Octavian Adrian Tanase’s Post

JPM AM | 2024 Guide to Retirement #retirement #savings #spending #investing

Michael Hartnett, BofA | Gold Just Surpassed The Euro As The World's 2nd Largest Reserve Asset - lower bond yields correctly spot weaker macro - weaker macro: not only did the BLS delete nearly a million jobs (818k this week + 107k past 12 months), but “white collar” professional payrolls are nearly flat YoY...broad retail sales are flat YTD in real terms...and 11% of credit cards are delinquent 90+ days, as past surges showed an economy which was already in recession - being long the 30-year US Treasury, is still the best hedge against the rising risk of a hard landing in Q4 - if the Fed is cutting rates because it expects a recession... it usually will get it, and the accompanying market crash as well. Rate cuts are not a likely spark for equity buying from the $6.2tn MMF & $2.5tn PE cash. - 5 of 6 Powell Jackson Hole speeches saw the S&P 500 drop 7.5% on average in the next 3 months. "Who’s left to buy?" That's because the bank's private client allocation to stocks is already at a near record-high 62%, while S&P 500 cash balances have dropped to just 8.8% of assets which is often a bearish tip-off, as there is almost no more "dry powder" left to fund stock buybacks. - paraphrasing TS Eliot, "liquidity takers “cannot bear very much reality” while the Fed is loath to impose it."It's so bad that in what is already the 3rd best year for rate cuts Wall St needs still much more liquidity: among other thing, $1.5tn of Commercial Real Estate loans are rolling over in ’24-’25...the US real prime rate at 20yr highs; while the US govt interest is set to rise to $1.2tn in 2025 even if the Fed cuts rates to 3.5%. Meanwhile, $313 trillion of world debt needs service, a number that will keep growing exponentially until it all comes crashing down. - There is one other key reason why to expect a hard landing: the recent drop in global manufacturing PMIs, the stubbornly weak China financial conditions, and the lagged impact of record US yield curve inversion... put all these together, and BofA EPS Growth Model of global profit expectations (i.e. 12-month forward EPS) says EPS forecast to decelerate from 11% YoY in Jul'24 to 5% by Dec'24, where July was the inflection point. #thebigpicture #macro #fed #monetarypolicy #yields #fiscalpolicy #unemployment #inflation #recession #profits #liquidity #manufacturing #china #emergingmarkets #commodities #gold (source: ZH)

Howard Marks, Oaktree | Mr. Market Miscalculates In his latest memo, Howard Marks discusses the reasons for the recent market volatility using one of finance’s classic metaphors: Mr. Market, the figure Benjamin Graham created in 1949 to explain the erratic nature of financial markets. Howard pulls together some of his best writing on investor psychology from the past three decades, adds some of his favorite investing cartoons, and offers a few new observations. He suggests that Mr. Market’s lessons about the behavior of markets are as relevant today as they were 75 years ago. https://lnkd.in/dPGUAaxt

GS | S&P 500 sectors relative valuation & cross asset risk adjusted returns #spx #equities #valuation #crossasset #returns

EssilorLuxottica: From Eyecare To Eyewear To Smart Glasses https://lnkd.in/dSqrEbNH

BofA | Sectors primed for a low interest rate environment are under-owned relative to history #equities #interestrates

DB | The European securitisation market has been stagnating since the financial crisis The crisis ended a boom phase, with true-sale securitisation issuance peaking at EUR 711 bn in 2008. Afterwards, issuance fell drastically and has since remained stable at around EUR 200 bn per year or EUR 100 bn if marketplaced issuance alone is considered. This is much lower than in the US, where average annual issuance was about EUR 2 tr in the period 2013-23. Synthetic securitisation, however, where the underlying assets remain on the bank’s balance sheet, has been growing in recent years, with issuance in the euro area reaching EUR 139 bn in 2023. Link: https://lnkd.in/d6uj8eM2 #securitisation #eu #us

GS | S&P 500 sectors relative valuation #spx #equities #valuation

TS Lombard | Commodities Slowing growth indicators are weighing on cyclical Commodities prices. Precious Metals, too, sold off during the recent volatility spike. Unless cyclical indicators improve, headwinds are likely to persist. #commodities