20 for 2020: Twenty Infectious Diseases That Will Make News in the 2020s Decade

David Bruce Conn, B.S., M.S., Ph.D.

Each year in my One Health Science and Great Neglected Diseases classes, I make predictions to my university students as to particular diseases, pathogens, or disease/pathogen groups that I think will make the headlines during the coming year. This January, I started my winter classes by proposing 20 diseases and disease groups that I predict will emerge on the scene in ways that pose unusual threats to public health. Some of these, like measles and dengue, were already headline makers from recent years, but show the potential for continuing or repeated outbreaks. Some, like malaria, are ancient scourges that seem to keep rising to challenge us in new ways. Others, like coronaviruses (in particular the new COVID-19), have already made a major impact over the last six weeks since I predicted them to be emerging threats. Still others, like melioidosis and filarial worms, are always around but have not reached the levels of public awareness that I think they warrant, and which I think they will earn in the next few years. Some are specific single diseases, while some are groupings that are related in some way, either clinically or epidemiologically. For all 20, my study of patterns in epidemiology, adaptation, demographics, and other areas have led me to choose them. They are viruses, bacteria, protists, and helminths. They are waterborne, vector-borne, food-borne, respiratory, and others. They have different biological and clinical characteristics. We share some with other animals. But all are highly capable of causing severe human illness across broad geographic ranges. Of course, there will be others -- some of them completely unanticipated. But my bets are on for these 20 to be certain causes for special vigilance.

So today, 02-20-2020, the twentieth of February 2020, I am publishing the list alone, without any details or further explanation. Some on the list may be surprising to many people, and certainly some will be controversial among public health professionals. Over the coming months, I will publish individual articles on each of the 20, with further details about the diseases, their current status as public health threats, and other aspects that make them worthy of our keen interest -- and our preparation to respond.

So, check back later for more about these old, new, emerging, and re-emerging threats.

Prof. Dr. David Bruce Conn is a biomedical scientist who has conducted research, taught university students, and advised governments and industries about parasitic and other infectious diseases, invasive species, and environmental health for more than 40 years. (Disclaimer: Dr. Conn is a senior adviser to the U.S. Department of State on issues of health and foreign policy, but the contents of this post are his own views and do not officially represent any unit of the U.S. federal government).

Copyright © 2020 by David Bruce Conn. Free use and distribution permitted with attribution.