2023 Holiday Shopping: Black Friday & Cyber Monday Insights and Christmas Sales Forecasts

Key Takeaways:

• Holiday spending stable at an average of $321.41 per shopper.
• Online shopping shifted upward & reached a record 134.2 million people & Cyber Monday sales hitting $12.4 billion.
• Holiday sales forecasted to grow by 3-4%, aligning with pre-pandemic trends.

Bluestock Advisors presents an analysis of the 2023 holiday retail landscape, starting with consumer spending trends observed during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

While the National Retail Foundation did not provide an estimate for total spending, they reported that shoppers spent an average of $321.41 on holiday-related purchases over the weekend. This figure closely mirrors last year's average of $325.44, with no adjustment made for inflation.

During a call with reporters, NRF CEO Matt Shay attributed the impressive turnout to consumer sentiment, enticing deals offered by retailers, and cooler temperatures driving seasonal purchases.

Record Online Shopping – An Omnichannel Event

The shift towards online shopping continued to gain momentum, with 134.2 million people shopping online during this year's holiday weekend, compared to 130.2 million a year ago. On the brick and mortar side, the number of in-store shoppers fell slightly from 122.7 million people in 2022 to 121.4 million this year.

Black Friday online sales in the U.S. reached $9.8 billion, up 7.5% from the previous year, according to Adobe. Cyber Monday surpassed that figure, with e-commerce spending totaling $12.4 billion, marking a 9.6% year-over-year increase.

Early Shopping Trends

As of Thanksgiving weekend, consumers reported that they were approximately halfway done with their holiday shopping, according to NRF's survey of 3,498 adult consumers conducted from November 22 to 26.  The top gifts purchased were clothing, accessories and toys, with personal care and beauty items also made their debut in the top five most popular gifts, reflecting evolving consumer preferences.

Holiday Sales Expectations

While the early holiday shopping season has shown strength, it is too soon to predict how the rest of the peak retail season may unfold. Retailers have expressed caution about the season's outlook, citing some ongoing challenges in discretionary spending, even though it has picked up during promotional events. Holiday sales in November and December are anticipated to rise by 3% to 4% year over year, reaching between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion, according to the NRF. This growth rate, although slower compared to the pandemic-era boom, aligns with average sales increases before COVID-19.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday in 2023 have set a high bar for the holiday shopping season, with record-breaking turnout and robust online sales. As we move forward, retailers will continue to navigate uncertainties while shoppers can expect more deals and promotions as they complete their holiday shopping lists.