Associate Advisor for Geopolitical Risk at Centre for Risk Studies, University of Cambridge
A great read but a glossed over mechanism in geopolitical risk studies is the ripple effect. ———————————— TLDR: BRI’s flagship failure due to Pakistan’s governance instability = Intensification of US-China conflict over Taiwan ———————————— In some ways, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was a way for China to circumvent the two island chains that geographically and economically (and many argue militarily) contain it. Most of China’s manufactured exports and oil-imports are sensitive to blockades in the two island chains. It is a security issue for Beijing. BRI’s flagship failure in the form of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and the lack of alternative routes through the Central Asian Stans on its western border, means Beijing might refocus on weakening the American-allied island chains on its eastern coast. If the US is still following a Cold-War era domino theory, it might see Taiwan as the first domino that might take the two-island chains down with it- hence worth defending at immense cost, just like Vietnam and South Korea. Over here we see a ripple effect, Pakistan’s domestic governance instability, and the ensuing failure of CPEC, leads to a lack of alternatives for breaking out for China, and an accelerated re-focus on the two island chains- arguably one that might have happened perhaps a decade late were China successful in Pakistan and less irritated by its eastern containment.
‘For decades, the Taiwan issue was commonly presented as being chiefly about history and reputation. Recently, however, the intensification of great-power rivalry has transferred attention towards geography.’ Read the new Adelphi book by Bill Emmott: https://lnkd.in/eHqifBaH
