Ursa Space Systems’ Post

Synopsis: It is extremely difficult to fight a land war on the Russian /Ukrainian border in winter. For both sides. It has always been so, historically. My projection is inroads will be made by Russia in the summer. Especially along oil, gas and rail lines. With media reporting Ukrainian victories in non essential areas/towns not on oil, gas and rail lines the operation motive is lost. The Belarusian enlistment training by Russia will provide the Variable. And the Russian troop commitment to the oil, gas and transit line routes is vast. Should Ukrainian private sector forces be granted the credit to invest and operate STARTING with areas such as scrap metal. We predict a cessation of conflict sooner, I do not see a annual timeline to forecast beyond that, wait for summer 2024.

... To Win the Fight Requires Fuel “…The Department of Defense is projected to need on the order of one hundred tankers of various sizes in the event of a serious conflict in the Pacific.1 The DoD currently has access it can count on – assured access – to less than ten. Not only does the U.S. lack the tonnage required to support a major conflict in the Pacific, it has no identifiable roadmap to obtain it. Without enough fuel, the most advanced capabilities and ships – even nuclear-powered aircraft carriers – will hardly be available for use. This is a crisis in capability that requires urgent and effective action. There is little time to get a solution in place if speculation that conflict with China could happen this decade proves true. Thankfully, this is a problem that can have a timely and affordable solution. However, the U.S. needs to move past conventional thinking and long-established policies that brought us to this current state….”

https://buff.ly/4auSJA3 In a significant development to enhance defense collaboration, Australia has committed $4.6 billion Australian dollars ($3 billion USD) to the United Kingdom. This financial support is intended to facilitate the construction and advancement of joint defense initiatives between the two countries. #DefenseCooperation #InternationalRelations #Indopacific #AUKUS

To Win the Fight Requires Fuel The US Department of Defense is projected to need on the order of one hundred tankers of various sizes in the event of a serious conflict in the Pacific. The DoD currently has access it can count on – assured access – to less than ten. Not only does the U.S. lack the tonnage required to support a major conflict in the Pacific, it has no identifiable roadmap to obtain it. Without enough fuel, the most advanced capabilities and ships – even nuclear-powered aircraft carriers – will hardly be available for use. This is a crisis in capability that requires urgent and effective action. There is little time to get a solution in place if speculation that conflict with China could happen this decade proves true. Thankfully, this is a problem that can have a timely and affordable solution. However, the U.S. needs to move past conventional thinking and long-established policies that brought us to this current state. https://lnkd.in/evhy2z3W

MARITIME SECURITY BULLETIN AND ADVISORY Re: The Ukrainian Air Force Shot Down a 10th Russian Jet in 12 Days. Issued by: Sanborn Analytics Email: outreach@sanbornanalytics.us Phone: (+1) (617) 539-6114 Media Credit: Radio Free Europe (see link) Subject: Incident in the Black Sea Region – Cautionary Advisory for Maritime Shipping and Naval Forces Date: February 27th, 2024 Dear Maritime Community and Armed Naval Forces, Sanborn Analytics issues this Maritime Security Bulletin and Advisory to inform and caution all vessels operating in the Black Sea region. Our information is sourced from credible channels, including independent media outlets such as Radio Free Europe. Incident Report: On February 27th, 2024, the Ukrainian military reported the downing of a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber jet near the Black Sea region. General Mykola Oleshchuk, the commander of Ukraine's air force, conveyed this information via Telegram. While Russia has not officially commented on Ukraine's claim, Sanborn Analytics has independently confirmed the incident. Cautionary Measures: In light of this development, all maritime vessels are advised to exercise caution and heightened awareness when navigating through the Black Sea region. Sanborn Analytics recommends implementing additional security measures and closely monitoring communications from relevant authorities. Assessment by Sanborn Analytics: Based on our analysis, Sanborn Analytics deems Russia's Navy and Air Force to be currently ineffective. We assert that Russia's Air Force and Navy lack the capability to adequately defend the nation's airspace and maritime domain. This assessment is crucial for maritime operators to factor into their risk assessments and security protocols. Sanborn Analytics emphasizes the importance of remaining vigilant and proactive in ensuring the safety and security of maritime operations in the Black Sea region. We appreciate your attention to this matter and stand ready to provide additional information or support as needed. #maritimesecurity #ukraine #russia #ukrainerussiawar #blacksea #nationalsecurity #homelandsecurity https://lnkd.in/edcNP5CN

NEW: fearing oil prices, the Biden administration has demanded that #Ukraine stop attacking Russian refineries. But our investigation today with Newsweek reveals that many of these plants have supplied invading military units with jet fuel and diesel. But the Biden admin has prioritised the flow of Russian oil above many things, including Ukraine’s sovereignty and national security. This is fossil fuel economics: leaving the US is desperate to protect the oil exports of an adversary, at the expense of an ally under attack. Unfortunately for Ukraine, oil is taking precedence. 🛢 https://lnkd.in/edrBqYdQ

My latest Strategic Analysis Australia post looks at the structural distortion now built into Defence's investment program. 38% investment in maritime capabilities is not normal, either by historical Australian standards or by international standards. That distorted spending is not just the situation for this decade, but future ones as well. So it's not going to lead to a focused force, but a distorted one. If we continue with the planned SSN and frigate programs (without massive Defence spending increases) there simply won't be room to replace other capabilities as they age out or acquire the new ones our strategic circumstance require now and in the future. The new IIP doesn't fix the broken force structure that the Defence Strategic Review identified last year, but instead locks it in for decades to come. https://lnkd.in/gB9_sAH6

Excellent article by Michael Shoebridge on the ludicrousness of the recently released Australian Defence Industrial Development Strategy (DIDS). I follow what is happening in Ukraine daily and see how the Ukraine military is using nimble, flexible and generally low-cost assets (some built in Ukraine) to negate the power of the Russian Black Sea Fleet and Russian air power, as examples. Michael is also spot on about the fact that foreign primes will naturally focus efforts on their own sovereign countries' needs and Australia will have to join the queue if something substantial happens. Not that we need yet another review, but the whole discussion around Australian sovereign capability is rather ridiculous, based on the information in the DIDS. https://lnkd.in/ggC-rZ5U

In a strategic move, Ukrainian forces have utilized drone attacks on Russian oil refineries crucial for fueling military operations. This action aims to curb the logistical capabilities of adversarial forces, as highlighted in a new Global Witness report. The targeted refineries play a significant role in Russian military fuel supplies, showcasing a tactical response in defending national sovereignty and impacting the adversary's resources. The call for a full ban on Russian oil and petroleum products is imperative, emphasizing the need for Biden administration’ shift towards less dependence on oil prices. Stay informed by reading the full report here: https://lnkd.in/ejgrkiJe #DefenseStrategy #EnergyMarkets #Geopolitics #StandWithUkraine #SwitchOffPutin

https://lnkd.in/dBYvGarr Some questions that crossed my mind - Reason for the Visit: While it's been reported as a routine visit to Cuba, is there any recent development in Cuban-Russian relations that might necessitate this deployment? Composition of the Flotilla: The reported presence of a nuclear-powered submarine (Kazan) is a significant detail. Are there strategic reasons for including such a vessel on a seemingly routine visit?