Trade Data Monitor LLC’s Post

📈 Industry Alert: With tariffs on Canadian lumber rising, it's crucial to reassess specifications for US based projects. This change could have significant cost implications—something to consider as we move forward. #USConstruction #LumberTariffs #SupplyChain #BuildingMaterials #IndustryNews

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽 TRUMP SAYS 25% TARIFFS ON CANADA, MEXICO COMING SATURDAY Narrative A: The tariffs are necessary to protect American interests and force neighboring countries to address border security concerns. The US doesn't need Canadian and Mexican products, has sufficient domestic oil production, and can quickly make up for any decline in imports. Additionally, Trump's decision could be a way for Washington to gain an upper hand ahead of new negotiations on a regional trade agreement. Narrative B: The proposed tariffs would severely disrupt decades of economic integration, raise consumer prices, and trigger a devastating trade war that would harm all three economies. With Canada and Mexico pledging to respond with retaliatory tariffs, Trump's decision could particularly damage critical supply chains in the automotive, agriculture, and energy sectors while failing to address the stated border security concerns.

Economists have been responding with foreboding forecasts of trade wars and inflation in response to Trump’s announcement that he will enact 25% tariffs on all products imported from Mexico and Canada and an increase on existing tariffs on Chinese products by 10%. But economists are not factoring into their analysis the game theoretical component of negotiation and bargaining—77% or Canada’s exports are purchased by the US and 83% of Mexico’s exports are purchased by the US. Trump understands the strong hand that he has been dealt, and he is using the leverage of the US economy to get a win on issues that are important to US voters. The Presidents of Mexico and Canda have already reached out to Trump and are showing signs of making an attempt to meet his demands. It’s way too soon to conclude that tariffs of this magnitude will be imposed.

Our most recent insight looks at Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico (top 3 imports are oil, gasoline, and vehicles & parts). Yes this would temporarily support steel prices in the US, but applying this tariff is not the point of this threat. These tariff threats are meant to kickstart negotiations over trade as well as other areas of cooperation. Perhaps President Trump is able to use this leverage to force new terms on these trading partners and this can become an early win in his presidency. Further details and thoughts on how these tariffs would affect the steel market are free to read at the below link (with a simple registration). https://lnkd.in/eZ5XDyt4

Tariffs are paid by the importer, or an intermediary acting on the importer’s behalf, though the costs are typically passed on. The foreign company that makes the product may decide to lower prices as a concession to the importer. Or it might spend significant sums to build a factory somewhere to sidestep the tariff. Or an importer — Walmart and Target are among the biggest in the US — could raise prices of the item when it’s sold on. In this case, it’s the consumer who shoulders the tariff cost indirectly. It can be difficult to sort through the economic effects of tariffs. They can stimulate employment by attracting investment as companies try to get around tariffs by moving factories to the taxing country. Meanwhile, they can provoke retaliatory tariffs that cost jobs in other parts of the economy. Economists are still untangling the inflationary effects of Trump’s initial tariffs from a much bigger shock to supply chains and economic activity that started not long after the US-China trade war began: the Covid-19 pandemic. #tariff #inflation #businessstrategy #supplychainmanagement

U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs: 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on imports from China. Oil from Canada will be taxed at 10%, more oil and gas tariffs expected in mid-February. Trump dismissed the possibility of delaying the tariffs and stated that they are not a bargaining tool but a response to trade deficits. Additional tariffs on European goods, steel, aluminum, copper, drugs, and semiconductors are under consideration. Financial markets reacted negatively, with the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso weakening, and U.S. stock prices declining. The Canadian government plans to implement retaliatory tariffs targeting U.S. imports, potentially affecting up to C$150 billion worth of goods. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated a readiness to retaliate and emphasized the potential job losses in the U.S. due to the tariffs. China expressed opposition to the tariffs and warned against the consequences of a trade war. #trump #tariffs #ustariffs #globaltrade #tradewar #canada #mexico #china

The US will consider 'tripling' the Section 301 tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China. Will this matter for steel? In 2023 the share of Chinese imports into the US was only 2% (about 0.55 million tonnes). Source: ITA/DOC. These 7.5% tariffs could increase to 25%. Even if this slight change lowers the amount of Chinese steel imported into the US, it really is lost in a ~100 million tonne market. What is more important than this slight change to Section 301 tariffs? A couple of mega trends that are set to support steel demand in North America for the coming years. CRU clients get access to our professional team of market analysts who can walk through various scenarios for today, tomorrow, and beyond. We thrive on these client discussions. https://lnkd.in/eTU9NQeW

Read this for insights from CRU's US team on Trump's tariff threat and what it could mean for the #steel industry, and of course by implication #ferroalloys suppliers. #manganese # US

🧵 Trump Pledges New Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China 💼🌎 President-elect Donald Trump plans to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico & Canada starting Day 1, and an additional 10% on Chinese goods. These moves mark a significant shift in U.S. trade policy. 🚨 1️⃣ These tariffs are tied to Trump’s pledge to stop the flow of fentanyl and illegal migration into the U.S. He’s targeting countries he accuses of not doing enough. 2️⃣ Economic impact The tariffs could upend the USMCA trade deal, which facilitated $1.8 trillion in trade between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada in 2022. Experts warn of higher consumer prices and strained economies for U.S. allies. 🛍️📊 3️⃣ Reactions so far - Mexico’s peso weakened after the announcement. - Canada’s tightly integrated oil & auto industries are at risk. - Critics warn of price hikes for U.S. consumers, but supporters like Elon Musk back the plan as “highly effective.” 4️⃣ Trump also plans to renegotiate USMCA by 2026, further reshaping North American trade dynamics. 5️⃣ While controversial, these measures could dramatically alter global trade relations—especially as China faces scrutiny over its role in fentanyl production.