Can Streaming Music Services Create a Bigger Recorded Music Industry?

With the news from Billboard that investors put $2.3 billion dollars into music services in 2013 it is worth noting that on demand streaming audio and video services, music discovery, music creation and internet radio companies received the most of those dollars in the aggregate. Given the way young people want to access their music these days (I have written before about the concept of a societal shift to a "renting not owning" preference) I would say the money is well invested as the future of the recorded music industry is in flux; the opportunity to grow the recorded music market is within plain sight.

At MIDEM this year, in his Keynote speech Marc Geiger, WME's global head of music had this to say:

“If you still think [the future] is about owning files I will talk to you again in 24 months and you will deny that you ever said it to me,” Geiger stated during a slick 25-minute presentation, which was entitled “20 Years of Pain. No More Fooling Around: The Definitive Future of the Music Business.”

He also believes that the recorded music industry can grow to a $100 billion-plus business within the next 15 years as long as it abandons pushing music ownership and fully embraces the streaming subscription model. [Source]

I love Mr. Geiger's optimism as optimism in the recorded music business has been sorely lacking for a couple of decades. The $100 billion number was somewhat hyperbolic and clearly used to draw attention, yet I believe it is not so far-fetched - if we pull in the date range to ten years I could see the United States recorded music business alone being worth $25 -$30 billion - if its executives fully embrace streaming music services.

Why do I think that? Well, it's a matter of growth and scale over time; it won't happen overnight.

There has been this mindset that there was some 'golden age' when the American music audience was spending a lot of money on recorded music. That's not entirely true on a national scale. For instance, in the 90's there were outliers we can call hardcore music fans who bought a lot of CDs, but at its peak in 2000 the average consumer spent $70 a year on CDs; an $18 billion a year business. By 2009 the business had shrunk to $8 billion including digital sales. [Source] The IFPI reports that last year in the USA music sales including digital sales were $4.8 billion.

There is also the demographic factor to take into account. We already have generations of young people who have never bought a CD; they access music on their mobile devices. This will continue to be the predominant method for them and the generations of young people coming up behind them. The breadth of the demographic is growing too as more and more baby boomers discover the convenience of the streaming music services. And there's another factor - with millions of songs easily available on mobile devices we are seeing a drop in music piracy.

And let's not forget FM/AM radio. 63% of people say they discover new music via terrestrial radio. In 2012, 92% of Americans age 12 or older listened to the radio at least weekly, essentially the same as it was a decade earlier (94%). [Source] And of course listening to the radio is essentially free. 75% of the USA population over age 12 is 281.4 million. Once a majority of those music fans discover the ease-of-use of the streaming music services versus listening passively to pre-programmed radio stations, there will be another societal shift. Then, if just one third of that audience signed up to pay a monthly subscription of $9.99 for only one of the streaming music services available in the USA, the gross revenue would be around $1 billion a year.

Of course this is a very non-scientific method for getting to a number that's close to $1 billion a year. Growth and scale for these streaming music services will also be achieved by opening up their services globally - Spotify is available in 55 markets. To me a $100 billion recorded music market in a decade appears to not be outside the realm of possibility - but only if recorded music executives have the vision and embrace the opportunity.

Meanwhile Billboard reported yesterday that "for the third time this year — and only the fourth time ever -- the year-to-date total sales of digital albums have exceeded those of CDs."

As George Orwell wrote – “To see what is in front of one’s nose needs a constant struggle.”

Whatever has been happening to music has been in front of our noses for the last two decades. The title of Marc Geiger's talk included this: "20 years of pain. No more fooling around."

Let's focus on what's in front of our noses.

Image: Mine