Supply Change Capital’s Post

Getting a Chocolate High - Understanding the Impact of Surging Cocoa Prices Brace yourselves, chocolate lovers. Recent months have seen cocoa prices skyrocket to record highs, leaving manufacturers and consumers alike in a state of uncertainty [1]. What's Causing the Cocoa Chaos?  The culprit behind this price surge is a significant shortfall in cocoa production from two major players responsible for a large chunk of the world’s cocoa supply: Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Unfavourable weather conditions, smuggling, and crop disease have significantly hampered output, with some regions projected to fall short of their expected cocoa production by almost half [2]. From Speculation to Scramble: The Market Shifts  While speculators once played a leading role in price fluctuations, the current trend reveals a shift in power. Hedge funds are exiting their positions, and manufacturers are scrambling to secure dwindling supplies, abandoning traditional hedging strategies in favour of immediate acquisition [3]. This increased activity by major players highlights a growing concern about long-term supply security.  The Potential Impact on Your Candy Bar  The consequences of these price hikes could be bittersweet for the chocolate industry. Manufacturers face the challenge of securing cocoa at a reasonable cost, potentially leading to product shortages or increased production expenses. Consumers, on the other hand, might have to pay more for their favourite chocolate treats or even face difficulties finding them altogether. Navigating the Chocolate High: A Collaborative Approach  In navigating this chocolate high, it's essential for industry stakeholders to stay informed about market developments and adapt their strategies accordingly. Proactive measures such as diversifying sourcing channels, exploring alternative ingredients, and implementing efficient supply chain management practices can help mitigate the impact of fluctuating cocoa prices. However, true resilience lies in collaboration and transparency across the entire supply chain. By working together to address challenges like climate change, agricultural pests, and ethical sourcing practices, we can build a more sustainable cocoa industry that benefits everyone involved – from producers to manufacturers and ultimately, the consumers.  Looking Ahead: A Bittersweet Conclusion The future of chocolate prices remains uncertain. While it's impossible to predict exactly how much our beloved chocolate indulgences will cost, it's a safe bet that the cocoa crisis will be felt by both producers and consumers.  [1] https://lnkd.in/ghsQUvqY  [2] https://lnkd.in/gN8GnieR  [3] https://lnkd.in/gwY7GTfH  Follow @Kepler Search for #jobs and news in #agribusiness, #commodities, #trading and more.

🔍 Unwrapping the Challenge: Navigating the Soaring Cocoa Prices 🍫 #cocoacrisis #sustainablesourcing #marketdynamics As cocoa prices climb, understanding the multifaceted challenges—from climate impact to regulatory pressures—becomes crucial for stakeholders in the chocolate industry. This surge underlines the urgent need for sustainable cultivation and robust supply chain strategies to ensure the stability and future of our beloved cocoa. #climatechange #supplychainresilience 📖 Full read here: https://lnkd.in/di5frDx5

The 2024/2025 Cocoa Season: What to Expect and Why Traceability Matters More Than Ever As we approach the new cocoa season, the industry is poised for what could be a pivotal year. After the challenges of 2023/2024—marked by weather extremes, aging trees, and widespread disease—there’s cautious optimism for improved yields. In our latest blog, we dive into: • 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗗𝘆𝗻𝗮𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀: How better weather and disease control could shape the 2024/2025 season, and why cocoa prices are unlikely to fall. • 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗥𝗼𝗹𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆: Why having a robust traceability system is crucial to meet increasing regulatory demands and protect supply chains. • 𝗙𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲’𝘀 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: How we’re supporting industry leaders like Cargill and GCB Cocoa during this intense period, ensuring their operations are compliant, resilient, and ready for the challenges ahead. Whether you’re a producer, trader, or sustainability manager, understanding these dynamics is key to navigating the season. 👉 Read the full blog: https://lnkd.in/dnBAEdDs #Cocoa #Sustainability #Traceability #EUDR #Farmforce #AgTech #SupplyChain

