ICYMI. Martine Zeuthen, Sif Heide-Ottosen, Yahye Abdi & Abdullahi Ahmed Nor & I interviewed former members of al-Shabaab in 2023 to find out more about how & why they left the organization during the early phases of the ongoing state offensive. Our key findings were as follows:
1: Contrary to widespread perceptions, the rate of disengagement from al-Shabaab increased to at least a modest extent during the early stages of the offensive.
2: The offensive itself played a key role in raising the disengagement rate by; (a) increasing the extent to which members were motivated to escape by the fear of being harmed in battle, (b) creating ‘chaos’ (i.e., during attacks and battles) that presented more opportunities to flee, (c) stretching al-Shabaab’s resources and creating openings in their systems designed to prevent desertions, and (d) placing potential defectors in closer proximity to forces to which they could surrender (i.e., as the state increased its territorial control).
3: Clan networks also played a key role in motivating and facilitating defections from al-Shabaab through helping to arrange safe passage with the security forces, providing other important contacts, offering financial support, and so on.
4: Important inhibitors of disengagement remain, including the fear of being punished by al-Shabaab or being mistreated by the Ma’awisley and/or the state security forces, as well as (at least in certain cases) inadequate social connections to facilitate escape.
This research was conducted through The RESOLVE Network with the support of USAID's Africa Bureau.
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Attended King's College London
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