10 Senior Care Predictions in 2024

As we kick off the new year in the senior care industry, the road ahead is both exciting and daunting, with many of the tailwinds we experienced over the past few years continuing in the year ahead. But there also some bright spots and breakthroughs which promise to ease the burden of many of our challenges. Here's a look ahead at what 2024 holds in store in Senior Care..

1. Medicare Advantage Growth and Scrutiny: In August of 2023 the OIG released a strategic plan to align its efforts to investigate inadequacies in managed care programs, notably Medicare Advantage programs. Their goal is to promote access to care for people enrolled in these plans and assess inappropriate denials and barriers to approvals, including skilled nursing facility care, and continued coverage/easing of denials for continued stay coverage in post-acute care. Critical as the list of states in the country with 50% or more of the population enrolled in these plans grows.
2. Healthcare Staffing Pressure: The need to recruit new, and to recruit "back" talent in healthcare will continue. According to a recent Mckinsey and Company research study, healthcare has hit a high in the number of resignations to 600,000 per month as of May 2023. But it is not only people retiring, new evidence suggests first and second year nurses and other professionals show an increase in resignations as well. Look for senior care providers to continue creative ways to attract talent including offering increased wages, housing, career ladders and foreign recruitment initiatives to name a few. Expect the debate on a national level to also continue regarding mandated staffing levels in SNF's AND acute care...
3. Infection Prevention in ALF's and SNF's: Look for continued scrutiny and pressure from state survey teams and federal regulators related to infection control and surveys, including enhanced reporting requirements, more IP focused surveys and educational/training requirements will continue well in to 2024 and beyond. The focus is not only COVID related...RSV, Flu and other "super bugs" are also on the radar screen from regulatory entities. The best way to stay informed is to be aware of state and federal updates related to requirements and resources so that your ALF or SNF center stays prepared. Also, tapping into the free resources available for staff education and development should be a focus for everyone to stay ahead of the curve.
4. More SNF closures: 2023 unfortunately saw some high profile SNF closures throughout the country. With the increasing expense pressure, low Medicaid reimbursement, and perpetual turnover in ownership of SNF's in many parts of the country, look for more closures and calls for more transparency regarding the financial metrics driving these closures, which seem to occur out of nowhere and displace vulnerable and fragile residents causing unnecessary trauma and hardship.
5. Medicaid Funding Advocacy: Many states across the country including Texas, Pennsylvania, Washington and Oregon saw double digit Medicaid reimbursement increases. But the increases weren't enough. Look for more legislation, lobbying and advocacy in 2024 and beyond focusing on saving America's nursing homes through increased Medicaid funding as the SNF industry's lobbying entity, the AHCA, continues to become more visible and powerful in post COVID era.
6. Investment in Culture: Savvy providers in post-acute care and senior living will invest more in culture in 2024 as a differentiator. The "new marketing" in senior care is branding to existing and potential employees in addition to consumers, caregivers and referral sources. With occupancy being "capped" at many SNF providers due to staffing, employers are realizing that retention and recruitment are critical to their success, and defining what makes their culture unique can be a game changer in why employees choose one provider over another. Things like a well-developed DEI program, employee recognition program, profit sharing, childcare and transportation support, retention bonuses, flexible scheduling, etc. are some of the creative initiatives being pursued to help curb turnover and drive employee longevity.
7. Refined Technology, Virtual Care: Providers have become savvy at scrutinizing tech products that promise help with staffing, reducing readmissions and improving occupancy and reimbursement. Expect success and growth with tech products which aim to be more user friendly for staff and are "low maintenance/low touch" for already overtaxed staff. Autonomous technology and AI will emerge in 2024 as providers seek solutions to improving care in an environment that is cost restrictive and labor challenged.
8. Increased Use of Advance Practitioners: With the huge demand around the country for primary care, expect the rise of advanced practitioners to continue in the senior living and post-acute care environment. It simply will become increasingly difficult to attract physicians to the senior care environment. To be competitive, providers must make their operations user friendly and welcoming to these vital APN and PA consultants who ideally should be "embedded" into your operations and collaborate on systems and protocols that are inclusive of your clinical staff to achieve the best outcomes. With the rising acuity and staffing demands in post-acute care and assisted living, these partnerships are essential to quality success and all providers should take inventory of who they are working with, improving these relationships, and adding more where necessary.
9. Senior Wellness and Prevention: On a macro level, look for more attention and funding related to improving the health of baby boomers to arrest and stop chronic diseases altogether. This is best illustrated by the semaglutide pharmaceuticals showing dramatic weight loss and BMI improvements, but wellness and prevention will also manifest in Medicare and other insurers evaluating reimbursement for more preventative and wellness-oriented lifestyle programs (nutritional, exercise related, screenings, etc.) and services aimed at reducing the numbers of Americans living with chronic illnesses.
10. Other Insights: 2023 was a breakthrough in Alzheimer's and Dementia care with the first drug fully approved by the FDA to treat Alzheimer's, Legembi..additionally there are 187 clinical trials in the Alzheimer's drug pipeline, the most ever on record aimed at providing support to the 6 million Americans and growing who are living with this disease. Anticipate also more affordable senior living options and communities to be developed in 2024, as vacant retail and other commercial properties seek repurposing and the largest portion of the baby boom population seek living options more in line with their price point - there are over 30 communities considered affordable in the development pipeline throughout the US currently, and that number will grow. Finally, In-Home care will continue to grow in utilization and preference in 2024. High acuity skilled home care, companion care, palliative and hospice care, etc. will continue to rise as more consumers express a desire to receive care in the home. The rise in demand though is in lock step with the demand for labor and the decrease in family caregivers available to provide care in the home, the sectors 2 biggest challenges.

Whatever 2024 holds, the senior care landscape promises to be an evolving and exciting one, and hopefully will include much progress in tackling the several issues and challenges as we approach 2030, when for the first time in America, over 20% of our population will be over the age of 65. 6 short years away! Are you ready?