March 21 (Reuters) - Gold prices climbed to a record high on Thursday as the U.S. dollar and bond yields ticked lower after the Federal Reserve maintained its projection of three rate cuts for this year. Spot gold XAU= was up 1% at $2,208.30 per ounce, as of 0725 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,222.39 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 jumped 2.3% to $2,211. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies. The Fed held interest rates steady on Wednesday, but policymakers indicated they still expected to cut them by three quarters of a percentage point by end-2024. Fed Chair Powell said recent high inflation rate readings had not changed the underlying "story" of slowly easing U.S. price pressures. "It's the goldilocks scenario for gold prices, where marginally higher inflation expectations meet lower nominal rates to create decreased real yields," said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com. "A dovish Fed, a little squeeze on existing shorts, and a touch of momentum chasing have boosted bullishness in the gold market." Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in a 75% probability that the central bank will begin cutting rates in June, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. "With Powell keeping three potential rate cuts in play this year, bond yields and the USD dipped, which opened a pathway higher for the gold price," Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, said in a note. The dollar =USD slipped to a one-week low against rivals, while benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR also dipped.
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Nov 21 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and Treasury yields as investors look forward to minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting for more guidance on its interest rate outlook. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.7% at $1,991.69 per ounce, as of 0437 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 gained 0.6% to $1,993.50. "The dollar and the U.S. bond yields continue to come down. Demand from central banks is also quite strong. All these are bullish for gold. The market is reconsidering that drop we saw yesterday," said Edward Meir, a metals analyst who provides research for Marex. The dollar =USD fell to more than a 2-1/2-month low as investors expect U.S. interest rates to fall next year. A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for other currency holders. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR hovered near two-month lows touched last week. Minutes from the Fed's latest meeting are due at 1900 GMT. Signs of slowing inflation in the United States have boosted expectations that the U.S. central bank was done raising interest rates. Markets are widely expecting the Fed to leave rates unchanged in the December meeting and currently pricing in a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut of at least 25 basis points by May, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. "I think the minutes will be a non-event ... There was not going to be any mention of cuts, Jerome Powell made that very clear in his news conference. It's just the market that's expecting cuts from the Fed," Meir said. Inflation is likely to remain "stubborn" and force the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer than investors anticipate, Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin said.
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Jan 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices ticked up on Wednesday, helped by a pullback in the dollar, while investors awaited minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting and U.S. jobs data for more clarity on the interest rate outlook. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.3% at $2,064.55 per ounce, as of 0454 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 were flat at $2,073. The dollar =USD slipped 0.2% against its rivals, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. "Gold is in consolidation mode at the moment, really building on those 2023 gains with potentially more to come should the current expectations for a dovish Fed in 2024 hold," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst, KCM Trade. Traders have doubled down on bets for rate cuts in 2024, encouraged by slowing inflation and the Fed's dovish tilt at its December policy meeting. Those expectations helped gold post a 13% jump in 2023, its first annual gain since 2020, as lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Focus now shifts to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's December policy meeting, due at 1900 GMT. Futures markets see a 70% chance of a 25 basis points rate cut at the March 20 meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Investors are also keenly awaiting a slew of U.S. economic data this week, including non-farm payrolls report on Friday. "There is certainly a chance we could see gold going to $2,100 per ounce in the near term, if we don't getting up stream of upside surprises in the macro gauges," Waterer said. Investors are also keeping a close watch on tensions in the Middle East after Israel killed Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in a drone strike in Lebanon's capital Beirut on Tuesday.
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March 1 (Reuters) - Gold prices hit a one-month high on Friday and were set for a second straight week of gains as the latest U.S. data pointed to signs of slowing inflation, bolstering investor expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June. Spot gold XAU= edged 0.5% higher to $2,053.10 per ounce, as of 1226 GMT, its highest level since Feb. 2. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 firmed 0.4% at $2,063. "Inflation figures came out pretty much as expected and probably we are going to have the first rate cut very soon," Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah said. Data on Thursday showed PCE inflation in January rose 2.4%, the smallest annual increase since February 2021, after a 2.6% advance in December. Receding inflationary pressures have helped the U.S. central bank to set the table for rate cuts likely later this year, potentially boosting demand for the non-yielding bullion. "The Fed rate cuts have to be relatively deep, whereby it's no longer interesting to hold bonds and invest into ETFs instead. I think there's still some space before we see a strong pickup in gold holdings," Dahdah said. The world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust's GLD holdings HLDSPDRGT=XAU, fell 3.3% in February and is down 6.4% so far this year. Investors will closely watch for remarks from at least six Fed policymakers due later on Friday. On the physical front, gold demand in India was subdued for the week as an uptick in domestic prices dented sentiment and prompted buyers to delay purchases.
