Stephen Zeng’s Post

Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10% chance of a 100x payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you’re still going to be wrong 9 times out of 10. We all know that if you swing for the fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but you’re also going to hit some home runs. The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a truncated outcome distribution. When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most you can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1000 runs. This long-tailed distribution of returns if why it’s important to be bold. Big winners pay for so many experiments. - Jeff Bezos

Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10 percent chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you're still going to be wrong nine times out of ten... We all know that if you swing for the fences, you will strike out a lot but also hit some home runs. The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a truncated outcome distribution. When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most runs you can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000. The long-tailed distributions of returns are why it's important to be told. Big winners pay for so many experiments. Jeff Bezos

Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10 percent chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you're still going to be wrong nine times out of ten... We all know that if you swing for the fences, you will strike out a lot but also hit some home runs. The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a truncated outcome distribution. When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most runs you can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000. The long-tailed distributions of returns are why it's important to be told. Big winners pay for so many experiments. Jeff Bezos

Always be BOLD no matter what ! Outsized Returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10% chance of a 100x payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you're still going to strike out a lot, but you're also going to hit some home runs. The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a truncated outcome distribution. When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most runs you can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000 runs. This long-tailed distribution of returns is why it's important to be bold. Big Winners pay for so many experiments. - Jeff Bezos

Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a 10 percent chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you're still going to be wrong nine times out of ten . If you swing for the fences, you're going to strike out a lot, but you're also going to hit some home runs. The difference between baseball and business, however, is that baseball has a truncated outcome distribution. When you swing, no matter how well you connect with the ball, the most runs you can get is four. In business, every once in a while, when you step up to the plate, you can score 1,000 runs. This long-tailed distribution of returns is why it's important to be bold. Big winners pay for so many experiments. — Jeff Bezos

Here is a concept every investor (and baseball fan) should understand: Reversion to the mean. In mid-April, I posted about how Aaron Judge was off to a slow start. He was batting about 100 points below his career average of .281. Fast forward to today and his average for the season is back in line with his career average. That’s not surprising at all. He reverted to his mean. That being said, it has taken an average during May of .376 to get him back to that point. He is unlikely to sustain that pace as well since it is too far above his career average. Investing in assets can be just like this. Assets tend to revert back to their long-term averages. Just beware that slumps and hot streaks in assets can last over a decade. Patience and a long-term plan are key to staying the course!

The World Series is in full swing ⚾ and it got me thinking… Is your partner firm just collecting you, then putting you on a shelf like you used to do with your baseball cards as a kid? "Yep, got him." Now what? Is your partner firm helping you get the at-bats you need to continue your growth trajectory? Working with you to capitalize on grand slam opportunities like the great wealth transfer? Your partner firm may tout support like compliance and technology, but so what? Those are minor league table stakes. In an industry increasingly characterized by organic growth foul balls and checked swings, advisors at Integrated Partners are batting 1.000. We’re right there next to them, providing the coaching and resources they need to find the gaps, up-level their skills, and hit home runs with high-end prospects and clients. Want in? Let’s play ball: https://lnkd.in/gXDFFHdA

“My first rule of hitting was to get a good ball to hit.” – Ted Williams In baseball, as in investing, patience and selectivity are key. Ted Williams, one of the greatest hitters, knew that success doesn’t come from swinging at every pitch—it’s about waiting for the right opportunity. In investing, this translates to being deliberate, analyzing carefully, and only acting when the right opportunity presents itself. “In investing, when the right opportunity comes along, hit it hard.” – Stanley Druckenmiller When you finally find that opportunity, it’s time to act decisively. Stanley Druckenmiller’s words remind us that once conditions are favorable, conviction is essential. Whether it’s in business, life, or investing—wait for the right moment, and when it comes, give it your all. #Investing #Opportunities #Patience #Success #TedWilliams #StanleyDruckenmiller #Strategy #BusinessGrowth

Today was a great day! ✅ Dodgers Championship Parade in the City of Angels ✅ Private dinner with Mayor Bass ✅ 1st day of a new month and opportunity to get after it 💪🏽 Did I mention private dinner with Mayor Bass? What I like about private intimate meetings, separate from those held with the general public is that different conversations are had and different connections are made. It pays to be in THE ROOM! If you’re a CEO, Founder or Business Owner… The room to be in on 12/5 -12/6 will be in Los Angeles at the “Profit Driven Solutions for CEOs, Founders and Business Owners”, a 2 Day In-Person Business intensive. In this room you’ll learn: • The exact tax strategies the elite tax planners use to massively reduce their tax liabilities • How to achieve the profit needed from your business on a consistent and predictable basis • How to have your business work for you vs you work for your business If you’re ready to start profiting and stop stressing… Let’s connect and reply “Intensive” for more info. #LosAngeles #Dodgers #taxstrategy #CEO #businessowner #Founder

⚾📈Picture this: A baseball player is up to bat; the pitcher is 60 feet away, where a baseball is thrown at 100 MPH (give or take); the batter is meant to make split second decisions to swing or not. Talk about a difficult call in a short period of time! Now think about those decisions in terms of investment management. Although there are not reports flying at 100 MPH, there are many factors that need to be assessed in a short period of time. Clint McGarvin, CFA, slows the pitch down in his recent writing, follow the link to read more. https://lnkd.in/grf84iph #InvestmentStrategy #WealthManagement #MarketAnalysis #Baseball