NERC took an important step in updating and improving resource adequacy models to better inform decision making and improve reliability and resource adequacy outcomes.
The importance of common cause failures, particularly those due to weather, is well known in the academic literature and is taught in introductory reliability courses to undergraduates. The limitations of the LOLP/LOLE indices have also been well established for decades.
Billington, R., and R. N. Allan. "Reliability evaluation of power systems." (1984).
Billinton, Roy, and Ronald Norman Allan. Reliability evaluation of engineering systems. Vol. 792. New York: Plenum press, 1992.
Felder, Frank A. "“An Island of Technicality in a Sea of Discretion”: A Critique of Existing Electric Power Systems Reliability Analysis and Policy." The Electricity Journal 14.3 (2001): 21-31.
Felder, Frank A. "Incorporating Resource Dynamics to Determine Generation Adequacy Levels in Restructured Bulk Power Systems." KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering 4.2 (2004): 100-105.
Murphy, Sinnott, Fallaw Sowell, and Jay Apt. "A time-dependent model of generator failures and recoveries captures correlated events and quantifies temperature dependence." Applied energy 253 (2019): 113513.
Enhancing resource adequacy models along multiple dimensions to incorporate more causes of power outages and blackouts, economic and social costs, uncertainty, economic incentives, and account for resiliency is doable, practical and useful.
Felder, Frank A., and Marie Petitet. "Extending the reliability framework for electric power systems to include resiliency and adaptability." The Electricity Journal 35.8 (2022): 107186.
Petitet, Marie, Burcin Unel, and Frank A. Felder. "Making Electricity Capacity Markets Resilient to Extreme Weather Events." Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy 12.2 (2023).
Felder, Frank A. and Petitet, Marie, An Emerging Framework for the Probabilistic Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Reliability, Resiliency, and Adaptability of Electric Power Systems (June 15, 2024). Available at SSRN: https://lnkd.in/dBvezhuN or https://lnkd.in/dXQpbd5B
A report released last week by NERC and the National Academy of Engineering said the industry’s traditional resource adequacy models do not adequately account for the essential role that electricity plays.
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Writer: Holden Mann
IT Analyst @Stats And Research | IT Infrastructure, Information Systems, CRM
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