Thomas Monteiro’s Post

Do people need to lose their jobs for the economy to progress? During 2022 and 2023, the Fed raised interest rates to temper economic growth. On the other hand, workers are more concerned about wage increases than cooling the economy. In this article, Lisa Shallet highlights that the Fed lacks an explicitly stated framework for balancing inflation and employment, despite its dual mandate… As we navigate this interesting point in the economic cycle and with the election just around the corner, stay tuned for taxation, deficit and debt conversations to be bantered about like a racing shell on turbulent water.

📊 The U.S. labor market has returned to pre-pandemic levels, potentially bringing Federal Reserve rate cuts closer. As employment figures stabilize, the Fed may consider easing monetary policies to support sustained economic growth. This development signals a significant step towards economic normalization and could influence investment strategies in the coming months. ING James Knightley #LaborMarket #EconomicTrends #FederalReserve #Investment #MarketInsights

📊 Appreciated the opportunity to share Quintet Private Bank’s views on the all-important US jobs data with IFA Magazine. The numbers look consistent with an economy that’s slowing but not suddenly going through a crash. The Fed, which is likely to start its rate cutting cycle this month, is now much more focused on mitigating downside risks to growth than upside risks to inflation. While we might continue to see bouts of volatility, a key development is the return of the inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, which could help cushion possible market wobbles. #economy #inflation #centralbanks #markets

🛡️ The Federal Reserve's Pivot: Employment Stability Over Inflation In a telltale shift in focus, economists are forecasting that the Federal Reserve may soon prioritize employment stability over inflation control, signaling potential rate reductions. 🔍 Here's the crux: - The Fed's strategy shift could aim to bolster employment and economic stability. - With inflation concerns somewhat subdued, the emphasis may turn towards sustaining job growth. - Economists suggest rate cuts could be on the horizon as the Fed charts a new course. 📊 Key Insights: 💼 Unemployment and economic stability could take center stage. 📉 Rate cuts might come sooner than anticipated to support employment. 🛠️ A proactive stance from the Fed could reshape economic dynamics. What does this mean for your business and investments? Adjust your strategies in light of potential rate changes and prioritize workforce stability in your planning. 🔗 Engage with this evolving landscape and share your thoughts is this shift a prudent move for long-term economic health? #FederalReserve #Economy #Employment #Inflation #RateCuts 🔍 Looking forward to your insights and experiences! Read More:

As we enter September, we’ve had a lot of news and incoming data come in with implications for the trajectory of the economy going forward. Perhaps the most significant has been the apparent signals by members of the Federal Reserve that they are expecting to begin cutting rates potentially as early as their meeting later this month. This transition in monetary policy comes amidst the backdrop of incoming data that suggests continued progress on inflation and some further weakening in the labor market. While last month’s turbulence in the market appears to be isolated, many will be closely tracking the extent to which the labor market continues to weaken and if that leads to a more systematic slowdown. So as we enter the last month of the third quarter, there is a lot of interest in projecting where the economy is headed. The latest release of the Brave-Butters-Kelley Indexes (BBKI) has the coincident indicator at -0.5 for July, declining slightly from our revised estimate for June of -0.4: https://buff.ly/3R8hpIb This reading suggests the economy hovered the last two months below trend, which our model estimates to be near 2.8%. This read in part reflects the modest decrease in payroll employment growth, an uptick in the unemployment rate, and a modest decrease in housing starts in July. As was the case last month, a read like this from the BBKI suggests a slowing of the economy but one that is still not far from trend. With the recent progress on inflation, the next few months are likely to be a critical moment for the economy and ultimately will determine if the end of the inflationary cycle comes with the desired soft landing. #economicindicators #economicoutlook #bigdata #bigdataanalytics #economicgrowth #inflation #interestrates #federalreserve

After the September jobs report showed the U.S. added more jobs than expected last month, Client Portfolio Manager Brian Mulberry questioned the Fed’s latest rate cut and what the data will mean for monetary policy moving forward. He shared his take with Vivien Lou Chen of MarketWatch, noting, “‘They might be easing too much, too fast right now in a way that sparks more inflation down the road.” Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gFNuUWC5 #Inflation #Employment #Economy #InterestRates

Market indexes, excitedly, reacted to a .2% weekly swing in the job report. My advice is take a breath, relax for a moment. While this trend is a negative, it is only one week and will undergo a few revisions before being finalized months from now. Could this be the building of momentum indicating an impending apocalyptic slowdown of the economy? Hmmm yes. Is it? Not at this moment in time. Economies do not revert to relatively strong to recession overnight, or in a week, or a month. …Except when panics arise from irrational interpretation of economic indicators that usually result in “lockup”, and flight of liquidity in massive scale. If one examines history, most deep recessions, depressions are more the result of panic than the underlying objective economic conditions. Because of the bloated size of monetary supply in proportion to overall economic activity, a Lehman Brothers style collapse (unto itself) would not be as detrimental currently as it was in 07-08. But a panic in reaction to one could well have a tsunami effect upon indexed markets. So for now, tune in to Netflix, chill , enjoy some popcorn, enjoy the show before making panicked financial decisions . All, including the FOMC, must wait for the data to continue to roll in to get a more complete picture. 10-year Treasury yield dives to the lowest since December after weak jobs report

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted rising job market risks from sustained high borrowing costs, signaling a cooling labor market.  Despite investor expectations for rate cuts by September, Powell refrained from providing a specific timeline, emphasizing the importance of employment stability.  Inflation has decreased significantly from 7.1% in June 2022 to 2.6% in May 2024, leading the Fed to hold its benchmark rate at a two-decade high.  Powell's remarks suggest that the Fed may prioritize job market conditions over premature rate cuts. This move could significantly impact investment strategies and market dynamics, requiring investors to stay alert and attentive. Read more:

The market has been pretty crazy the last few weeks with changes to investor mindsets. Bad news may be bad news again. Volatility is expected. Some Investors have been looking forward to rate cuts and other investors are thinking rate cuts will only begin when we have significant risk of recession including high unemployment. The recent jobs report showed unemployment (see the chart) is still below historical averages, but did increase month over month by .2% to 4.3%. 4.3% is up from 3.6% where unemployment was in May 2022 when the rate increases began. New Jobless claims were released yesterday. This information showed that we had fewer new unemployment claims for the week than expected, which is good news for those hoping that the Fed is on pace for the ‘Soft Landing’ scenario. (Rate cuts happening without being in a recession) The market responded with the S&P having its best day since 2022. The index is still down from its all time high set in July 2024 by about 6%, but is up over 25% over the last two years. Reach out to learn more about how to plan ahead for these economic developments. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, (Accessed August 9th 2024) https://lnkd.in/dk2kAM7 #BulldogFinancialPlanning #hourlyfinancialplanning #BulldogFP #financialplanning #financialfreedom #finance #financialadvisor #investing #financialgoals #wealth #retirementplanning #financialplanner #money #wealthmanagement #moneymanagement #investmentaccount #401k https://wix.to/24aVk6X

Powell: Fed to move cautiously on rate cuts. The Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, emphasized its commitment to cutting rates cautiously, citing economic stability and inflation control. Smaller cuts are expected in 2024, with flexibility based on employment data. https://lnkd.in/eWgxPbCK Federal Reserve Board #ratecuts #interestrates #inflation #economicstability #monetarypolicy Raphael Bostic #employmentdata MFED: Model Federal Open Market Committee #jobmarket MENA Newswire