The New York Times’ Post

The latest inflation data underscores the challenges both consumers and businesses are dealing with in today’s economy. For sales professionals, this means staying attuned to customer priorities, especially in essential categories like food and fuel. A good reminder of the importance of being adaptable and finding ways to deliver real value during uncertain times. #ConsumerTrends #MarketTrends #SalesStrategy #CustomerFocus

US consumer prices increase as expected in July U.S. consumer prices rebounded as expected in July, but the trend remained consistent with subsiding inflation and did not change expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month. https://lnkd.in/egrAxbPu

The Consumer Prices Index rose 0.2% in July after edging down by 0.1% in June. This increase was consistent with expectations. More importantly, consumer prices have risen 2.9% over the past 12 months, down from 3.0% in June and the slowest year-over-year pace since March 2021.  At the same time, core consumer prices (which exclude food and energy) also increased by 0.2% in July, following the gain of 0.1% in June. Core inflation rose 3.2% year-over-year in July, down from 3.3%in June and the slowest pace since April 2021. Overall, these data show a U.S. economy that is making progress on consumer inflation, with continued moderation, albeit perhaps not as fast as desired. For its part, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to reduce the federal funds rate at its September 17–18 meeting, with at least one more cut by the end of the year. (There are two more FOMC meetings in 2024, one on November 6 – 7 and another on December 17–18, although the first of those takes place the same week as the U.S. election.) As such, the Federal Reserve should start the process of normalizing interest rates in its pursuit of a “soft landing” in the economy. At the same time, rates remain elevated to ensure that inflationary pressures remain under control, even with likely easing. For the full National Restaurant Association post, see https://lnkd.in/eYPJcQw5.

Inflation Update: Consumer prices rose by 2.9% over the past year, marking continued progress in easing the historic surge from 2022. Shelter and transportation services were the biggest contributors to the rise, with shelter prices alone accounting for nearly 90% of the monthly increase. The Fed’s 2% inflation target is still on the horizon, but we’re moving in the right direction.What does this mean for us? While inflation is cooling, many of us are still feeling the effects of higher prices. We’re seeing more people trade down to store brands and fast food as wallets tighten. Could this mean a rate cut in September? Time will tell.

Maybe some more summer softness in the markets, but in September? Are you staying positive like me? Ignore the negative news - especially from unreliable and biased sources. In May, U.S. wholesale prices dropped for the second time in three months, partly because of lower gas prices. A key measure of wholesale prices, excluding food and energy, remained unchanged for the first time in a year. The Federal Reserve sees this measure as a better indicator of future inflation. This decline comes after a recent report showed no rise in consumer prices for the first time in almost two years. These signs of easing inflation might lead the Fed to lower interest rates as soon as September.

Inflation numbers for April have been released with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7% for the month, down from the 2.9% gain in March. While gasoline prices rose at a faster pace in April (+6.1%), the remainder of the Index slowed to 2.5% compared to the 2.8% in March. The positive news for consumers was food prices which grew at a much slower pace of 1.4%, continuing the ongoing trend of greater deceleration in grocery prices.   #seaglasswealth #moneymonday #CPI #intheknow https://lnkd.in/gw2-b4c4

Consumer prices have risen 16-22% since 2020M01

Progress on inflation has hit a bit of a roadblock. Consumer price growth heated up in November, led by stubborn costs for shelter and accelerating supermarket prices. Even though the rate of inflation remains well below those nightmarish levels from two years ago, inflation is cumulative. Each month, the typical household is spending $1,100+ more than in early 2021 to buy the same stuff. All because of higher prices. More with Sara Sidner on CNN and read the full story from Alicia Wallace https://lnkd.in/e7wc5ccx

Inflation numbers for April have been released with the Consumer Price Index rising 2.7% for the month, down from the 2.9% gain in March. While gasoline prices rose at a faster pace in April (+6.1%), the remainder of the Index slowed to 2.5% compared to the 2.8% in March. The positive news for consumers was food prices which grew at a much slower pace of 1.4%, continuing the ongoing trend of greater deceleration in grocery prices.   #seaglasswealth #moneymonday #CPI #intheknow https://lnkd.in/g7VSzRTA

*April retail inflation at 4.8% (lower than March’s 4.9%) dodges the pressure from food, traces the softening in fuel and core inflation* Food inflation edged up in April to 8.7% from 8.5% in March, driven by costlier cereals and meat, while vegetables, which have been sticky at elevated levels, softened a touch. Despite the uptick in food, non-food components helped curtail headline inflation. Fuel inflation fell 4.2%, compared with 3.4% fall in March, whereas core inflation softened further to 3.2% from 3.3%. This is the lowest ever recorded for core. The mild easing of the headline number in April is encouraging, but acceleration of this downtrend is what matters, especially since recent swings have been worrying. Food inflation, which has a 39.1% weight in the CPI gauge, has remained well above 8% for six months now. Pressure on food prices continues, including due to the ongoing heatwaves. Our base case is that the upcoming monsoon rains can offer respite, assuming they are well distributed in terms of time and geography. Fuel and light, with a 6.8% weight in the CPI gauge, has been reducing the pressure on the headline for eight months led by retail fuel price relaxations by the government. But if crude oil prices rise substantially and stay elevated in wake of geopolitical stress, the gains to inflation could be reversed. Meanwhile, core inflation with a weight of 47.3% has been low for most of this period but the expected rise in commodity prices together with a low base effect will put upward pressure on core inflation in the current fiscal. Net-net for fiscal 2025, we expect CPI inflation to broadly ease this fiscal to 4.5% from 5.4% last fiscal. CRISIL Limited