Terrain’s Post

An Economist who is a Farmer himself !!! Rural Demand and Recovery? What's driving labour markets? Importance of Road and Power infrastructure in growth. A superb in-depth discussion with a Farmer & Economist Gautam Singh https://lnkd.in/gx3GXpD2

There was a substantial decline in number of farms over the last decade. It's popular to talk about the "shrinking middle" but this chart shows the largest decline in the number of very small farms from 2017-2022. I wonder if the the story might be different if viewed in terms of value of production. I also wonder if the decline in very small farms stems from the disruption of the COVID pandemic or something else is going on.

Heartbreaking to see such a loss in farms in the lower and middle economic classes. It is important to consider the impacts of large farming operations that only provide markets for the highest class and size of farms. Total farms overall are seeing a decrease in number and if this trend continues, what impact will our dependence on large farms have on secure food systems?

New variables like the growth of data centers in rural America are contributing to the headwinds for the rural economy in the U.S. heading into 2025. Despite challenges seen ahead in the crop markets and continued rising costs for farmers, #farmland should remain a relatively stable piece of the agricultural pie in the new year. See more on what the team from one of the nation's largest ag lenders sees ahead. https://lnkd.in/g_rd9ZGD

Check out Agricultural Economic Insights' chart of the week about farmland and debt powered by Acres data. Watch now: https://hubs.la/Q02Z1f180

  The latest 2024 farm sector income forecast, which the USDA Economic Research Service released on Sept. 5 and presented in a webinar by Carrie (Case) Litkowski, suggests net farm income will weaken this year and total $140 billion. The 4.4% nominal decline estimated between 2023 and 2024 isn't as drastic as the drop from 2022-23. The 2024 estimate positions net farm income above the 20-year average of $121.5 billion, and it improved since the February forecast, which estimated 2024 net farm income at $116.1 billion. The following notes help to explain the forecast and its implications: 1️⃣ Over time, farm income forecasts can shift due to accessing data that more closely reflect actual conditions rather than expectations. Compared with the February forecast, the blunted net farm income decline noted in the September forecast reflects more current data. Higher livestock receipts were the main factor that changed since February and benefited the September forecast. This was largely driven by livestock prices increasing substantially; for example, 2024 steer prices in the August WASDE relative to the January WASDE increased nearly 7%. 2️⃣ Strong livestock receipts and modestly declining production expenses keep projected net farm income from falling further. Crop receipts put downward pressure on estimated net farm income. 3️⃣ Livestock and crop farms face starkly different conditions. Farm businesses — those where farming is the primary occupation and gross cash farm income totals at least $350,000 — specializing in livestock enterprises all have estimated nominal net cash farm income growth in 2024 — for example, cattle and calves up nearly 10% and dairy up 47%. This is consistent with Kansas Farm Management Association observations that 2023 farm income was stronger for farms with livestock — mostly cattle. Farm businesses specializing in wheat are estimated to experience a year over year decline in their nominal net cash farm income in 2024 by nearly 50%, compared with 40% and 38% declines for farms specializing in soybeans and corn, respectively. The struggles for wheat mirror conditions published in updated 2024 Kansas crop budgets by Gregg Ibendahl and Daniel O'Brien, who project negative winter wheat returns in the 2025 crop year: https://lnkd.in/gjiUk6EG. 4️⃣ Liquidity is tightening but not at unprecedented levels. Due to higher interest rates and lower production values, ERS projects the debt service ratio to rise this year — meaning farms will use a greater share of production to pay for debt. At roughly 0.25, the ratio is better than levels observed from 2016-20 and 2009-10. If profitability retreats more, then debt service is a metric to monitor. National projections — like the ERS forecast — offer a composite view of U.S. farm finances. In about a month, the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF) will release state farm income outlooks. Watch for them!

In case you missed my segment discussing the outcome of the latest 150 basis points hike of #MPR by the monetary policy committee, here is a clip. In the end, #households and #MSMEs will feel the pinch the most. To be sure, we cannot hike our way out of the inflationary problems we find ourselves in. The fiscal authorities have a crucial role to play by ensuring countercyclical measures are brought to bear by investing in irrigation for year round farming and resolving the insecurity issues in the country especially in the hinterlands. Other issues on exchange rate and economic growth were discussed. #DBN #Knowledgesharing #Impact https://lnkd.in/dmYQdnVB

Join our discussion with Agricultural Economic Insights's David Widmar as we recap the Federal Reserve Open Market (FOMC)'s latest interest rate decision, their updated long-run expectations, and other interest rate market activity. To register 👉 https://bit.ly/3T9xz41.

The fine line. 🖊 This line can dictate the difference between a good year and a bad year. While cattle prices have been strong, that fine line remains. Input costs, weather, the economy -- could turn a good year into a tough one. Where does that tipping point lie for your operation? What safeguards do you have in place if cattle prices ease while production costs remain high? Reach out to us. Let’s explore ways we can put tomorrow’s projected prices to work for your operation today. https://lnkd.in/gpv863B 866-433-4350

Have land values been on your mind? How about the ag economy? Learn the latest agricultural news and updates in an upcoming deep dive when you join the 2024 Virtual Midwest Ag Conference on Thursday, November 14! https://lnkd.in/dpZKCjay