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📌Global bond yields keep rising, reaching levels last seen during November 2023, when expectations for rate cuts were only small talk and inflation worries were high. 📌And while the ECB is ready to deliver a rate cut by June 2024, various report across the Atlantic show the Fed to take a more patient approach. 📌As the Fed shifts from its “transitory inflation” narrative, data validates that inflation is persistent: a key inflation metric in the US, the PCE index, rose by 3.7% QoQ (expected: 3.4%, previous: 2.0%). 📌Traders are now betting that by December the Fed will have cut rates only once; the probability of a rate cut in June fell to just ~11% from a high ~65% a month ago. 📌The Fed meets this week for a policy update when all ears will be tuned to Jerome Powell's comments on the inflation data and its impact on rate policy ahead. You can get in touch to discuss further with our 7Q Investment Advisory Team at: 📧 advisory@7qfs.com 📞 +357 22763344 🌐 www.7qgroup.com Follow our LinkedIn page for more insightful analysis of the local and global asset classes. #Eurozone #Sovereign #7QInvestmentGroup

"US Inflation Gauge Seen Bolstering Fed Patience on Rates" The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of underlying US inflation probably remained uncomfortably high in February, showing why central bankers are wary about cutting interest rates too soon. While not derailing the Fed's plans for rate cuts, this data suggests inflation is not cooling off as quickly as hoped. This contrasts with late 2023 when inflation seemed to be nearing the target level. The upcoming PCE report is also expected to show stronger consumer spending. Source: Bloomberg BistInvest Comment: High February inflation data throws cold water on the Fed's planned rate cuts. Stubborn inflation forces them to prioritize price control over stimulating growth, likely delaying rate cuts until they see a clearer downtrend. www.BistInvest.com #BistInvest #Investment #USA #Inflation #CorePCEHigh #InflationSurprise #FedCautious #RateCutDelay #StrongConsumerSpending #HealthyEconomyChallenge #BalancingAct #InflationControl #GrowthConcerns #StagflationRisk

US Inflation Dips to 2.9%: A Potential Game-Changer for Interest Rates The latest figures are in—US inflation has cooled down to 2.9% in July, a slight but significant dip from June's 3%. This unexpected decline adds fuel to the growing speculation that the Fed might consider cutting interest rates in September. Why does this matter? - Consumer Impact: Lower inflation means the cost of living might ease up a bit, giving consumers some much-needed breathing room. - Business Implications: For businesses, a potential interest rate cut could lower borrowing costs, encouraging investment and expansion. - Economic Outlook: With core CPI still above 3%, the Fed will have to balance the need for stability with growth. The path ahead remains cautious, but the signs are pointing towards a more accommodative stance. #Economy #Inflation #InterestRates

Fed's preferred inflation measure, PCE came in line with expectations. The Broader Dollar has been steady. Focus will now be on the US February jobs report and CPI print before the Fed meeting on 20th March. Though the status quo seems the most likely outcome, these data points could influence the tone of the policy. On the domestic front, FPIs have poured in a net USD 11.9bn in domestic debt in FY'24 so far. Net FPI flow into debt has been positive in all eleven months of this fiscal so far. Overall sentiment is upbeat post better than expected December quarter GDP. There is optimism around the revival of private CAPEX. We may continue to see a steady stream of FPI flows into domestic debt and equities if global risk sentiment remains stable. RBI continues to play a very active role in both spot and forwards, resulting in Rupee remaining extremely range bound. We continue to see the Rupee trade in an 82.50-83.20 range over the medium term with volatility remaining subdued. ~ CNBC-TV18 #cnbctv18 #foreignexchange #usdinr #rupeeoutlook #marketanalysis #financenews #tuesdayview #globalcurrencies #riskmanagement #hedging #ifaglobal

There are some headlines today about PCE, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, "stalling" or "holding steady" at 2.8%, Yahoo Finance in particular. If you grab the index data, zoom out, and "soften" the month-to-month "noise", you see that we continue to see an orderly downward slope of inflation data. The green line below is what is reported and talked about. The gold line is the 12-month average of the index data. It softens the month-to-month volatility and gives a better indication of the overall trend. #pce #inflation #softlanding #rates #tothfinancial

May’s PCE data provided some relief for nervous investors hoping to see inflation return to its downward trend after a first-quarter setback. The Fed often points to the three-month rate as the best indicator of present conditions, and that measure has fallen to its lowest level since December. Yet, the Fed has been vocal in stressing that it needs longer term measures to show sustained declines before it will consider cutting rates. #CommonsCapital #inflation #wealthmanagement

The spread between the Fed Fund Rate and its favourite inflation indicator Core PCE remains at its widest level since September 2007, indicating the tightest monetary policy we have seen in 17 years. Historically, Fed would want to maintain at least a 2% spread ABOVE Core PCE whenever inflation runs wild. With an effective Fed Fund Rate at 5.33% right now, this means that Fed has room to afford 2-3 rate cuts at this moment while monitoring the inflation trend. With this background, the Fed is likely to cut rates in September 2024, probably by a 25 bps rather than a 50 bps. But I doubt they will return to an easy money policy soon, instead it will be trying to loosen a relatively tight policy so that it does not end up in a recession. Timing is Everything! 时机就是一切! Cheers 👍😀 #stagflation #warcycle #timingandyou #timingiseverything #cycleanalysis #sovereigndebtcrisis #SDC #globalmonetarycrisis #GMC

Fed Inflation Gauge Shows Continued Progress – What Does It Mean for Future Interest Rates? The latest inflation data is in, and the Fed's preferred measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed slower-than-expected inflation growth for August, with prices rising just 0.1% for the month. This brings the 12-month rate to 2.2%, moving closer to the Fed's target and signaling potential for further interest rate cuts in the near future. Despite the positive inflation news, personal income and spending both came in lighter than anticipated, growing only 0.2%. Housing costs continue to apply pressure, but overall, the data suggests we're on the right path. With the Fed already reducing its rates by half a percentage point, it will be interesting to see how the coming months unfold. #Economy #Inflation #FederalReserve #Finance #InterestRates

Inflation Watch! 📈 The US PPI (MoM) (Jul) drops today, providing insights into inflation pressures. Could it signal a shift in the Fed's monetary policy or fuel further rate hikes? Stay tuned for analysis! #EconomicData #MarketWatch #Inflation #GFSMarkets #HighImpactNews

EP Wealth Advisors Managing Director of Investments, Adam N. Phillips, CFA, CAIA, CFP®, recently joined Reuters TV to share his thoughts on the market and economy ahead of a key inflation data release.  “The market is expecting the month-over-month inflation print for core PCE to be up about 1/10 of a percent. If so, that's going to be the lowest print all year on a year-over-year basis,” says Phillips. “Inflation could be at about 2.6%, so the lowest in a few years. So, this is expected to be a very Fed-friendly inflation report." Watch the full segment here: https://hubs.la/Q02DZ45X0  #EPWealthAdvisors #InterestRates #Inflation