The Washington Post’s Post

19 Jun 06:15: CSIS: Crossing Thresholds: Ukrainian 🇺🇦🦸🏼♀️🦸🏻♂️🇺🇦 Resistance to russian 🥷🏻🤥🤡👺 Occupation: Report by Jade McGlynn: Published June 18, 2024 ‘My new in-depth report on Ukrainian Resistance in the territories occupied by Russia is out now. The following report, based on extensive fieldwork conducted by the author in Ukraine (largely in the de-occupied territories) since 2022, provides insights into the importance of the Ukrainian resistance to the Russian occupation, its impact on the sustainability of Russia’s war, the reality of conducting resistance, and the personal stories of some of those involved. This report also provides recommendations and insights into how the resistance can support the Ukrainian war effort, as well as ways for the West to aid the resistance—from boosting morale to providing material assistance. As the involvement of civilian efforts across the West to support Ukraine has been considerable, a number of recommendations are also aimed more generally at interested organizations and individuals who would like to support, morally or otherwise, the Ukrainian resistance against the Russian occupation. Thank you to CSIS for publishing and to Carnegie for funding’: Thank you, Dr Jade 🇬🇧🇺🇦 … and J Scott 🇺🇸🇺🇦:

As long as we are going with WHAT Russia wants - Russia wants Ukraine to quit NOW and to give up Sumy, Kharkiv and Zapo. Russia wants to win as fast as possible with as little domestic unrest as possible. WHO DOESN'T????? That was why they wanted to thunder run their way into Kyiv with too few troops to realistically get it done in Feb 2022. Russia is strained by the war, but less so than Ukraine. My take is that Russia can easily maintain this level of tempo until 2028; and then slow down and be on the defensive easily from 2030 onwards. But really what does it mean to 'WIN' the war as defined by Russia? And what does Ukraine mean by winning?

More than 800,000 people fled from #Russia after last year's invasion of #Ukraine. 🔎 Now that the shock of the war has passed, what has changed in their situation, trajectories, views & attitudes? 📝 Read a report co-authored by EUI researchers Ivetta Sergeeva and Emil Kamalov summarising the first extensive online panel survey of those who left Russia after February 2022. ➡️ https://loom.ly/R6KH45w #EUIResearch

New Post: Russia Prepares For New Phase of War – Against Ukraine and the West - https://lnkd.in/g9Q4v5cd SUBSCRIBER+EXCLUSIVE — The Ukraine war has reached a “pivotal moment,” a “critical stage,” an “inflection point“ – all phrases used to describe the current situation in a conflict that will be decided not only in the trenches of eastern Ukraine, but in Washington as well.  The war is also a turning point for NATO and the West. .memberful-global-teaser-content p:last-child{ -webkit-mask-image: linear-gradient(180deg, #000 0%, transparent); mask-image: linear-gradient(180deg, #000 0%, transparent); } “The Cipher Brief has become the most popular outlet for former intelligence officers; no media outlet is even a close second to The Cipher Brief in terms of the number of articles published by formers.” —Sept. 2018, Studies in Intelligence, Vol. 62 Access all of The Cipher Brief’s national security-focused expert insight by becoming a Cipher Brief Subscriber+ Member. Subscriber+ The post Russia Prepares For New Phase of War – Against Ukraine and the West appeared first on The Cipher Brief. #Russia #Prepares #Phase #War #Ukraine #West

Take a moment and compare where our country was & is . 2019 vs 2023 In 4 years, the Biden/Harris team has taken us from no inflation to -------. A closed border to -------- NATO was starting to pay their fair share -----------. Deaths from Fentanyl were going down to ---------. Peace in Europe to----------. Israel was not in a war----------. Iran was almost broke------- Hope you take the time to PONDER THE ABOVE.

According to him, the war in Ukraine will require years of concerted effort, as Russia undoubtedly can endure living under a wartime economy for at least another 3-4 years. Assessing Russia's ability to transition its economy to a wartime footing, the Alliance official noted that the long-term consequences will be significant and tangible for the Russian economy. However, for now, Russian society is ready for the proposed way of life.

In this column, you may find my remarks on Ukraine's war strategy for this year. The discussion is now largely about whether the war against Russia is winnable. Well, any war is winnable, it just comes easier or harder, while it also depends on price.

🔴 UKRAINIAN WAR ACT TWO The entry of Russian troops into the Kharkiv region opens a new phase in the Ukrainian war, probably decisive. Moscow will try to capitalize as much as possible on its advantages on the battlefield, to tip the tide of the conflict towards a (relatively) rapid and favorable conclusion, so as to be able to close the chapter and look forward. 2024 will therefore be the turning point year for Russia, even if the war is unlikely to end within this year. However, there remain unknowns about what Europe, and to a lesser extent the United States, will do.

I have authored the report on Armenia to be included in the State of the Region Report 2024 of the Centre for Baltic and East European Studies (CBEES) of Södertörn University (Stockholm) on the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine. The online version of the report will be launched on 25 March at: https://lnkd.in/eB4BbuJ6 The report will be launched in an online event to be held from 13:00 to 15:00 CET on 26 March. You can register to follow it at: https://lnkd.in/edmSZuGJ A World Order in Transformation? A Comparative Study of Consequences of the War and Reactions to These Changes in the Region Russia's full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine has, in addition to all the destruction, grief and terror for the people concerned, unravelled the profound instability in what has conventionally been understood as the world order. The annual publication CBEES State of the Region report focuses on Central and Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, the Balkans, and the Baltic Sea region, where we find countries that are closest to the war. This year, 30 scholars have been engaged to analyze how the countries in this region have been affected by the war to form a tentative understanding of the unfolding consequences of the war for the region. https://lnkd.in/eTgKiu9Y

My blog on the two year anniversary of the war in Ukraine.