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UNDERSTANDING THE FLUCTUATING MARKETS What Is Monetary Policy? It's what the Fed does to accomplish two key goals mandated by the U.S. Congress: promoting maximum employment—which is the highest level of employment or lowest level of unemployment that the economy can sustain while maintaining a stable inflation rate promoting stable prices—for the goods and services we all purchase https://lnkd.in/g6n9zMDV

📈 How Does the Stock Market Perform in the First 6 Months After a Presidential Election? Elections bring uncertainty, and many investors wonder how the stock market will react in the months that follow. While the market can be unpredictable, history gives us some clues on what to expect in the first half of a new presidency. 💡 Historical Data: Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of approximately 6.5% in the six months after a presidential election, regardless of which party wins. The market tends to perform better when the election results are clear and when there is no significant policy shift that causes disruption. 📅 Recent Examples: In 2021, following the 2020 election, the S&P 500 rose nearly 14% in the first six months, driven by optimism surrounding economic recovery and stimulus measures. After the 2016 election, the market gained about 8.6% in the first half of 2017, as investors responded positively to potential tax reforms and deregulation. 📉 What Drives Performance? Economic Conditions: The state of the economy during the transition of power often has a greater influence than the election itself. Factors like inflation, interest rates, and fiscal policy can all impact market behavior. Policy Expectations: New administrations often come with changes in regulations, taxes, and government spending, which can either boost or weigh down market sentiment. 📈 What This Means for Investors: While election results can create short-term volatility, long-term trends are often more dependent on economic fundamentals. The key is to avoid making emotional decisions based on politics and to stay focused on a diversified, long-term investment strategy. #StockMarket #ElectionTrends #FinancialPlanning #MarketUpdate

Two Big Policy Crosscurrents: The Fed and the Election   Of course, last week’s headliner was Jerome Powell and the Fed cutting rates by a half percent on Wednesday. For markets, what matters most is how much Powell and Co. cut for the entire cycle and how lower rates affect the economy. Now that the 0.25% vs. 0.50% debate has been settled, policy discussions can shift toward the upcoming presidential election. Stocks tend to be more volatile during the months approaching elections, one of the reasons for our continued more cautious, neutral, rather than positive, stance on equities. From a policy perspective, it’s interesting to look at the stock market as an election predictor. Strong gains for stocks since early August signal an incumbent victory, though this predictor was wrong in 2020. This cycle remains very unpredictable as the incumbent candidate isn’t running. by JEFFREY BUCHBINDER, CFA | LPL CHIEF EQUITY STRATEGIST

In a world not so distant, the grand spectacle of the presidential election is fast approaching. In this month's edition of our newsletter, we explore the impact of past elections on the realm of markets and unveil the sectors that will likely flourish under either a Joe Biden or Donald Trump presidency. But first, let us delve into the current state of the economy, a landscape filled with uncertainty and intrigue. The first half of 2024 has been marked by significant gains in the stock market. In June, the S&P 500 rose 3.8%, bringing an end to the first half of the year with a surge of 14.5% and an impressive 31 closing records. Now, investors find themselves at a crossroads, pondering whether this rally will continue and if the election and its outcome will chart the course for the future of the economy. Click the link to read the full article. Climates... #financialleadership #wealthmanagement #TheSchmittGroup #RaymondJames

A Fox News poll shows Trump ahead of Kamala Harris 50% to 48% in the race for the US presidency. Prediction markets have been even clearer for the Republican candidate. This week, Trump defended his plans to overhaul the US economy through dramatic tariff increases and more direct consultation with the Fed, arguing his policies would result in substantial growth despite (criticism) his agenda would fuel inflation (and hence the USD!!) and spike the national debt. Again, focus is on a few key seats and states. BBC News reports polls are very tight in the seven battleground states and neither candidate has a decisive lead in any of them. From around 101 on January 20 2017, the DXY USD Index fell to around 90.50 by the end of Trump's term on January 20 2021, a fall of over -10% in office. During Biden's term, DXY has travelled from circa 90.5 to around 103.5 and a +14%-plus gain. Of course, relatively positive growth and yield advantages/differentials have prompted the big win for the USD during the period, with latest comeback gains inspired by the big beats in Friday's payrolls data. Read the full October election update and much more by requesting your free trial of IGM here: https://lnkd.in/empzVQDb #USelection #Trump #FX #Forecasts #USD #EUR #GBP #JPY #CHF #Fed #BOE #ECB

In a world not so distant, the grand spectacle of the presidential election is fast approaching. In this month's edition of our newsletter, we explore the impact of past elections on the realm of markets and unveil the sectors that will likely flourish under either a Joe Biden or Donald Trump presidency. But first, let us delve into the current state of the economy, a landscape filled with uncertainty and intrigue. The first half of 2024 has been marked by significant gains in the stock market. In June, the S&P 500 rose 3.8%, bringing an end to the first half of the year with a surge of 14.5% and an impressive 31 closing records. Now, investors find themselves at a crossroads, pondering whether this rally will continue and if the election and its outcome will chart the course for the future of the economy. Click below to read the full article. Climates... #financialleadership #wealthmanagement #TheSchmittGroup #RaymondJames

In a world not so distant, the grand spectacle of the presidential election is fast approaching. In this month's edition of our newsletter, we explore the impact of past elections on the realm of markets and unveil the sectors that will likely flourish under either a Joe Biden or Donald Trump presidency. But first, let us delve into the current state of the economy, a landscape filled with uncertainty and intrigue. The first half of 2024 has been marked by significant gains in the stock market. In June, the S&P 500 rose 3.8%, bringing an end to the first half of the year with a surge of 14.5% and an impressive 31 closing records. Now, investors find themselves at a crossroads, pondering whether this rally will continue and if the election and its outcome will chart the course for the future of the economy. Click below to read the full article. Climates... #financialleadership #wealthmanagement #TheSchmittGroup #RaymondJames

Recent discussions about potential aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have sparked debate. While these cuts might offer short-term market boosts, they could also signal deeper economic issues and contribute to inflationary pressures. It's important for investors to stay informed and focus on long-term strategies rather than rooting for quick fixes. For a deeper dive into the potential impacts and what they could mean for your investments, check out the full article by Anthony Saglimbene - Chief Market Strategist for Ameriprise Financial below: 🔗https://lnkd.in/gNk4zbzk #InvestingWisely #FinancialPlanning #MarketInsights #LongTermStrategy #Ameriprise

Pre-market index futures are trending higher as markets digest Biden’s decision to exit the race, a move that most assumed would occur at some point, and the political conversation is boiling down to three questions: 1) will polls in the coming days and weeks show Harris performing significantly better than Biden vs. Trump? “Significantly” is subjective, but it’s likely she sees a fairly healthy bump vs. where Biden was recently performing, even though Trump will remain the frontrunner; 2) does Harris scramble expectations for control of the House and Senate? Even before the debate, Republicans had an advantage in the Senate and will likely still end up controlling Congress in Jan, although with smaller majorities than before; and 3) will the “Trump Trade” see a significant unwind? It's still early in the political calendar--expect twists and turns until November 5th. And, don't forget the next two weeks are the heart of Q2 earnings season. Best to remain very alert and very, very nimble. #Investing #Markets #Economics