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Dec 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose in muted trade on Tuesday as the dollar and bond yields weakened on the increasing likelihood of rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as March next year. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.6% at $2,064.20 an ounce at 0802 GMT after hitting a more than two-week high of $2,070.39 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 rose 0.3% to $2,075.20. "Gold prices have resumed their upside into the new week after receiving the go-ahead from softer than expected U.S. personal consumption expenditure data last Friday, which validates the dovish rate expectations priced by markets," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. As long as the trend in economic data remains, gold prices could break above the $2,080 level, he said. Data on Friday showed that U.S. prices fell in November for the first time in more than three and a half years, further slowing inflation and increasing the likelihood of cuts to interest rates. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Traders are now pricing in an 89% chance of a rate cut by the U.S. central bank in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The dollar index .DXY fell 0.1% while the benchmark U.S. 10-year bond yield US10YT=RR edged lower. A weaker U.S. currency makes dollar-priced gold more attractive for those holding other currencies. Meanwhile, the U.S. military carried out retaliatory air strikes in Iraq on Monday after a one-way drone attack by Iran-aligned militants left three U.S. troops wounded. Gold is seen as a safe-haven asset during times of geopolitical uncertainty. Markets in Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong and the Euro Zone are closed on Tuesday for public holidays.
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Gold Holds Near $2,450 as Focus Shifts to US Data - August 1st, 2024 Gold reached a two-week high near $2,460 but has since retreated to the $2,450 area. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield's stability above 4% prevents XAU/USD from gathering bullish momentum. Latest XAU/USD News: Gold price drops as US Dollar rises ahead of US NFP. Gold consolidates around $2,450 amid a risk-on mood. India Gold price today: Gold steadies. XAU/USD Technical Overview: XAU/USD: 2451.65 Gold trades in a slightly rising channel on the daily timeframe, showing sideways performance for over three months. The 50-day EMA near $2,370 supports Gold price bulls. The 14-day RSI moves higher to near 60.00, indicating potential upside momentum. A break above $2,483.75 would push Gold into uncharted territory. The upward-sloping trendline at $2,225, from the October 6 low, provides long-term support. Fundamental Overview: Gold prices edge lower after reaching $2,458.50, as the US Dollar rebounds. The DXY index recovers to 104.20, reducing Gold's appeal. Expectations for the Fed to reduce interest rates in September have grown after dovish guidance, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggesting potential rate cuts if inflation and economic conditions remain stable.
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June 13th, 2024 Gold prices saw a slight decline on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve projected only one interest rate reduction for this year, disappointing investors who hoped for two cuts. Despite this, a cooler-than-expected inflation report moderated the decline. Spot gold decreased by 0.2% to $2,317.38 per ounce, as of 1053 GMT, while U.S. gold futures dropped 0.9% to $2,333.10. According to Carlo Alberto De Casa, a market analyst at Kinesis Money, "The market is still digesting a quite intense Wednesday, with U.S. inflation data providing support for gold, while the Fed's hawkish stance kept prices in check." The Fed held rates steady and forecasted only one rate cut in 2024, despite some progress in inflation. Growth and unemployment levels remain better than what the U.S. central bank considers sustainable in the long run. Inflation data indicated the consumer price index was surprisingly flat in May, sending gold prices up by as much as 1% before settling to a 0.3% increase by the end of Wednesday. The Fed is expected to hold off on any action until there is a more convincing decline in price pressures or a significant rise in the unemployment rate. Last week, gold prices saw their biggest sell-off since November 2020, driven by a strong U.S. jobs report and China's central bank pausing its gold purchases. "Despite this, gold remains above $2,300/Oz, suggesting that investors are still viewing corrections and dips as opportunities to bolster their gold holdings," De Casa noted. Gold's surge to successive record highs is likely to continue in the latter half of 2024, with the fundamental case for bullion remaining robust, though $3,000 per ounce appears slightly out of reach, as per traders and industry experts. Additionally, spot silver dropped 1.4% to $29.28 per ounce, platinum fell 1.6% to $948.25, and palladium decreased 1.3% to $894.97.
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Gold prices steady above $2,000 after volatile record highs. Gold prices rose slightly in Asian trade on Tuesday, steadying after racing to record highs earlier in the week as persistent expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve and increased safe haven demand supported the yellow metal. The yellow metal saw an abnormally large jump in early trade on Monday, with spot prices briefly hitting a lifetime high of $2,148.78 an ounce before tumbling sharply from the peak. A mix of factors drove the surge, with the most prominent being somewhat less hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which ramped up expectations for early interest rate cuts by the central bank. Safe haven demand for the yellow metal rose after an attack on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea pushed up concerns over a broader conflict in the Middle East. A separate, unrelated attack on a prominent gold mine in Peru also pushed up some fears of supply disruptions in gold markets. But while gold came off sharply from its record peaks, it still settled well above the coveted $2,000 an ounce level, indicating that more gains could still be on tap. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,032.60 an ounce, while gold futures expiring February rose 0.4% to $2,050.35 an ounce by 00:19 ET (05:19 GMT). Markets reassess rate cut bets before nonfarm payrolls data Anticipation of key U.S. nonfarm payrolls data this Friday saw markets somewhat taper recent optimism over early interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Fed Fund futures prices showed traders now pricing in a 49% chance the central bank will trim rates by as soon as March 2024, down substantially from the 60% chance seen at the beginning of the week. This uncertainty also helped the dollar rebound further from recent lows, which in turn diminished gold’s recent gains. Still, the yellow metal is expected to remain largely well-bid, as markets remained convinced that the Fed was done raising interest rates in this cycle. Rising interest rates push up the opportunity cost of investing in bullion- a trade that had battered the yellow metal earlier this year. Gold was also sitting on strong gains through November.
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