Upside’s Post

The Consumer Price Index rose 3.5% over the past 12 months, up from 3.2% year-over-year in February and the strongest rate since September. At the same time, core inflation (which excludes food and energy) increased 3.8% year-over-year in March, the same pace as in February, remaining the slowest pace since May 2021. Overall, these data highlight a mixed picture for consumer inflation. On the positive side, core inflation continues to moderate, albeit not as fast as expected. Yet, the uptick in costs in the latest data shows how stubborn prices can be, even with progress over the past year. In contrast to the uptick in the overall CPI, growth in menu prices continued to slow in March. The Consumer Price Index for Food Away from Home increased 4.2% between March 2023 and March 2024. That represented the 12th consecutive month of decelerating growth and the smallest 12-month increase since June 2021. Within the food-away-from-home sector, limited-service menu prices outpaced the fullservice segment in recent months, although growth rates in both price indices are well below their recent highs. Prices for limited-service meals and snacks increased 5.0% between March 2023 and March 2024. That was the smallest 12-month increase since August 2020, after peaking at 8.2% in April 2023. Fullservice menu prices rose 3.2% between March 2023 and March 2024. That represented the smallest 12-month gain since March 2021, after topping out at 9.0% during several months of 2022. For more information, see the National Restaurant Association post from Bruce Grindy and me: https://lnkd.in/e8ZNZeex.

Shop price inflation dropped for the second consecutive month in February, hitting its lowest point since March 2022. Food inflation slipped to 5.5%, marking the tenth monthly decrease. Fresh food inflation hit its lowest level since February 2022. Non-food inflation remained stagnant at 1.3%. This is a win for consumers, signalling reduced pressure on household budgets. However, uncertainties remain. BRC CEO Helen Dickinson calls for policymakers' support to adjust business rates based on current inflation rates. Welcome to Retail Savvy Research Consultancy, your go-to for retail, hospitality, travel, and leisure insights! We would love to talk to you. Why don't you drop us a line at info@retail-savvy.com Please visit our website for more details about us and client testimonials at https://lnkd.in/dtd82GQ Or follow us on LinkedIn: https://lnkd.in/etXuWN48 #RetailNews #ConsumerTrends #Inflation #RetailIndustry #RetailSavvy #SavvyInsights

The inflation rate has hit 2% for the first time in nearly three years. But what does that mean for your weekly grocery shop? Prices are now rising more slowly… But you probably won't see a big drop in your food bill right away. While some items like fish, milk, and cheese have gotten cheaper, major price cuts across the board will take time. Want to save money in the meantime? This article suggests: - Sometimes opt for supermarket own brands. - Choose canned, frozen, and dry goods. - Check unit prices and look for sales. - Consider changing supermarkets. While the benefits of lower inflation on food prices will be gradual… These can help you stretch your budget further. Are you feeling the pressure of food costs? https://lnkd.in/eeTZT9JJ

The biggest frustration in the CPI report is restaurant prices. Food away from home rose 5.2% from a year earlier in December—by comparison, prices of food at home rose just 1.3%. Food away from home’s increase is down from March’s multidecade peak of 8.8%, but still faster than any time between 1983 and 2020. Wages for lower-paid occupations like restaurant jobs are growing faster than the U.S. average, creating price pressures that restaurants are passing on in higher prices. https://lnkd.in/daQEfHtq

Yesterday, we released our #GroceryMarketShare update for #Ireland and our expert, Emer Healy, talked to RTE News: Six One about grocery price #inflation and more. Below, you can watch her interview. Read the full story here: https://ow.ly/qAXz50QoI2e

