Torus’ Post

I had the honor of delivering the MIT Energy Initiative's Fall Colloquium. The key message is in the title: “Stay humble and prepare for surprises: lessons for the energy transition” Here are some highlights: 📌 Long-term energy models should not be used to produce singular forecasts. 📌 Instead, we need to develop insights conditioned on future uncertainty. 📌 EIA (and many others) were surprised by past developments, including production from shale resources and renewables deployment. 📌 At EIA, we’re expanding uncertainty quantification with our existing models. 📌 We’re also developing a next generation model that will be more nimble, flexible, and better equipped to address future uncertainty. 📌 Even with sophisticated models and uncertainty assessment techniques, modelers must remain humble when interpreting model results.

Excellent post Joseph DeCarolis. Especially the first two points on use of energy models to produce a singular forecast and insights conditioned on uncertainties. These words of wisdom by Joseph DeCarolis should be considered especially as firms or governments identify and assess climate-related risks and opportunities, including use of a single transition scenario analysis to guide decisions.

At MITEI's Fall Colloquium, Joseph DeCarolis, the administrator of the U.S. Energy Information Administration, explained why long-term energy models are not forecasting tools—and why they’re still vitally important. “We can use models to help inform decision strategies,” DeCarolis said. “We know there’s a bunch of future uncertainty. We don’t know what’s going to happen, but we can incorporate that uncertainty into our model and help come up with a path forward.” Read the article: https://lnkd.in/e-eiDH3d Watch the colloquium: https://lnkd.in/emf64Byv #energy #modeling

Did you know that tens of thousands of megawatts of renewable energy projects are queued up waiting for interconnection studies that can take years? Chelsea Mattioda and Sophie Schadler talk about how to get these projects moving quickly by replacing existing coal generators that are retiring (44 GW of potential in SPP and MISO regions) and by using surplus interconnection capacity available at existing low use gas peakers (34 GW in SPP and MISO). Tapping into these opportunities has the potential to speed up clean capacity additions. Read the report. Watch the The Energy Nerd Show. Southwest Power Pool Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) #renewableenergy #pv #wind #batteries #grid #griddecarbonization #generatorinterconnection Sun2o Partners Synapse Energy Economics

Final insights from our last panel of the day on 'Ensuring Capacity Adequacy through the Energy Transition' ⚡"[Power] markets are like kids. You have a favorite one you just aren't allowed to say it out loud." -MaryAnne Brelinsky   Our panelists Gordon van Welie (ISO New England Inc.), MaryAnne Brelinsky (Alpha Generation), Pat Wood, III (Hunt Energy Network) Thad Hill (Calpine) explored achieving balance in the evolving grid, the sufficiency of existing market mechanisms, and necessary changes for future challenges. #AuroraEnergyTransitionForum #AuroraNORAM #AuroraEnergyResearch

On this episode of the Energy Nerd Show we chat with Chelsea Mattioda and Sophie Schadler from Synapse Energy Economics about their new report on accelerating grid interconnection. Check out this episode and the report: https://lnkd.in/eiq4N5eA

Energy, the fundamental driving force of the universe, exists in various forms, each with its unique characteristics and applications. This article delves into the different types of energy, providing insights into their nature and how they contribute to our world.

Less than two weeks until the SPE Energy Transition Symposium! Gain valuable insights from the plenary speakers on powering tomorrow - R&D and technology development in the energy transition.

Researching the intersection of the earth system and energy systems? Submit your abstract to #AGU24 GC114, Net-Zero Emissions Energy Systems: Geophysical Constraints, Consequences, and Opportunities. I've loved organizing this session in the past, as it's a great launching point for interdisciplinary conversations!

Check out our blog: A-Z in 17 REEs. As a result of the green energy revolution, rare earth elements are key components in clean energy generation and storage including electric vehicle batteries and generators for wind turbines. This blog and its accompanying white paper outline key analytical techniques underpinning essential work in elemental identification, characterization and quantification. https://bit.ly/48fLpr3