2019 Fin & Tech Predictions

This is my clutch of predictions (not intended as investment advice) for fin and tech in 2019. The 2018 set panned out reasonably, with the possible exception of Apple selling 6 iPhones per second.

So in no particular order here’s my (perhaps playful) 2019 prediction set.

1. The date for the singularity will get pushed back by two years – big tech projects rarely complete on time.
2. In a tri-polar world, financial regulation (or lack of it) across China, the US and Europe will provide challenges and opportunities for global fintech expansionists.
3. While I get ecom transactions bounced on my regular credit card on a regular computer and Netflix reminds me to watch films I’ve already seen, I figure we’ve still got a way to go in applied AI. This will get better in 2019 (I hope).
4. Blockchain will continue to be an unfulfilled promise in 2019. Not surprisingly, Bitcoin didn’t really do well in 2018 – and it’s not likely to get any better in 2019. The Project Syndicate article here doesn't pull any punches calling it "a ruse to separate retail investors from their hard-earned real money" – The professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business could be right.
5. PSD2 struggled to get into the statute books in 2018 (it’s not yet over the line in The Netherlands). We’ll see some movement on open banking in 2019, but only for early adopters. Wait for 2020 for real consumer impact. PSD2 may also offer some interesting and unintended side effects for EU incumbents.
6. The tech innovation curve will continue to go at hockey-stick-almost-vertical velocity. Public Cloud will remain pubescent, but full of promise.
7. Unemployment rates for skilled cyber security specialists will remain at zero. Business will boom for both the good guys and the bad guys. 
8. Payments: more consolidation? Certainly. Probably not another IPO given the overall market climate. 
9. Alibaba will sell more than $25 billion on singles day and over $1.5 billion in the first 5 minutes. Despite the slowdown in Chinese retail growth, China will own 40% of the worldwide ecommerce market.
10. Apple will release an iPad with an attached keyboard, a mouse and an alternative to the iOS tile interface (OK…I’m out on a limb here.)
11. McKinsey will continue to follow fintech and write articles like this one on the future of the industry.

“You can’t connect the dots looking forward; you can only connect them looking backwards” - Steve Jobs.

Have a great 2019!