ai/AOTXk #ClimateChange #Hurricanes #StayInformed #Resilience #HurricaneHavoc

It may feel like a "slow" start to the North America hurricane season (the first named storm typically forms in mid to late June), but we've got upcoming Tropical Storm Alberto followed by another tropical system forming in the same location, and AG2 Trader customers can read all about it in our Trader Blog. As meteorologist Edward Vallee says, "The exact path, while a good starting point, can be misleading as it pertains to tropical system impacts. At Atmospheric G2, our meteorologists provide valuable insights beyond the cookie cutter discussions found throughout the meteorological world today - details and context matter!" If forecast details and context matter in your business, reach out to us today: https://lnkd.in/eWtkvWrc Our meteorologists can be your meteorologists. #AG2trader #energy #energytrading #weather #forecast #commoditytrading #weatherforecasting #weatherdata #weatherforecasts #europe #northamerica #hurricane #hurricaneseason

“ #Hurricanes are becoming so strong due to the climate crisis that the classification of them should be expanded to include a “category 6” storm, furthering the scale from the standard 1 to 5” #nationalsecurity #emergencypreparedness #climatechange This is not a surprise and appreciate the recognition of increasing frequency and intensity. This requires #community #academic #privatesector and #government to build greater #resilience while reducing the cause. The cost is growing as noted by NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration Those disproportionately impacted will continue to suffer #homelessness poor #health and #mentalhealth impacts