Texas Oil & Gas Association’s Post

📊 TXOGA Chartbook Update - Week of September 9, 2024 🔹U.S. economic indicators were mixed. The unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2% in August, but non-farm payroll growth remained weak and was revised downward for July. Business conditions, as measured by the ADS Index from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, improved and stayed aligned with GDP growth. Yields on high-yield corporate bonds held steady at 13.2%, while 30-day Fed Funds futures remained unchanged at 5.0%. This suggests that financial market expectations for a 0.25% Fed Funds rate cut this month remain on track. 🔹Oil market fundamentals tightened further, yet prices continued to fall. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped by nearly $6 per barrel week-over-week (w/w) to under $68 per barrel as of September 6, despite OPEC+ delaying supply increases by at least two months. Notably, U.S. crude oil inventories fell by 7.6 million barrels w/w as of August 30, placing this change in the top 5% of all weekly inventory shifts on record since 1982, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). U.S. crude oil inventories have cumulatively dropped by 42.4 million barrels (9.2%) over the past 11 weeks, reaching the bottom of the 5-year range. As highlighted in the Chart of the Week, mean reversion analysis has provided insights into oil and natural gas prices, affirming the reversion of oil prices while also noting recent increases in natural gas futures prices. 🔹U.S. natural gas prices rose as storage levels fell further within the 5-year range. U.S. natural gas exports and domestic consumption stayed historically strong, leading to a 7.1% w/w increase in prices to $2.28 per million Btu (mmBtu) as of September 6. Near-term futures prices fell below their historical mean, while futures contracts for December 2024 delivery are 37% higher at $3.11 per mmBtu. For detailed insights and analysis, please visit the TXOGA Chartbook at: https://lnkd.in/g8tSBmUm #TexasOilAndGas #EconomicOutlook #OilMarket #NaturalGas #EnergyTrends #MarketInsights #Business #Economics #Productivity #QuantitativeAnalysis #Strategy #Innovation #Inflation #Prices #Markets #Data