Very good article from Emily Stone about the current #cocoa market context. For guidance, a GBP 300 / now 5% / 80% vol move (daily regular now) would normally represent a yearly market range. “There is indeed a “perfect storm” of variables impacting cacao production, from not-so-temporary climate shocks, to systemic devastating disease, to aging & migrating producers, to limited planting of new trees, to new regulations limiting how land can be converted into new cacao farms, and so on. As I argued in the last post, the externalities and true costs of modern cacao production which have been ignored for decades are coming home to roost. I think we may be looking at a hard reset for cocoa.” Even though I had been #trading cocoa and traveling in cocoa producing countries for years, only after reading "Sapiens, a brief history of humankind" I understood why nothing had and nothing would change in the countries I visited. That requires a much deeper reset, which can't only be established by market forces. It requires a cultural overhaul, rooting out corruption and mismanagement, enabled by education. Good to see you Benjamin Figarede #markets

I'm excited to share the first part of my new mini-series on the cocoa market: "7 Essential Cocoa Insights I Wish I Knew: Part 1 of the Cocoa Market Series" 🌱🍫 Drawing from my experience at Cargill, this article dives deep into the fundamentals of the cocoa industry, uncovering the key insights and market dynamics that every cocoa enthusiast and professional should know. 🔍 Discover: The intricacies of global cocoa production Sustainability aspects of cocoa Factors influencing market prices And much more! Whether you're in the industry, a chocolate lover, or just curious about what makes cocoa so special, this series is for you. 📖 Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/gv6uxmQc Stay tuned for more insights and stories in the upcoming parts of the series! #Cocoa #CocoaMarket #ChocolateIndustry #Cargill #SupplyChain #MarketInsights #FoodIndustry #Sustainability

A recent report by SBM Intelligence highlights the spike in global cocoa prices, posing significant challenges for producers and consumers. Explore our comprehensive analysis on how this affects the chocolate industry and potential strategies for sustainability. Read more ➡ https://lnkd.in/dpwAihZJ

🍫🌍 Exciting Developments in the Cocoa Market! 📈🌱 The global cocoa industry is experiencing unprecedented shifts, and businesses must stay informed. A recent article on The Economic Times sheds light on why prices for chocolate and cocoa have skyrocketed. Check out the insightful analysis here: https://rb.gy/001pkl Key takeaways: 🏭 Supply Chain Disruptions: The article delves into how supply chain disruptions have played a significant role in driving up prices. Understanding these disruptions is vital for businesses to navigate the current market landscape. ☀ Impact of Climate Change: Climate change is posing challenges to cocoa production, leading to supply shortages and price volatility. Insights into how businesses can adapt to these changes are crucial for long-term sustainability. 🌍 Global Demand Trends: With changing consumer preferences and increasing demand for chocolate products worldwide, businesses need to stay agile and responsive to market trends to capitalize on growth opportunities. Stay ahead of the curve and gain valuable insights into the cocoa market dynamics by reading the full article. Let's navigate these changes together and seize new opportunities for growth and innovation! #CocoaMarket #ChocolateIndustry #GlobalTrade #SupplyChain #ClimateChange #BusinessInsights #EconomicTrends

***New Blog Post: The Bitter Reality: Understanding the Soaring Cocoa Prices*** With cocoa prices reaching unprecedented levels and supply chains facing increasing disruptions from factors like adverse weather conditions and regulatory changes, companies must recognize the imperative of investing in sustainable practices to safeguard their supply chains and ensure long-term viability. This surge in cocoa prices serves as a stark reminder of the vulnerability inherent in global supply chains, particularly those reliant on agricultural commodities subject to environmental and market fluctuations. As such, companies need to proactively address these challenges by diversifying sourcing channels, implementing robust risk management strategies, and embracing technology-driven solutions for enhanced visibility and traceability across their supply networks. Read more here: https://bit.ly/3I6kfHZ #cocoa #sustainability #agriculture #foodsupplychain

In this week's #agribusiness top stories: Cocoa prices have surged due to supply shortages and structural challenges in West Africa, impacting global markets. This and more in your weekly roundup! #MexicoBusinessNews #MexicoBusiness #WeeklyRoundups