STOA Capital’s Post

Real GDP rose 3.2% at the annual rate in Q4 2023, slowing from 4.9% growth in Q3. This was slightly lower than the prior estimate of 3.3% growth. Overall, the U.S. economy continued to show signs of strength and resilience despite ongoing challenges. In the fourth quarter, economic growth was buoyed particularly by consumer spending, which contributed 2.00 percentage points to top-line growth. This is a sign that Americans continued to open up their pocketbooks (albeit slowing from the torrid pace of Q3), lifting up the economy. The only drag on growth in the revised data was private inventory spending.   The U.S. economy grew by 2.5% in 2023, up from 1.9% in 2022. The forecast is for 2.6% growth in 2024, with the U.S. economy expanding by at least 2.5%. Yet, even as the probability of a “soft landing” has increased in recent months, there continues to be sizable downside risks in the economic outlook. #GDP #economy #outlook #resilience #consumer https://lnkd.in/eacwtgUa

The U.S. economy continues to chug along with a 3.3% annualized GDP growth in Q4 2023. Does this mean the Federal Reserve will wait until later in 2024 to cut rates? #economicgrowth #realgdp #interestrates https://lnkd.in/ezXQTRpp

GDP growth isn't where it should be. The recent U.S. economic update showed #GDP growth at 1.6%, falling short of the expected 2.4%, alongside persistent #inflation. This led to bond and stock market declines. However, consumer spending, particularly in #services, remained strong, indicating domestic resilience. Now, remember the terms here (GDP, inflation) and where they should float with respect to each other. GDP growth typically outpacing inflation is a common expectation. This indicates expanding economic activity without a corresponding rise in #prices. We aren't achieving that. No worries. Not significant. Back to the original statement saying, "services remained strong indicating domestic resilience." Service, of all kind, is the dominant driver for U.S. #production (and world production) and tends to remain stable, regardless of circumstance. It's been our strong suit for more than 50 years. We would do well with subtle downward pressure on #interest rates. It's safe to admit that big checks from deep-pocketed institutions have promulgated positive market activity, but the market is somewhat soft for the standard consumer. While there's no trauma being experienced, there seems to be a bit of inefficiency. Lowering the cost of #capital would give us wider consumption — and do a bit of good. We can do this and continue to monitor PCE, employment, and geo-politics. Real estate activity is active. Architecture activity is active. Keeping the ship upright for so long, fiscally speaking, will pay dividends when things turn. We're excited to see the result. .⁠ .⁠ .⁠ #avlv #sustainable #architecture #development #realestate #contemporary #modern #kitchen #kitchendesign #luxury #phillydevelopment #phillyrealestate #phillyinvestors 

In mid-2022, confusion abounded on the state of the #economy. Some pundits claimed that the economy had gone into #recession. Specifically, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the annualized pace of #GDP growth was negative in Q2 of 2022, which followed a negative print in Q1. Two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth means the economy is in recession, right? Hold that thought. Fast forward to present day — more than two years later. On Thursday, the BEA released an update on U.S. GDP. Among other things, it provided revisions to older measurement periods. Among those revisions, the Q2 2022 GDP growth estimate flipped to positive from negative. More discussion here: https://lnkd.in/epDAkjBJ

Even lower GDP growth (corrected) estimates out this past week, down from 1.6% to 1.3% due to in large part to a reduction in consumer spending. That's telling given what we are seeing in consumer sentiment. Initially reported at 1.6% growth in April, the revised annualized pace is now 1.3%, with adjustments largely due to a reduction in consumer spending. "The update to the first quarter growth metric primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending," the BEA noted, with personal consumption growing at 2%, a decrease from the previously reported 2.5%. Some are trying to spin this as good news. “The weaker headline growth statistic looks discouraging, but it belies solid underlying momentum as the economy’s core – private domestic sales to domestic purchasers – showed a healthy expansion of 2.5% annualized," said Oren Klachkin at Nationwide. But I am not so sure that is good news. More below. #gdp #growth #economy https://lnkd.in/eSNSEZvm

WEEK OF JANUARY 29, 2024 Market Update The fourth-quarter GDP growth report surprised to the upside, showing that the economy grew faster than expected. In addition, we saw signs of moderating inflation. Both were indications of a resilient U.S. economy with more historically normal levels of inflation. Quick Hits💡 1. Report releases: The fourth-quarter GDP report showed that the economy grew at a faster rate than expected. 2. Financial market data: Small-caps rallied on the fourth-quarter GDP surprise and signs of lower inflation. 3. Looking ahead: Consumer confidence, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and employment are key points of interest in the week ahead. Read the full article: https://buff.ly/48RLJwp #MarketUpdate #GDP #FinancialMarket #USEconomy

WEEK OF JANUARY 29, 2024 Market Update The fourth-quarter GDP growth report surprised to the upside, showing that the economy grew faster than expected. In addition, we saw signs of moderating inflation. Both were indications of a resilient U.S. economy with more historically normal levels of inflation. Quick Hits💡 1. Report releases: The fourth-quarter GDP report showed that the economy grew at a faster rate than expected. 2. Financial market data: Small-caps rallied on the fourth-quarter GDP surprise and signs of lower inflation. 3. Looking ahead: Consumer confidence, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and employment are key points of interest in the week ahead. Read the full article: https://buff.ly/48RLJwp #MarketUpdate #GDP #FinancialMarket #USEconomy

WEEK OF JANUARY 29, 2024 Market Update The fourth-quarter GDP growth report surprised to the upside, showing that the economy grew faster than expected. In addition, we saw signs of moderating inflation. Both were indications of a resilient U.S. economy with more historically normal levels of inflation. Quick Hits💡 1. Report releases: The fourth-quarter GDP report showed that the economy grew at a faster rate than expected. 2. Financial market data: Small-caps rallied on the fourth-quarter GDP surprise and signs of lower inflation. 3. Looking ahead: Consumer confidence, Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, and employment are key points of interest in the week ahead. Read the full article: https://buff.ly/48RLJwp #MarketUpdate #GDP #FinancialMarket #USEconomy

US Q2 GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations at 2.8% #cryptonews - The US economy showed robust growth in the second quarter, with the GDP rising by an impressive 2.8% annualized rate. This figure significantly outstripped both the anticipated 2.0% growth and the previous quarter’s 1.4% increase, marking a positive economic outlook. Strong GDP Performance The 2.8% GDP growth in Q2 reflects the economy’s resilience and strength. https://lnkd.in/dR27i5AD

Fourth Quarter GDP Revised Upward The US economy grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the third estimate. This is an upward revision from 3.2% in the second estimate. Real GDP growth grew at a 4.9% pace in the third quarter. Gross domestic product figures go through several rounds of estimates, as additional information becomes available. The upward revision in this third estimate comes from somewhat stronger growth nearly across the board, including consumer spending, which expanded at a 2.2% pace, compared with 2% in the 2nd estimate. Residential and nonresidential fixed investment and government spending were also revised upward. Inventory investment was revised downward and was negative for the quarter after a big jump in the third quarter. There was no change in the GDP-based estimate of inflation, which remained at 1.9%. The strength in consumer spending, while a show of the economy's resilience, has been of some concern from an inflation-fighting perspective, since excess demand for goods and services places upward pressure on prices. Consumers pulled back in January, with consumer spending on an annualized monthly basis slowing from 3.2% in December to 2.1% in January. Tomorrow we get income and spending data for February. #gdp #datarevision #consumerspending #inflation