Stonehaven’s Post

A deep dive into Stonehaven's 2024 UK General Election MRP and what it tells us about voters. 💡 This year's election was arguably the first "MRP" election with no less than 13 different major models published. At the top of the pile was Stonehaven's model which provided the closest projections. From tactical voting, to correcting biases, and survey design, Stonehaven's Head of Data Science Luke Betham explains the how, why and "what it all means" behind our MRP. Learn more via our latest insights blog here 👇 https://lnkd.in/eExT86bt

Check out my in-depth exploration of Stonehaven's leading MRP model in the 2024 UK General Election! 🌟📊 Among 13 major models, Stonehaven's projections were the closest. In our latest blog, I delve into why this election was so complicated and the strategies behind our success, from tactical voting and bias correction to innovative survey design. 🗳️🔍 Discover the insights and methodologies that set our model apart and what they reveal about voter behaviour. Explore more below 👇 #DataScience #MRP #Election2024 #VoterInsights #SurveyDesign #Stonehaven

Another update on the MRP. Luke Betham, very much the Penn and Teller of the MRP world, provides a deep dive into how the team achieved the most accurate MRP in the UK. #MRP #Election2024 #datascience #data

*High Level Committee Report on One Nation, One Election – Simultaneous Elections (Submitted on 14th March 2024)*. Please read carefully. Recommendations:  The Committee recommends amendments to the Constitution to enable Simultaneous Elections (One Nation, One Election-ONOE) in two steps:- 1. Simultaneous Elections will be held for the House of the People and the State Legislative Assemblies. For this, no ratification by the States will be required for the Constitutional Amendment.   2. Elections to the Municipalities and the Panchayats will be synchronised with the House of the People and the State Legislative Assemblies in such a way that Municipalities and Panchayats elections are held within 100 days of holding elections to the House of the People and the State Legislative Assemblies. This will require ratification by not less than one-half of the States.  For the purpose of synchronisation of elections to the House of the People and State Legislative Assemblies, the Committee recommends that the President of India may, by notification, issued on the date of the first sitting of the House of the People after a General election, bring into force the provision of this Article.  The Committee recommends introduction of Article 324A for enabling simultaneous elections in Panchayats and Municipalities with the General elections of the House of the People and the State Legislative Assemblies and amendment in Article 325. Other Articles are 325, 243K, 243ZA, 368(2) (Entry 5) of Schedule VII, Part IX, Part IX A will be amended.  A Constitution Amendment Bill will have to be introduced in the Parliament amending Article 83 (Duration of Houses of Parliament) and Article 172 Duration of State Legislatures). This Constitutional Amendment will not need ratification by the States.  Click here to read: English Report (https://lnkd.in/gmUayAUa). Source: GCtR

Introducing the October 2024 edition of “Capital Snapshot,” a monthly summary of the issues, events, and timelines driving federal policy decisions. This month, our Legislative & Public Policy team covers: 🔹The upcoming congressional schedule, including key dates during the lame duck period in November and December 🔹Notable political, electoral, and congressional developments, including new congressional nominees, members, and special elections 🔹Updates on end-of-year priorities for key policy and legislative areas, including: • FY25 Appropriations • National Defense Authorization Act • Data privacy • Artificial Intelligence • Energy and Environment • Education • Life Sciences • 2024 Farm Bill • 2025 Tax Policy Priorities 🔹The state of play and outlook for the 2024 congressional and presidential elections 🔹A look at current political, economic, and societal trends and factors that could impact the 2024 political landscape and elections Click here to read the latest issue ➡️ https://bit.ly/48934RX #PublicPolicy #Elections #Legislative

We are capturing all the action in real time at the ARCO conference with our event photography services! Don't miss a moment! 📸 #eventphotography #realtime #capturethemoment"

538's Election Forecast Holds Steady Despite Polling Swings Post-Debate 📊🗳️ In the aftermath of the recent presidential debate, 538's election forecast has shown surprising stability despite former President Donald Trump increasing his lead in national polls by approximately two percentage points since June 27, following President Joe Biden's underwhelming debate performance. 📊 As a result, Biden now trails by 2.1 points, marking the most significant disadvantage for a Democratic presidential candidate since early 2000. 🗳️ Despite these polling changes, 538's forecast has remained relatively unchanged, puzzling many observers. Biden's chances dipped slightly post-debate but have since stabilized and demonstrated a sophisticated approach to election forecasting, where short-term shifts don't sway the overall analysis too heavily. 🧐 Forecasting involves complex calculations and considers historical polling data, suggesting less volatility in recent elections but emphasizing the need for a comprehensive dataset and ensuring potential shifts in voter alignment are captured, making the forecast more robust and less reactive to immediate poll changes. 🔍 In sum, 538's model's stability reflects a deliberate methodological choice to prioritize a comprehensive and historically informed approach to over-reactive adjustments based on short-term polling fluctuations. This approach enhances the forecast's robustness and provides a more balanced perspective on potential election outcomes. 📈 Dig deeper: https://lnkd.in/etByNs6d #Election2024 #PollingData #PoliticalAnalysis #538Forecast #ElectionForecasting #USPolitics #flapol #sayfie

how Gridlines can help you in Finding an error in spreadsheet.

Really interesting article based on some fascinating research. Let's find a way of getting some great inoculations on to social media to help protect our democracy.

Presidential election year data point #2. S&P 500 Index performance: 4 year Cycle. This shows all presidents since Hoover and how well each year (1-4) the S&P 500 performed. Observations: 67 of 92 years were positive. (73%) The average total return for the 4 year tern was 46.18% When a Republican was in office - average yearly total return was 7.85% When a Denocrat was in office - average total return was 14.93% Once again, this data was compiled by First Trust Portfolios. If you get into a discussion over the Fourth of July holiday with your family or friends about past market performance under Democratic and Republican president's, now you can provide facts instead of mythology.