U.S. News & World Report’s Post

The National Interest published my piece debunking some of the pervasive myths about President Trump’s foreign policy. While we can’t predict the future, understanding what actually happened previously will help us more accurately anticipate it. #foreignpolicy

There are a lot of things about this article that bother me. It's full of nice things and seems like full of armchair theories. If US is really serious about climate change, why does US unnecessarily make China its enemy and favor rogue country Japan? Even now, hurricanes are causing great damage in Florida. Why doesn't US buy up Chinese solar panels and steel products and use large-scale offshore solar power plants to reduce the frequency and scale of hurricanes? If they deploy a fleet of mega floats in the areas where hurricanes occur and pass through, the ocean temperature will be lowered and hurricanes will not be as big. Why do they reject Chinese products? If they are cheap, they should be bought up and stockpiled. Why do they favor only corrupt Japanese companies that are full of fraud? Even if Toyota builds a factory in NC, it will only be a small FDI of a few billion dollars. And the auto industry can provide very few jobs. Doesn't US think about how much Japan is making money from yen carry trade by exploiting the interest rate differential between Japan and the US? The current account surplus of 30-50 trillion yen per year is heavily related to yen carry trade. Friendshoring is just a delusion, wet dream, so give up on it. Unless US puts stronger pressure on Bank of Japan to raise interest rates and narrow the interest rate gap between Japan and US, it will never be able to stop Japanese companies and others from making a killing through the yen carry trade. If Fed only lowers interest rates gradually, it will be even more necessary to put strong pressure on Bank of Japan to raise interest rates rapidly. In any case, if the interest rate gap between Japan and US is not eliminated as soon as possible and the yen carry trade loophole is not eliminated as soon as possible, wealth will be concentrated only in Japan, widening the gap between rich and poor around the world, increasing the probability of a black swans, and worsening inflation in US. If US uses China's surplus steel products to build megafloats, US can increase the number of American shipyards. Why doesn't US just buy up all the redundant Chinese steel products? America is pampering Japan too much, which is why Japan is getting cocky and arrogant! https://lnkd.in/gb8_39-T

Japan's $12 billion in assistance to Ukraine is too little. Japan's current account surplus is ¥30-50 trillion level. Japan is too #lukewarm. #Never ever give Japan #UNSC permanent membership. ブリンケンの、頭ごなしにはじめっから中国を敵にしてきめつけるやり方は間違いだろう。 中国はアメリカの外交のやり方次第でいくらでも対応を変えるはずだ。中国が対応を変えない理由は、アメリカの外交が拙劣だからだ。 フロリダに立て続けに二つのハリケーンが災害をもたらしたが、早く洋上太陽光発電をハリケーン発生海域と通過海域に大規模に展開しないと海水温度の上昇を抑制できないぞ。なぜ、中国産ソーラーパネルと鉄鋼を買い占めて大量のメガフロートを造船所に作らせて洋上太陽光発電をメキシコ湾や太平洋に配置することを急がないのか？ 配置しても効果がすぐに現れるわけでないから、なおさら急ぐ必要があるだろう。その間にどれだけハリケーンによる犠牲者や経済的被害がでるとアメリカ政府は考えているのか？頑なに中国産ソーラーパネルを拒絶するならば、なぜ、もっと大規模にT-Bondを発行して自国のソーラーパネルメーカーの生産設備を拡大するように補助金を出さないのか？ 安全保障上の懸念がない中国製品(ソーラーパネル)を拒絶することと、ハリケーンの犠牲者や経済的被害を減らすことと、どちらを優先するのか？Oversecuritizationが度を過ぎていないか？ Blinken's approach of branding China as an enemy from the get-go is a mistake. China will change its response depending on how America handles diplomacy. The reason China does not change its response is because America's diplomacy is poor. Two hurricanes in quick succession have caused disaster in Florida, but unless US quickly deploys large-scale offshore solar power plants in the areas where hurricanes form and pass through, US will not be able to curb the rise in sea temperatures. Why doesn't US hurry up and buy up Chinese solar panels and steel, have shipyards build a large number of mega-floats, and deploy offshore solar power plants in the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean? Even if they are deployed, the effects will not be immediate, so there is an even greater need to hurry. How many casualties and economic damages do the US government think will be caused by hurricanes in the meantime? If they are adamantly refusing Chinese-made solar panels, why don't they issue T-Bonds on a larger scale and provide subsidies to domestic solar panel manufacturers to expand their production facilities? Which should be prioritized: rejecting Chinese products (solar panels) that have no security concerns, or reducing the number of casualties and economic damage caused by hurricanes? Has US' oversecuritization of everything gone too far?

