Tom Rees’ Post

The group stage of UEFA #Euro2024 wrapped up last night, with some last minute dramas, dodgy decisions, and heroic underdog performances. That's what makes football so exciting, even if it makes the job of forecasting so much harder! We only gave #Georgia an 8% chance of beating #Portugal last night - an even bigger upset than #Slovakia's 1-0 win over #Belgium - but it was fantastic to see them get that fairy-tale result. With 36 matches played, its fair to say that our forecasting performance hasn't maintained the highs of the first round of matches, but we're still hanging in there! We correctly forecast the outcome of 17 of the games (47% versus 33% random chance) and the average probability we assigned to the actual match outcome was 40% (versus 33% random chance). One of the biggest factors in our forecasting struggles was the unusually high number of draws in the second and third round of group stage matches, with more than half of the games ending in stalemate compared to a typical 20-25% in most leagues and tournaments. There's less than 0.2% chance of seeing 13 or more draws in 24 matches (assuming the results are independent of each other) so we've been very unlucky in that regard! Nonetheless, our pre-tournament progression forecasts have held up well. We correctly picked the group winner for 4 of the 6 groups, and the average probability we assigned to the actual group winner was 45% (versus 25% random chance). Across all the teams progressing to the last 16, the average probability we assigned to them was 73% (versus 67% random chance). The team who have out-performed the most so far is #Georgia, who only had a 38% probability of progressing to the last 16. The team who should be most disappointed not to progress is #Croatia who had a 77% chance of surviving to the knockout stage, despite being in a tricky group with #Spain and #Italy. Match forecasts for the first round of knockout games coming soon... 😎 #Dectech #football #forecast #Euro2024

The first round of group stage matches has just wrapped up at UEFA #Euro2024, with #Portugal getting a 92nd minute winner to avoid a shock defeat to the #CzechRepublic. That means its time to share our forecasts for the second round of group stage matches and to review how the Dectech forecasts are faring after twelve matches... We forecast the correct result in 9 of the 12 games (75% versus 33% random chance). The average probability we assigned to the actual outcome was 49% (versus 33% random chance). While most of the big teams came through their opening match as expected, the biggest upset of the round was #Slovakia's win over #Belgium - we gave that outcome just an 11% probability! In the second round of group stage matches, we expect to see #Portugal and #Germany comfortably progress to the knockout stages, but some of the other top teams face tougher tests. Two tasty fixtures to look out for are #Spain versus #Italy and #Netherlands versus #France. #England won't have an easy game against #Denmark, but I'll be keeping my fingers crossed that they do enough to win. The hardest game to forecast is #Slovakia against #Ukraine, though we think the latter just have the edge. With 2.8 goals per match so far, its been an exciting start to the tournament. Here's hoping that continues! ⚽ ⚽ ⚽ #dectech #football #prediction #Euro2024

Little more than a year after #Argentina were crowned #champions at the 2022 #FIFAWorldCup, #Qatar is once again playing host to a major international football tournament, the #AFCAsianCup. Since its inauguration in 1956, the quadrennial tournament organized by the Asian #Football Confederation has grown both in size and in stature. Following its latest expansion in 2019, the #AsianCup now involves 24 national teams from the #AsianConfederation competing for a spot in the #final, which will be held at #Lusail Stadium on February 10. According to the bookmakers, record champions #Japan, #SouthKorea and #Iran are the favorites to win this year’s tournament, with #Australia, #SaudiArabia and Qatar also in contention for the title. Host country Qatar will be particularly keen to follow up on their 2019 triumph, especially after a disappointing group stage exit at the World Cup last year. Among the favorites, Japan and South Korea are the only ones to have dropped points on the first two match days of the #groupstage, as #Iraq stunned Japan in their 2-1 win on Friday and Korea needed an injury-time #equalizer to avert a shock #defeat against #Jordan on Saturday. Both teams still have every chance to go through to the #knockout stages, however, as the #tournament’s format also see the four best third-placed teams from advance into the round of 16. As our chart shows, no nation has won the Asian Cup more often than Japan, who lifted the #trophy four times, most recently in 2011. South Korea dominated the early years of the #competition with consecutive #wins in 1956 and 1960 but has since been waiting for a third victory. With a squad including #PremierLeague strikers Son Heung-min and Hwang Hee-chan as well as #BayernMunich defender Kim Min-jae, many think that this could be the year for the current generation of Korean players to make their mark at the international stage, but the start under new manager Jürgen Klinsmann has been underwhelming. https://lnkd.in/gGe6at5s

