World Weather Online’s Post

Despite what you might hear, weather prediction is getting better, not worse. We explain how we know and why in our latest article.

The Science Behind Weather Fronts and Their Effects Weather fronts are pivotal in shaping the climate and daily weather we experience. They act as boundaries between different air masses, each with unique temperature, humidity, and density characteristics. Understanding… #WEather >>> Read more

Here is our new study on how ENSO affects Atlantic weather patterns a whole year later which just appeared in Science: https://lnkd.in/e9-HruW5

A nice article about improvements in weather and seasonal forecasting. An additional point around climate change and whether it affects forecasts is that statistical forecasts and traditional knowledge-based forecasts lose some of their skill in a changing climate, whereas numerical modelling techniques (which are about responding to what’s happening rather than basing our predictions on the past) shouldn’t lose their skill.

For all who are following this data. This is a great summary report on the state of global climates. One of the findings: The global-average temperature for the past 12 months (May 2023 – April 2024) is the highest on record, at 0.73°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.61°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. 

1/1: Title: Meteorological Musings: Forecasting the Mood of Kiwi Winters In the poetic landscapes of New Zealand, the transition from the vibrant energy of summer to the serene embrace of winter is not just a change in temperature but a symphony of environmental and atmospheric dynamics. This scientific summary explores the meteorological underpinnings of the seasonal transformation described in the verses, highlighting the intrinsic link between weather forecasts and the emotional cadence of life during Kiwi winter nights. 1. Atmospheric Tranquility Post-Summer: As the Southern Hemisphere tilts away from the sun, New Zealand experiences a marked decrease in solar radiation, leading to cooler temperatures. This reduction initiates a calming of the summer’s volatile weather patterns, transitioning into the gentler, more predictable climatic conditions of winter. The decrease in convective activity, coupled with stable high-pressure systems, contributes to clearer skies and a notable reduction in the intensity and frequency of rainfall, especially in regions away from the Western coasts. 2. Temperature Dynamics and Human Comfort: The cooling temperatures of winter are a significant shift from the sometimes oppressive heat of the Kiwi summer. Meteorological data indicates an average drop in ambient temperatures, moving into a range that many find more comfortable for both physical and emotional well-being. This thermal comfort is conducive to outdoor activities and restorative rest, enhancing the overall quality of life during these months.

The Accuracy of Weather Forecasts are Improving A quick and interesting read on how weather forecasts are improving: https://lnkd.in/dvSEYiRE. Nevertheless, predicting the long term weather patterns is still a challenge. The latest long range ECMWF-forecasts are interchanging between NAO+ («wet» Nordics) and Scandinavian blocking («dry» Nordics). The illustration shows the latest eight days of developments in extended forecasts. Quite spectacular! A reason for struggling forecasts might be the weak polar vortex following the recent major SSW. Here’s an interesting study about the uncertainty of long range forecasts and the state of the polar vortex: https://lnkd.in/dmT2i7xq

It has become evident that our world is facing unprecedented challenges due to extreme weather conditions. According to a survey in the World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report 2024, respondents believe extreme weather events pose the #1 threat over the next ten years. From winter tornado threats to flooding and power outages, the impact on individuals, communities, businesses, and the economy at large already in 2024 has been profound. This year, Spire was awarded a $9.4 million contract by NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration to provide satellite weather data that will enhance the accuracy of global weather forecasts, a critical step in our collective effort to better prepare for and mitigate the increasing impacts of extreme weather worldwide. As we continue on this journey, I invite you to join us in creating a more resilient future. What are your thoughts on how technology can contribute to weather preparedness and a more resilient future? Share your ideas, and let's build a dialogue on how we can collectively tackle the challenges posed by extreme weather events together. Read more on the report here: https://lnkd.in/dHuZcFSp

The Science Behind Weather Fronts and Their Effects Weather fronts are pivotal in shaping the climate and daily weather we experience. They act as boundaries between different air masses, each with unique temperature, humidity, and density characteristics. Understanding these fronts is key to deciphering weather patterns and predicting changes in weather co... [...] #WEather Read more... https://lnkd.in/d2GackNi

"America to Sizzle" It is so important that we communicate accurately on climate issues - there is no room to get this wrong! Fargo, ND, which is in the middle of the area of greatest temperature anomaly per this map, is predicted to have high temperatures in the mid 30s-low 40s, Fahrenheit. Things aren't going to 'sizzle' at those temps. Is this temperature concerning? Sure! If it is a 30+ degree anomaly, then we've got problems on a grander scale. For the people in Fargo? Some might welcome the "warmer than freezing" break from the deep chill of winter. But the red colors of this map, and the term 'sizzle', suggest something that is just not true, and when you realize we are talking temps lower than we keep our refrigerators, it sets the larger discussion off its rails. #riskcommunication