The phrase which begins with " China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have complicated histories and divergent interests, and their partnerships with one another do not come close to the United States’ long-standing alliance architecture. ………" causes a sense of incongruity. Japan's right-wing LDP apparently has divergent interests from other western states': https://lnkd.in/gagSCz7s ; https://lnkd.in/gb8_39-T And, Japan's foreign relationship is mostly transactional, and often entails tradeoffs and risks. Straightforwardly, Japan is rather Russia's side. Japan seems to be Western side, but Japan is actually Trojan Horse. Many Western states don't notice that Japan is Trojan Horse. If Western states need Japan's participation, they must once #scrap Japan's #fascist LDP regime and build new Japan. This is absolutely #essential. The most effective and simplest method to scrap Japan's fascist-insider-trading-addicted LDP is : 1) Reducing differential of central bank's interest rates between US and Japan down to zero, which completely kills yen carry trade that is now worsening the gap between poor countries and rich countries; ( https://lnkd.in/gh9266-y ) 2) Mass buy-up of Japan's yen until the rate goes around 100 yen per a dollar; 3) Short-selling shares of Japanese export industries such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industry, Toyota, Canon, Nippon Steel, etc. until Japan's regulation regulates short-selling; 4) Filing series of lawsuits against Japanese businesses who gave Chinese counterparts know-hows of manufacturing, demanding reparation of trillions of dollars in total. Japan's LDP fascists have many cronies who habitually commit insider trading of Japanese listed businesses. Therefore, these measures effectively clear them. The capital gains should be spent for poor countries all over the world. Justice should be done.

Are you interested in the future of American foreign policy? If so, check out my latest piece …. Rather than taking the conventional approach - and “divining” how the winning candidate might play the game, I consider how the enduring features of international politics (anarchy, egoism, and power) invariably narrow the winning candidate’s choices. This allows me to identify three (and a half) election-proof bets on the next administration’s foreign policy.

https://lnkd.in/gZKXK2Rb "Trump plans to press Congress to gut the Inflation Reduction Act, Biden’s signature climate law that provides tax credits and subsidies for electric vehicles and other clean energy products, criticizing it for being a major tax burden." Gutting IRA necessarily revives inflation, Moron! Trump criticizes Biden for inflation, but the real culprit was Trump: Trump disrupted US-China bilateral relationship due to Japan's sabotage activities that were conducted mainly by Unification Church; " Trump achieved large increases in the U.S. defense budget, having pledged to rebuild the United States’ “depleted military.” He signed a $700 billion budget in fiscal year 2018, the largest in history at the time, and the budget continued to grow under his administration, surpassing $740 billion in fiscal year 2021"; " He implemented broad deregulation across the economy, including in the energy, financial, health, infrastructure, and agricultural sectors. He prioritized loosening oversight of Wall Street, signing a 2018 reform of the Dodd-Frank Act that lessens regulations on smaller banks. After some smaller firms that were no longer subject to Dodd-Frank rules collapsed in early 2023, Trump said he would not bail out failing banks. " Trump's careless deregulation across the economy invited devastating moral hazard among broad spectrum of sectors. And of course, it was one of the major causes of inflation.

My take on what a Vice President JD Vance would mean for US foreign policy in a second Trump term: Not isolationism but reinforcing Trump's Jacksonian instincts. "[O]ne can see that a Trump-Vance foreign policy would be driven not by affection for international norms and institutions as ends unto themselves, but a robust defense of domestic economic interests, especially industrial strength; a hard-nosed approach to China; and alliance and partner relationships built around shared interests. https://lnkd.in/e3PXatQR

Commentary & Analysis: The Biden foreign policy manages to look timid & inept to hard-power realists, courageous but inept to "restrainers," immoral and hypocritical to progressives. Quite an accomplishment. | Responsible Statecraft https://lnkd.in/dnaKvPYH

"If the goal of foreign policy is to help create a peaceful and prosperous world, the foreign policy establishment needs to fundamentally rethink its assumptions. Spending trillions of dollars on endless wars and defense contracts is not going to address the existential threat of climate change or the likelihood of future pandemics. It is not going to feed hungry children, reduce hatred, educate the illiterate, or cure diseases. It is not going to help create a shared global community and diminish the likelihood of war. In this pivotal moment in human history, the United States must lead a new global movement based on human solidarity and the needs of struggling people. This movement must have the courage to take on the greed of the international oligarchy, in which a few thousand billionaires exercise enormous economic and political power."