ICC WORLD TEST CHAMPIONSHIP ANALYSIS ##please #suggest #for #improvement The #ICC #World #Test #Championship (#WTC) for the 2023-2025 cycle began with the Ashes series between #England and #Australia on June 16, 2023. The cycle features 68 matches across 27 series, with each of the nine participating teams (Australia, Bangladesh, England, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka, and West Indies) playing six series—three at home and three away [[❞]](https://lnkd.in/dBxUv4aj) [[❞]](https://lnkd.in/d_m4K3BA). Key points about the current cycle: - The standings are determined by the percentage of points earned. - Each Test win earns a team 12 points, a draw earns 4 points per team, and a tie earns 6 points per team. Points can be deducted for slow over rates. - England is playing the most matches (21), followed by Australia and India (19 each) [[❞]](https://lnkd.in/dBxUv4aj) [[❞]](https://lnkd.in/deafkHwy). Australia, the defending champions, started the cycle with a 2-2 draw in the Ashes series against England. They also secured a 3-0 home series win over Pakistan [[❞]](https://lnkd.in/d_m4K3BA) [[❞]](https://lnkd.in/deafkHwy). The cycle will conclude with the top two teams playing the final at Lord's in 2025 [[❞]](https://lnkd.in/dBxUv4aj) [[❞]](https://lnkd.in/dppk84Yf). For more detailed information and updates, you can visit the official [ICC website](https://lnkd.in/dppk84Yf) [[❞]](https://lnkd.in/dppk84Yf). #powerbi #dax #sql #data #analysis #query #india #championshil #australia #england #newzeland

🏆⚽️ UEFA EURO 2024 in unusual numbers❓ Here you go! Follow me this month to study the data that no one asked for but everyone can learn with. 📊⚽📈 There will be only one post more in the series so please don't miss it. Did you know that the most frequent scoreline in the history of the UEFA European Championship is the 1-1 draw? Even this year there have been 10 games ending up with this result. 🤯 But that’s not all—let’s dive into the top three most common results that keep us glued to our seats! 📺 📊 Stats Corner (without EURO 2024): 1-1 Draw: 11.6% of all matches 🤝 0-0 Draw: 8.9% of all matches 🥱 2-1 Victory: 8.6% of all matches⚔️ ✨ Whether you're a fan of nail-biting finishes or love the suspense of a well-fought draw, these scorelines are staples of Euro football magic. Here’s to many more thrilling matches and, who knows, maybe more of these familiar results to keep us on the edge of our seats! 🍿⚽️ Want to learn more about inspiring stats for EURO 2024 GmbH❓ Follow me during this tournament and visit 👉 Legia Training Center to discover the world of football data studies and innovation! #Football #Euro2024 #SoccerStats #FunFacts #SportsData #UEFA #FootballLovers

Latest match permutations & team news for the final round of the ARMC 2024 ⬇ Match Permutations – UAE vs Malaysia (Friday 21 June) ➡ UAE could finish 2nd if they beat Malaysia ➡ Malaysia could climb as many as four places to 45th in the rankings if they beat the UAE by more than 15 points in Dubai. ➡ The UAE can climb another five places to 42nd if they win and overtake Malaysia. Match Permutations – HKCR vs South Korea (Saturday 22 June) ➡ Hong Kong China could win a 5th straight title if they beat South Korea ➡ Hong Kong China will remain in 24th in the rankings if they beat Korea to win the Asia Rugby Men’s Championship 2024 title. ➡ A defeat for Hong Kong China means they will drop at least one place in the rankings, and three if the margin is by more than 15 points. ➡ If Korea wins, they will regain the three places they lost following the defeat by the UAE a fortnight ago, returning to 30th place. Match streams are available on RugbyPassTV and Asia Rugby #ARMC #HKCR #MalaysiaRugby #RugbyUnion #rugbyasia247 #koreaRugby #UAERugby #sports https://lnkd.in/grb_s7YV