The Consumer Prices Index rose 0.3% in April, slowing after increasing by 0.4% in both February and March. Over the past 12 months, consumer prices have risen 3.4%, edging down from 3.5% year-over-year in March.  At the same time, core consumer prices (which exclude food and energy) also increased 0.3% in April after rising by 0.4% in the prior two months. Core inflation rose 3.6% year-over-year in April, down from 3.8% in both February and March and the slowest pace since April 2021. Overall, these data highlight a mixed picture for consumer inflation. On the positive side, core inflation continues to moderate, albeit not as fast as desired. Indeed, consumer prices continue to remain somewhat elevated, even with progress over the past year. For its part, the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the next two meetings (June 11–12 and July 30–31). With inflation remaining stronger than preferred, the Federal Reserve is likely to wait until there are clearer signs of pricing progress before it starts the process of normalizing rates. This could still occur at the September 17–18 FOMC meeting, but such a move would hinge on whether incoming data reflect sufficient headway on inflation. Indeed, policymakers continue to make it clear that rates will stay “higher for longer” until more progress is made. Menu prices grew 0.3% for the second straight month in April. The Consumer Price Index for Food Away from Home increased 4.1% between April 2023 and April 2024, the slowest year-over-year rate of growth for menu prices since May 2021. Meanwhile, grocery prices declined 0.2% in April after being flat in both February and March. The Consumer Price Index for Food at Home rose 1.1% between April 2023 and April 2024, down from 1.2% year-over-year in March. Overall, grocery price growth has decelerated sharply over the past year, falling from the peak of 13.5% year-over-year in August 2022. For the full National Restaurant Association post, see https://lnkd.in/e8ZNZeex. #CPI #menu #restaurant #grocery #prices #FOMC #interest #rates

We're fortunately (and finally!) starting to see FPI inflation (relating to the cost operators pay for ingredients / produce in the On Premise) come down; dropping below 20% and sitting at its lowest level since August 2022 (at 16.7%). It's worth remembering that this is still almost double the rate that we as consumers are subject to in supermarkets - you think your weekly shop's got more expensive?! 🙄 And so, please don't be a d*ck and bemoan menu price increases when you're out and about. I hope that it can provide even the slightest semblance of respite for operators, who can add a much-needed (albeit small) extra slice to bottom lines in the run up to another Christmas period set to be marred by rail strikes and ongoing Cost-of-Living pressures. 🎄

This is the problem with the media. I just pulled this photo and headline from CNBC. Seems to be indicating that food inflation is continuing to be a problem right? Yet I read the article below it on the same website and pulled this quote: "Services prices increased 0.4% on the month while goods were up 0.1%, reflecting a swing in consumer prices as goods inflation dominated since the early days of the Covid pandemic. Food prices showed a 0.1% decline on the month while energy rose 1.2%. On a 12-month basis, services prices are up 4% while goods have barely moved, increasing just 0.1%. Food is up 1.5% while energy has gained 2.6%." So food prices DECLINED for the month and yet the cover article gets a picture of high food prices. Misleading much? The truth sometimes requires lifting up the hood. Happy Friday!

Food price inflation fell in February to its lowest rate in nearly two years, driven by easing energy and fertiliser costs and fierce competition among retailers to keep prices down. Food prices in February were 5% higher than a year ago, but that marked a drop from January's 6.1%, and the lowest level since May 2022, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) said. Fresh food inflation slowed with price drops for meat, fish and fruit. However, the BRC warned that "significant uncertainties" remain. Food prices dipped 0.1% month-on-month in February, the BRC said, noting drops in certain fresh food items. Non-food inflation remained unchanged at 1.3% in February, with the price of goods such as furniture, electronics and health and beauty products rising but clothing continuing to fall with retailers keeping promotions running. "There was good news for consumers as shop price inflation fell to its lowest rate in nearly two years," Helen Dickinson, chief executive of the BRC, said. "Easing supply chain pressures have begun to feed through to food prices, but significant uncertainties remain as geopolitical tensions rise. "Prices of non-food goods will be more susceptible to shipping costs, which have risen due to the re-routing of imports around the Cape of Good Hope." https://lnkd.in/e8abQiCB

Falling food prices in February! 🥙 Our Shop Price Index, published today, shows food prices fell in February while overall shop price annual inflation eased to 2.5% (from 2.9% in January). 📉 Fierce competition between retailers is driving down food prices for consumers, particularly fresh foods such as meat 🥩, fish 🐟 and fruit. 🍏 Promotions also meant that clothing prices continued to fall. 👚 However, CEO, Helen Dickinson, warned of risks ahead for inflation: “Significant uncertainties remain as geopolitical tensions rise. Prices of non-food goods will be more susceptible to shipping costs, which have risen due to the re-routing of imports around the Cape of Good Hope.” On the 6.7% rise to the business rates multiplier that retailers face: “April’s rates rise should be based on April’s inflation, and the Chancellor should use the Spring Budget to make this correction, supporting business investment and helping to drive down prices for consumers.” To read the SPI in full 👉 https://lnkd.in/e8abQiCB #inflation #foodinflation