VP Bank AG’s Post

📈 Market Alert 📊: The Federal Reserve is anticipated to keep interest rates steady, maintaining a 23-year high. Speculation is rife about when the Fed might initiate a cut. If no changes occur, the key short-term rate will linger between 5.25% and 5.5%, a status maintained since July. Set your alarms for 2:00 p.m. ET today! ⏰ Following the inaugural meeting of the year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to address the public at 2:30 p.m. ET. 🎙️ Powell's insights could unveil the potential for interest rate cuts in 2024, impacting both consumer and business borrowing costs. 🏦💡 #EconomicUpdate #FederalReserve #InterestRateWatch #FinancialInsights

No changes in rates are expected at tomorrow's Federal Reserve meeting. However, Jerome Powell's speech is set to be a focal point 🎯. Current market sentiment for the March 20th meeting is split, with a 50% probability of a rate cut 🔍. For 2024, the market forecasts 5 to 6 cuts, aiming for a Federal Funds rate of 4% by December. This contrasts with the Fed's own projections from December 2023, suggesting a more conservative approach in the easing cycle, aiming for 4.625% by year-end 📈. The disparity highlights the ongoing debate over the monetary policy trajectory amid economic uncertainties. #FedMeeting #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #AChartADay #Banor

As expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged today, though Jerome Powell delivered a slightly more hawkish than anticipated press conference where he poured cold water on a March rate cut. This is in-line with Viewpoint Investment Partners view that the path towards lower interest rates may be bumpier than some are anticipating. Price action in financial markets was interesting, with the sell-off in equities picking up steam, while bond markets took the news in stride. It could be that bond markets are keeping an eye on some early softness in the labour market, as Powell did note that any unexpected labour market weakness could push the Fed to cut sooner and potentially more aggressively. While we don't think a hard landing is the base case, we do think the convexity of new issues makes duration an attractive hedge against a hard landing. #federalreserve #monetarypolicy #interestrates #equities #bonds #investmentmanagement https://lnkd.in/gNSb5JH2

https://lnkd.in/gGKEwjMg Next week's U.S GDP numbers on Thursday the 26th, and the Core PCE Price Index results on Friday the 27th will get plenty of attention. What the Fed and financial institutions would like to see are stable economic numbers which do not spark fears of a recession. The almighty 'soft landing' being pursued by the Federal Reserve is likely being hoped for too by financial institutions via their mid-term outlooks. #Forextrading #Forexmarket #TradewithAMT #AMTinsights #Tradingsignals #Tradingtips #FX

This post by Alpine Macro has received multiple comments. Some agreeing some disagreeing. It remains then a conundrum what will the Fed do next. With over 250 years of combined experience our team is a good bet on assisting yours in figuring this out! 💰💰 —— Reach out to trial our research here https://lnkd.in/dNpYDZaM #uniqiemindonthematket #fed #rates #larrysummers #jeromepowell #macro #useconomy #alpinemacro #macroexperts #jaypowell

Yesterday, #Fed Chair Jay Powell flatly ruled out any rate hike this year, clearing a key risk for the #bondmarket. Nevertheless, it remains unclear under what conditions he will cut #rates. So far, we have had three consecutive months of bad inflation surprises. Will it take three good surprises for Chair Powell to regain his confidence on disinflaiton? This Alpine Macro chart shows that the correlation between the 1-year SOFR rate and 10-year T bond yields suggests that the latter will retest 5%, if no rate cut is priced in for this year by the curve. How likely is it that the Fed holds rates steady this year? Under what condition will policymakers cut more than once? At the other extreme, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has been waving the red flag of additional tightening. What do you think? #bull #Bear #money #Fx #currency #crisis #recession #investment #capitalmarkets #equitymarekt #bonds

Further to the earlier post (below), here’s yet another example (this one from Bloomberg) of the ongoing massive move in what a growing number of market analysts think the Federal Reserve will do. The notion of the Fed starting its cutting cycle with TWO rate reductions of FIFTY bps was unthinkable just a few days ago. It points to three things IMO: An analyst community that was slow to recognize the broad slowing of the US economy; A Fed that is overly data dependent, lacking strategic vision and anchoring; and The weak effectiveness of the central bank’s forward policy guidance. Remember, the Fed’s policy credibility was undermined by it having to hike rates by 75 bps four times in a row. It would be damaged further if it were to start the cutting cycle as indicated below. #economy #markets #FederalReserve

#mortgagerates are down big, finally. #housing #mortgage A big miss in the Employment data has lifted MBS this morning. Against a consensus forecast of 175,000, the economy gained just 114,000 jobs in July, and revisions subtracted 29,000 jobs from the results for prior months. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1%% to 4.3%, well above the consensus for a flat reading, and the highest level since October 2021. The Nasdaq is down 450+ points.

As a result of persistent high interest rates, American investors have increasingly moved holdings to cash-like instruments. Assets in money-market funds rose to $6.12 trillion this month, an all-time high. While many on Wall Street predicted that the Fed would quickly drop rates this year, persistent inflation has forced the central bank to maintain a more restrictive rate policy. High interest rates increase borrowing costs, pressuring rate-sensitive industries like real estate. But they also encourage investors to move to the relative safety of cash, with virtually guaranteed returns of around 5%. This could change if the Fed starts reducing rates later this year. https://lnkd.in/gWSbC99y #economy #interestrates #fed #moneymarket

We sense the Fed quietly focusing on Treasury Bond market stability as a primary concern, while the U.S. government seeks to fund rather large deficits. That is going to require the Fed to ensure the market is supplied with enough liquidity to do the job. If we’re right, then the Fed will be anxious to increase its participation in the bond market by slowing balance sheet runoff and weaken the dollar with rate cuts to reduce the cost of U.S. Treasuries for foreign purchasers. Should Treasury market stability require some regulatory roll-back and a little bit of inflation, then it will just have to be so.  -- This is an excerpt from our recent April newsletter that’s delivered to more than 3,550 inboxes every month. If you’re a credit union professional hoping to stay informed with the knowledge and expertise required to best serve your members, we’d love to include you. (join our newsletter by visiting our site) #creditunion #creditunions #oldenlane #creditunionsrock #CUDifference