Ulrich Heimhard’s Post

For professional investors only. The US economy experienced higher job growth in December, leading to a market downturn as concerns about inflation rose. But Chief Global Market Strategist Kristina Hooper notes that the US also saw an easing in wage growth, which is arguably the most important contributor to inflation. Kristina thinks the market drop was an overreaction, but she says that the totality of data releases last week led markets to temper their expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.

With the latest US jobs data released today pointing to a weakening US economy, there’s clearly much more being read into this data than just stockmarket moves. Investment strategists have been sharing their reaction to today’s US jobs data, including their assessment of what it means for the economy and the direction of US interest rates as follows: #USJobs #USEconomy

Strong job growth and low unemployment signal the Fed may limit rate cuts in 2025, keeping borrowing costs higher for longer - especially with Trump re-entering the political landscape. How are you preparing for this challenging economic environment?

In June, the US economy added 206,000 jobs, reflecting a steady but moderated pace of growth in the labor market. This data underscores current economic stability amidst slight cooling compared to previous months. As these figures are closely scrutinized by investors and policymakers alike, they provide critical insights into the trajectory of interest rates and overall economic policy in the near term. How the Federal Reserve navigates these indicators will shape market sentiment and could influence broader economic conditions as inflation figures and policy decisions unfold in the coming months. #Economy #Inflation #AI

The latest jobs report revealed higher unemployment and fewer jobs added in July, raising doubts about the economy's soft landing. The Federal Reserve, which recently held interest rates steady, is under pressure to cut rates to avoid a recession. Economists argue the Fed might have waited too long to ease monetary policy. Despite this, the labor market remains relatively strong, and the US isn't in a recession yet. The Fed's next move, likely in September, will depend on upcoming economic data. For more details, read the full article [here](https://lnkd.in/gY7YuMNJ).

The U.S. September jobs report came in higher than expected at 254,000 jobs, sparking concern about the upcoming Federal Reserve's rate hike plans. Ahead of the data's release, Managing Director of Investment Decision Research Melissa Brown shared with Krystal Hur of CNN Business, "It’s too early to see the full impact of the Fed reversal," and noted a higher jobs report could lead the Fed to change their 25 bps plan at the next two meetings. Read more: https://lnkd.in/gXbtmBsP #JobsReport #FederalReserve #RateCuts  

A blockbuster September employment report and recent GDP revisions have transformed the narrative surrounding the US economy. Many now question whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) moved too aggressively in September by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, and whether a more gradual approach to normalizing monetary policy is warranted. Indeed, recent data present an economic landscape reminiscent of last year’s: growth remains persistently above trend, job creation far exceeds what is necessary to maintain a stable unemployment rate and inflation is inching back towards target. Yet, the rapid shift from August’s slowdown concerns to October’s “Goldilocks” scenario invites caution. The volatility in economic outlooks underscores a cycle that is charting its own course, largely unconstrained by historical precedent. Read more in our latest Investment Outlook publication: https://ow.ly/3AZn50TYlNb Please view the newsletter for complete disclosures.

The views expressed are my own and not of my employer. I will add that the U.S. economy overall is doing great, thanks to the Biden/Harris Administration. I'd like to continue this trend. Huge news: The US economy added 254,000 jobs in September, soaring past expectations. Jobs and wages are up. Unemployment and inflation are down. This unprecedented economic growth isn't accidental. It's the result of the Biden-Harris administration's decision to prioritize investments in the American people and lowering costs for hardworking families -- creating a strong economic foundation that benefits all of us. https://lnkd.in/ePt8ncji

The U.S. #economy surprised analysts with a robust addition of 272,000 jobs in May, surpassing expectations. #Wages also saw a significant increase of 4.1% from a year ago. This unexpected data has created uncertainty for the Federal Reserve System with implications for upcoming meetings. Stock market reactions were mixed, with #stocks initially falling but recovering by the end of the day. Government bond yields also reacted, reflecting expectations for Fed rate adjustments. Is this a good time to start a #jobsearch you’ve been putting off? #Economy #Employment #Inflation #FederalReserve #Jobsearch #Careercoaching #Hiring #Salary

Why hasn't the highest rate rise in recent decades triggered a recession? The labour market holds the key to this resilient economic performance. Juan de Dios Sanchez-Roselly, CFA, and Cristina González Iregui, from our global investment team, analyse the performance of the US labour market by comparing job creation under different restrictive monetary policies. It has been 27 months since the reversal of the rate curve inversion of the yield curve and monthly employment growth dynamics in the US have continued to surprise. View our forecasts for this quarter at #MarketOutlook Q324 👉 https://bit.ly/3zFAfzm #PrivateBanking #Economy #Market