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With the Fed shifting to a more accommodative monetary policy, and the U.S. debt continuing to climb, what does the future hold for interest rates and the economy? Chairman Jerome Powell’s latest remarks signal significant changes ahead. Read the full analysis on how these shifts might impact markets and long-term debt securities. 👉 Read the full rundown here: https://hubs.li/Q02SdBGw0

The US has increased its quarterly debt sales, but does not expect any further increases in the near future, as reported on Bloomberg. Also, see CNBC's interview with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in which he states that a rate cut in March is unlikely. Stay up-to-date on the latest developments in the financial and commodity markets. Read the IMF's special analysis entitled "Moderating Inflation and Steady Growth Open Path to soft land." Find out more in our weekly newsletter on our website👇 https://lnkd.in/dPwbV5Xk #oureconomyandtheworld #bloomberg #imf #reuters #eces

Given that people and companies are likely pulling out money to pay taxes, the liquidity crunch doesn’t come as a total surprise – it’s a bit of an air pocket as folks manage outflows around tax time. The Fed looking towards quantitative tightening, per their March minutes, also gives signs of hope. The trend is worrisome and certainly something to monitor but the Fed and government officials have plenty of tools at their disposal to ensure that liquidity and demand stay high.

Let's talk about the real interest rate. We need to get back to neutral rates without creating QE-like liquidity. Credit/Debt servicing stress is already appearing in the wider economy and for consumers, corporations, and governments.

a few thoughts while waiting for mr powell to address an adoring press: from what we can tell, 10yr rates at 5%+ represents a level that requires the fed to make a decision: raise rates, to kill inflation- as well as the economy, and the equity markets. or... lower rates/institute another qe-type program- to help the govt meet its debt obligations, and enable it to keep issuing massive amounts of new debt. that would also prob make all risk assets (gold/BTC as well) go thru the roof. for awhile. then massive inflation, ala 1980, will batter everything. but those that made hay while the sun shined, then got out, will be very happy. but most will be crushed, in the end. the govt, the fed and the treasury are fighting a monster of their own creation, sadly. fortunately for us, we have chances to make money, no matter what happens. 👍

How the Treasury Is More Powerful Than the Fed Decisions made by the Treasury get much less attention than those made by the Federal Reserve, but they can be even more consequential for interest rates — and the entire US economy. A case in point is the current debate over the maturity of the bonds and bills the Treasury sells at auction. An influential report published last month argued that the Treasury is issuing too much short-term debt, undermining the Fed’s efforts to slow down the economy. https://lnkd.in/gFDzA37W

As most equity markets continue to reach new record highs, concerns regarding U.S. debt levels are growing louder. In this month's market commentary, we explore the delicate balance the Fed seeks to achieve in avoiding a recession while curbing inflation, the implications of rising debt and savings rates, and the nuances of wage growth and stock market performance.

Issuances of US Treasuries are now at pandemic levels: We saw nearly $7 trillion in gross issuances of US Treasures in just 3 months during 2023. For the entire year of 2023, a whopping $23 TRILLION in US Treasuries were issued. US federal debt is rising by $1 trillion every 90 days right now. US government spending as a percentage of GDP is at World War 2 levels. Why are Treasury issuances and deficits at record levels if we are on track for a "soft landing?"Issuances of US Treasuries are now at pandemic levels:@kobeissiletter

What is the message of rising bond yields? There are many factors at play, but, if I had to pick the most important, I would say it is the market's slow realization that the terminal rate is much higher than the Fed's estimate. Great speaking with Morgan L Brennan and Jon Fortt as always!