A proposal for a new competition: the UEFA European Super Champion Now that we are approaching the end of the major tournaments of the season, now that the #trophy #winners of the #European_UEFA_Cups are emerging one by one, now that we already have the #UEFA_Europa_League (#UEL) trophy club, the #UEFA_Europa_Conference_League (#UECL) trophy club, now that the procedures and concepts for UEFA's future plans are being finalised, I would like to propose a new #competition: The #UEFA_European_Super_Champion (#UESC), resulting from a ranking tournament with matches between the #UEFA_Champions_League (#UCL) , the UEL and the UECL trophy clubs. That is, every year, sometime in September, in a host country, also selected every year, three clubs, three matches and whatever scores are accumulated, the UESC would emerge. What do you think? Those of the #UEFA decision makers who see my suggestion above, please consider it and act appropriately and competently...

🏆⚽️ UEFA EURO 2024 in unusual numbers❓ Here you go! Follow me this month to study the data that no one asked for but everyone can learn with. 📊⚽📈 16 yellow cards and 2 🟥 red ones shown by a referee in one game at EURO 2024? Yes, it did happen during the Turkey vs Czech Republic group game but... it was not the dirtiest game ever at EUROs. Let's have a look at the numbers for matches that almost made the refs tear up their pockets at previous tournaments. 1. Portugal vs Netherlands (2006)   - 🟥 4 red cards   - 🟨 16 yellow cards   - Known as the "Battle of Nuremberg," this match saw a staggering total of 20 cards! 2. Turkey vs Portugal (2000)   - 🟥 2 red cards   - 🟨 11 yellow cards   - A fiercely contested game that resulted in 13 cards being brandished. 3. ****** vs Netherlands (2008)   - 🟥 1 red cards   - 🟨 7 yellow cards   - With 8 cards in total, this match was as much about discipline as it was about skill, - I do not mention the name of a country that has been invading another one. 4. France vs Portugal (2000)   - 🟥 1 red cards   - 🟨 6 yellow cards   - A thrilling semi-final encounter featuring 7 cards, reflecting the tension on the pitch. 5. Italy vs Germany (1988)   - 🟥 1 red cards   - 🟨 5 yellow cards   - An intense matchup resulting in 6 cards, showcasing the fierce competition between these giants. ⚽️ What are your most memorable moments from these matches? Share your thoughts below! ⬇️ Want to learn more about inspiring stats for EURO 2024 GmbH❓ Follow me during this tournament and visit 👉 Legia Training Center to discover the world of football data studies and innovation! #SoccerStats #EUROs #EURO2024 #FootballHistory #EUROHistory

⚽ UEFA EURO 2024 UPDATE: Teams through to the Round of 16 ⚽ 🏟 The group stage is over, and the 24 teams that started the UEFA EURO 2024 on June 14 have been whittled down to just 16 for the knockout rounds. With six group winners, six group runners-up and the four best third-place teams advancing to the Round of 16, which kicks off on June 29. The Round of 16 matches are split into two halves, and each will produce a finalist who will compete to lift the Henri Delaunay Cup 🏆 in Berlin on July 14. 🥅 Germany, Spain, Portugal, France, Denmark, and Belgium qualified for the first half of the Round of 16 bracket. The other half includes Switzerland, Italy, Austria, England, Romania, and Turkey. Netherlands, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Georgia also qualified for the Round of 16 as one of four best third-place finishers. 🥇 The Round of 16 is known as the knockout rounds because there are no points earned, just single elimination from here on out. Each knockout-round match and all subsequent matches of the championship, through to the final, must have a winner on the day. This means that if teams are tied after 90 minutes, the match will go into a 30-minute period of extra time.⏱ 📺 Here are the Round of 16 schedule dates and fixtures: Switzerland vs Italy (Sat 29 June) Germany vs Denmark (Sat 29 June) England vs Slovakia (Sun 30 June) Spain vs Georgia (Sun 30 June) France vs Belgium (Mon 1 July) Portugal vs Slovenia (Mon 1 July) Romania vs Netherlands (Tue 2 July) Austria vs Turkey (Tue 2 July) #Euro2024 #Roundof16

How Can England Qualify For T20 World Cup Super 8s If Game Against Namibia Is Washed Out? - Times Now: How Can England Qualify For T20 World Cup Super 8s If Game Against Namibia Is Washed Out?  Times Now