The World Bank’s Post

New World Development Report: Growth in middle-income countries is slower than in low- or high-income countries. To avoid slowdown middle-income countries will have to engineer two successive transitions to develop economic structures that can eventually sustain high-income levels. 1. Investment and infusion strategy in which a country brings technologies from abroad and diffuses them domestically—a process broadly applicable to lower-middle-income countries. 2. paying more attention to innovation - a process more applicable to upper-middle-income countries.

Upper-middle-income countries need to accelerate the shift to innovation, by pushing the global frontiers of technology. This requires reconfiguring economic structures governing enterprises, labor, and energy use—in ways that enable greater economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability. More than 100 countries—including China, India, Brazil, and South Africa—face serious obstacles that could hinder their efforts to become high-income countries in the next few decades, according to a new World Bank study that provides the first comprehensive roadmap to enable developing countries to escape the “middle-income trap.”

🌍 Dive into global markets post-weak June start with Jameel Ahmad, Chief Analyst of GTC Group, on FRANCE 24. Discover the impact of India's election results and the crucial economic data investors are eyeing today. Stay informed! #GlobalMarkets #IndiaElection #EconomicData Video Credits: France 24

China 50 Breakout: Next Steps China 50 shows a bullish flag pattern after strong stimulus support. The breakout above 13,150 could offer a target of 13950. Positive sentiment is driving this market, but watch out for U.S. data later today that could change the picture. #China50 #forextrading #TechnicalAnalysis #forex #fundamentalanalysis

Solid 10 minute documentary by Bloomberg on the rise and stall of the Chinese economy. It's always painful to watch the same mistakes being made over and over again. Many of the largest and most successful companies in the world were in deep denial on the risks in China, and ignored warnings from me and many others. The lure of the prize was just too large. Very similar situation today with LLM chatbots. There are fundamentals within the footings underpinning pillars that technology and economics are built on. If those fundamental structures are inherently flawed (if the rebar is faulty or wrong concrete mix for use), which is the case in China and LLM bots, systemic risks will be realized -- the only question is timing.

Really interesting article from Jenny Gordon about what the Lowy Institute's most recent poll tells us about our changing attitudes towards China, as well as the split in our attitudes. It's still roughly 50-50 between seeing China as a threat or opportunity, but trending increasingly towards threat. Why is that? A big part of it the answer is the geopolitical context -- increasing competition and mistrust as non-status quo actors start to get more involved in the system they didn't create. In response, the status quo powers are doing everything they can to prevent shifts in power. Ironically this is resulting in actually undermining some of the core tenets of the system they are apparently trying to protect -- like free and open trade. And for Australia, our understanding of our national security and national interest seems to focus first and foremost on concerns about China -- sidelining other issues like the climate crisis to second place at best. Jenny argues that it would be "useful to ask why China has become the favourite “look over there” distraction, and how much it deserves blame". Because if we in Australia are not getting this right, we're sure throwing ourselves down a road that has very high costs with it. Jenny notes that "the Lowy Institute Poll last year showed broad public support for friendshoring. But the justification from government is to shift away from China so that it cannot exploit its role in the supply chain as an economic weapon (described as “derisking”). Just how valid this justification is, and the extent to which economic integration can be untangled to actually derisk, needs to be questioned". #geopolitics #friendshoring #derisking #Lowypoll #climatecrisis #trade #decarbonisation

My latest on #China

Last week, next week A summary of what happened on East Asia Econ last week, and what to look for in the next seven days. Click below to read more, or get in touch if you are interested in subscribing. #JapanEconomy #ChinaEconomy #KoreaEconomy #TaiwanEconomy

China's policymakers have announced a significant package of easing measures designed to lift #China from a state of entrenched economic weakness. Yet, the #sustainability of the thus far positive market response will ultimately depend on the size and implementation of the various measures. Read more in our latest market response. https://lnkd.in/enNTQm7U

The summer break is beginning, but there is no real lull for #China analysis. The Third Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China just ended in Beijing. We are sharing initial assessments by our experts: Katja Drinhausen, Head of the Politics and Society Program at MERICS: “The initial announcement is heavy on political slogans and light on details, but it is a clear endorsement of Xi’s vision for the path ahead – there are some policy tweaks, but no fundamental change of course.” The focus on “new quality productive forces” and the tech upgrading of the real economy means growing pressure on scientists and tech companies. MERICS Lead Analyst Rebecca Arcesati says: “The tension between producing fundamental breakthroughs and delivering industrial applications may become more apparent as resources are scarce and local cadres get conflicting KPIs.” MERICS chief economist Max J. Zenglein, who has just analyzed China’s latest quarterly economic data, says: “The Chinese leadership is reinforcing its narrative that the country is on the right trajectory. It will not let its long-term policy objectives be impacted by short-term economic troubles. The leadership is set to stick to its current path, which means less market and more party control.” The Third Plenum was a chance to lay out policy decisions to address the many issues the country is facing, including sluggish growth, rising government debt and unemployment. Alexander Davey, Analyst at MERICS comments on the issues China is facing: “There isn't any new idea or any new way of dealing with this” that came out of this Third Plenum. You can listen to our new MERICS China Podcast episode with Alexander Davey here: A lack of new ideas at the third plenum, with Alexander Davey: https://lnkd.in/e5U2Wi-a Take a look at major meetings outcomes in the months running up to the plenum where the party has been telegraphing its intentions on topics like a unified national market, the party’s self-revolution and Chinese-style modernization: https://lnkd.in/efqzn3JT