Vanguard Financial Advisor Services’ Post

🚨Feds Meeting Minutes from Wednesday🚨 SUMMARY (8/21/24): 1. Majority of Fed members believe it is appropriate to lower rates at next meeting if data remains constructive 2. Recent data has enhanced confidence over inflation 3. Several participants considered a 25 bps rate cut in July 4. Majority of participants said unemployment risks are rising 5. Outlook for economic growth in second half of 2024 was marked down 6. Easing too late could unduly weaken the economy The first rate cut since 2020 is coming next month.

The US has seen GDP growth blow past predictions. While interest rates have hit the highest level in more than two decades, a situation ordinarily accompanied by higher unemployment and a consumption pullback, it has not been the case this time. What accounts for the surprise?One factor is a series of measures including the $2.2 trillion CARES Act in 2020 and $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan a year later, through which the government approved economic aid for recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The payments were certainly "effective in providing inflationary pressures," said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. Read more in a recent article by AFP: https://ow.ly/SwWl50QIrzB

The August consumer-inflation report is on the horizon, stirring anticipation among investors. Following a favorable jobs report last Friday, all eyes are now on the consumer-price index, the final significant economic data before the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated rate decision next week. Expectations are high for a rate cut this month, marking the first adjustment since March 2020. With July seeing inflation at its lowest point in three years, the outcome of August's figures could potentially sway predictions towards a more substantial rate reduction. #economy #inflation #FederalReserve #ratecut

The US has seen GDP growth blow past predictions. While interest rates have hit the highest level in more than two decades, a situation ordinarily accompanied by higher unemployment and a consumption pullback, it has not been the case this time. What accounts for the surprise?One factor is a series of measures including the $2.2 trillion CARES Act in 2020 and $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan a year later, through which the government approved economic aid for recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The payments were certainly "effective in providing inflationary pressures," said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. Read more in a recent article by AFP: https://ow.ly/AfL950QVILT

Recent data signals a dip in UK GDP and falling inflation. 📉 Understand the dynamics: stocks may decline, while sectors like healthcare may weather the storm. Government bonds offer stability in downturns. Diversification is key – share your thoughts on navigating these economic waves! 💬💡Comment below your thoughts. #FinancialInsights #EconomicOutlook

The Federal Reserve has announced their latest policy decision, with the 2024 median forecast indicating a 4.625% rate and an upgrade to GDP at 2.1% and the unemployent rate down to 4%. However, the inflation outlook has been downgraded to a 2.6% PCE rate. The SEP implies three forecasts this year, while the policy rate will remain between 5.25%-5.5%. Although the status quo policy decision remains, the risk is towards less than three cuts. This is consistent with the @RSMUSLLP policy forecast.

The US has seen GDP growth blow past predictions. While interest rates have hit the highest level in more than two decades, a situation ordinarily accompanied by higher unemployment and a consumption pullback, it has not been the case this time. What accounts for the surprise?One factor is a series of measures including the $2.2 trillion CARES Act in 2020 and $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan a year later, through which the government approved economic aid for recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. The payments were certainly "effective in providing inflationary pressures," said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. Read more in a recent article by AFP: https://ow.ly/jRw050QUwa4

🗽 📉 The U.S. Fed started a rate cutting cycle with a 0.5% reduction. This was more aggressive than the 0.25% cut that we expected, but a welcomed move to support economic growth. 🍁 📉 As inflation concerns continue to lessen, we expect further interest rate reductions in both Canada and the U.S. through the remainder of 2024 and into 2025. #raymondjames #usa #canada #ratecut

Raining $$ 💰 Policymakers are penciling in 100 basis points of easing by year-end. So that suggests two more 25 basis point cuts at the remaining two meetings of the year." Why it makes sense in numbers - - Slower GDP growth (2% vs 2.1%) - Higher unemployment (4.4% vs 4%) - Lower inflation (2.6% vs 2.8%) All signs point to a "cooling economy" #usfed #ratecuts #economy #rogerng

USA 🇺🇸 is unlikely to follow Canada 🇨🇦 and European Union 🇪🇺 path towards rate cut any soon September also seems a 50% probability Inflation being sticky, a lowered employment and GDP growth both are not encouraging rate cut A single focus on inflation will entail a much longer wait for rate cut to begin #jenamusings