The 2024 US Presidential Election: Thirteen Keys, Seven Cities, and a Nightmare Scenario

(maps courtesy of 270towin.com)

The 2024 election in the United States is now under 90 days away and the onslaught of political mailers, TV ads, and social media posts are now underway. The entire house of representatives is up for grabs, a third of the senate is up, and the presidency is at stake. This article is going to focus on the presidency and some of the determining factors and scenarios.

Winning a presidential election in 2024 is not as wide open as it once was. There was a time that many states within the country were considered swing states, or at least “states in play”. Some of those states included Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado. They would join current swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Many of those states would generally lean toward one party or another, but would at least be close enough that they could be considered to be “In Play”. As we enter the 2024 election, most analysts suggest there are really only six states actually in play: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada (Republicans may try to stretch for Virginia to make 7 and Democrats may stretch for North Carolina to make 8, but polling consistently says probably not). Let’s stick a pin in this for now and come back to it later.

Allan Lichtman is a name that is brought up every four years then is quickly forgotten after each presidential election. That is because he is an American historian that has made his name for creating the “13 Keys” for predicting the next president of the United States. He has successfully predicted nine out of the last ten presidential elections (he will contest that he is ten for ten as he still stringently believes that Al Gore won the 2000 election and had the election stolen from him). Lichtman’s formula states that the White House or the incumbent party must retain eight of the thirteen keys to retain the White House, thus they can only lose five keys and still win. Here are the 13 Keys which are true or false questions:

(per American University, Washington DC; american.edu)

1.      Party Mandate: The incumbent party held more house congressional seats after the midterm elections than before.

2.      Contest: The nominee was not seriously contested for the nomination.

3.      Incumbency: The candidate the sitting president.

4.      Third Party: There is no serious third party or independent campaign.

5.      Short Term Economy: The economy is not in recession during the campaign.

6.      Long Term Economy: Real per capita economic growth the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7.      Policy Change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy

8.      Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9.      Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10.  Foreign/Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11.  Foreign/Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12.  Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13.  Challenger Charisma: The challenger party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero

To this point, Lichtman believes that three keys have fully turned against Vice President Harris

1.      Party Mandate

2.      Incumbency

3.      Incumbent Charisma

He also believes that two keys are on shaky ground:

4.      Foreign Failure

5.      Social Unrest

The article where he cited these keys had him interviewed prior to the start of the economic downturn and Wall Street sell off. According to lead economists and historical projections based on the August 2nd, 2024 unemployment numbers, the “Sahm Rule” was triggered, which many believe indicate that the economy is now in or is imminently entering a recession. This would then suggest that a sixth key is now in danger of turning against Vice President Harris:

6.      Short Term Economy

Some have debated Lichtman about Robert Kennedy as a third party candidate as he has been polling between 5%-8% in most polls. Lichtman’s argument is that Kennedy needs to be polling at 10% or above to be considered a third party threat. Other arguments for third party then introduce Jill Stein and Cornell West who are each polling at 1%. All three candidates are believed to be mostly pulling support away from Harris and polling at or near 10% combined. It still does not appear that this persuades Lichtman as it is likely due to the fact that the candidates are not consistently combined at 10% and the candidates are not on every state's ballot.

There has also been debate about whether the current administration has any foreign or military success that they can point to as part of the 13 keys. Lichtman does not turn this key against the administration, but has also not been able to widely produce a foreign or military success either, leaving some people questioning whether this key should be turned or not. With that said, Lichtman stands firm that this key is not turned.

Lichtman has not made an official prediction yet, but he has been leaning toward a prediction for Vice President Harris as the winner, but more keys are starting to turn away from her. If the last three keys fully turn, then his prediction, based on his model would swing in favor of former president Trump. If those three keys stabilize, his likely pick will remain with Vice President Harris.

Based simply on the 13 keys, we can see how incredibly close the election is and how the next 90 days play out with those last three keys. Now, let’s return to the swing states and how they impact the election. So, the article title references the 13 keys, but it says 7 cities. There are only six swing states, so where am I going with this? Let me take you on an electoral journey that will surely give you a headache!

Below is the projected map going into election day. Barring a surprise in North Carolina or Virginia…this is the map everyone expects to see late into the evening.

The likelihood is that in all six states, former president Trump will be carrying a relatively decent lead with six cities (and their nearby suburbs) left to count votes: Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Phoenix, and Las Vegas. There is one tan spot in the middle of the country you may be wondering about. That is Omaha…I will come back to that. In the 2016 election, Donald Trump carried the lead late into the evening in each of those states except for Nevada. He won five of the six to capture the presidency. In 2020, he carried leads in all six states late into the evening going into those six cities and lost all six states. This demonstrates the absolute power that these six cities carry in this presidential election. When we think of powerful cities in the United States we often think of New York, Los Angels, or Chicago, but come election time these six cities are the absolute power players. They can make or break the election if their respective states are close in votes.

As of this moment (8/8/2024), this is the overseas betting market prediction (the Polymarket). They predict the narrowest electoral victory for Vice President Harris with the belief that she will hold the “Blue Wall” of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania by the slimmest of margin. The Polymarket is missing one thing though. There is no polling available for the second congressional district of Nebraska…Omaha.

Former President Trump won this district in 2016, but lost it in 2020. Many pollsters are simply putting it in the Harris column, however this congressional district was remapped after the 2020 census and lost 40,000 voters from 2020. Local news media in the area is very adamant that this district is a "swing district" and is very much in play for both candidates. Below is a comparison of registered party affiliation:

(per ketv.com)

Republicans retained 38% of voters while Democrats reduced to 35%. There is still a large contingency of independents, however, based on the voter registration data and no polling available this is clearly a swing district and this single electoral vote is very much up for grabs. So, why am I making such a big deal about this single, small district in Nebraska? Because if Trump wins that district, Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to your worst nightmare: A Tie.

Think this is farfetched? It’s not. The polls and projections are extremely close to predicting this. So, what happens now? The newly elected house of representatives selects the president, and the newly elected senate picks the vice president. Its not how you think though. In the house, each state receives a single vote. Each state’s representatives gather and determine how to vote for their state. So, if there are more Republican congressmen/women in a state than Democrats, they can cast their state’s vote for the Republican, Donald Trump and the same for Democrats against Republicans in their state.

At present, Republicans control 26 states, Democrats control 22 states with North Carolina and Minnesota evenly split. So, in this case, if each state holds its party lines, former President Trump would receive 26 votes, Vice President Harris would receive 22 votes and Minnesota along with North Carolina would potentially be deadlocked and not cast a vote leading to Donald Trump becoming the 47th President of the United States. The Senate is currently held by the Democrats, so if they hold the senate, the Democrats could conceivably elect Tim Walz (Vice President Harris’ running mate) to be Donald Trump’s Vice President in this scenario.

Is this how the map is going to play out? Possibly not. Polls fluctuate. Many polls still favor former president Trump in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Newer polls are showing Vice President Harris gaining in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. So, in other words: Who knows? Both candidates have multiple paths to victory. Three months is an eternity in politics, but a few things are certain: These seven cities are going to play a huge role in this election and Lichtman’s 13 keys are going to weigh heavily. This race is far from over and it is still anyone’s race to win!