AI And Beyond: Four Predictions For The Next Three Years In HR

After nearly two years of recession fears, not to mention the pandemic, we're now in a reserved, cautious period in business. Faced with AI and digital transformation, companies prepare and plan while tightening belts. In this time when profitability takes precedence over investment, hiring, or new development, I see continued shrinking of headcount and cutting spending on perceived fluff. I also see companies getting more agile in adapting to this AI-driven world.

With these changes in the business landscape, HR will look different. Large corporations may well reduce HR headcount and investment, but small—to medium-sized businesses (SMBs) will undergo a transformation that will forever change the way the profession looks.

First, from a specialization standpoint, I think the focus will shift to consolidating expertise rather than increasing specialization in functional areas. I also think tech will infiltrate HR deeply through AI collaboration. I believe there will be fewer offshoots of human resources overall and a more consolidated and trimmed function, with people doing more, enabled by technology.

Check out a few predictions on where HR is going, especially for SMBs:

Top 4 Predictions For HR, 2024-2027

1. AI's Many Impacts On HR

The industry will be flipped on its head in the next few years. Staffing and recruitment will look much different than they do today. Pointing to any data point or example is tough, but you can feel the change is already in progress. Here are some specific areas that I think will see significant change:

Administration: Automation is here or coming. I also think AI will change the operational aspects of HR, such as how recruiters process candidates, the candidate experience, interviewing, etc. The focus on AI to enable and empower, and in some cases, reduce headcount, is already here but will only speed up.

Recruiting: Companies hiring in higher volumes will rely mostly on digital and AI sourcing, screening, and matching. Manual screening of candidates for hands-on roles will shrink as the work becomes more commoditized.

L&D: Programs that have shrunk will return, using AI-guided learning to drive professional growth and upskilling. They will focus on tangible skills that allow you to take on more or different work beyond your capabilities today. With the rise of AI, being human will become more critical, and a human who can leverage tech will become invaluable.

2. Changes To HR's Function

As organizations change, the functional areas of HR will evolve to consolidate, transform and develop a new look. For example, I think HR will move toward a total talent approach, with integrated talent taking over talent acquisition, talent management, talent development, talent attraction, etc. Other changes I predict:

AI standardization and enablement will become normalized as an expectation, with companies teaching associates how to leverage AI and expecting them to use it via company-mandated AI tools.

DE&I will consolidate and fall under other HR roles. After the 2020 peak and the 2022 pendulum swings in the opposite direction, companies will want people, culture and DE&I combined more and more. The investment will move to tech enablement over functional specialization. We're already seeing this with the number of DE&I heads leaving and not being replaced, the mandate for more from less and the natural evolution of the discipline pushed by technology.

3. HR Departments Aligning With AI Groups

I predict that HR departments will start working closely with AI groups internally to manage the people impact and influence relational learning and people-AI interactions for a people-centred approach.

AI/human harmonization will become a specialized skill for integration, automation and human-tech harmony. People/AI relationship science will be the new "associate relations" in many firms.

Based on my work with HR professionals and talent service providers across the industry and my partnerships with AI innovation factories, this future is becoming both nearer and clearer.

4. HR And People Operations Increasingly Valued

I believe the value of HR/people will elevate at the organizational level and become a more consistent voice in the room as those with expertise become more valuable and risks increase with higher stakes. Legal risks regarding AI will become an opportunity for collaboration between legal and HR.

HR and operations, meanwhile, may merge in some service-based companies where the line will blur; this consolidation and transformation will be significant in organizations with a significant level of "people" leadership, management, facilitation and coordination. Some companies will question the need for separate ops and HR departments and will leverage AI to automate and consolidate responsibilities and tasks.

Based on service firms I've worked with recently, HR/people/operations are increasingly overlapping. This shift allows HR leadership to shape the field to take HR and organizations to the next level.

To Keep Pace With AI/Human Integration, Consider The Following

First, I highly encourage curiosity around new tech, which means intentional learning.

Embrace change: Navigate through the discomfort to realize the greatness that can be achieved by using tech to increase your leverage in HR and people.

Increase the value of HR in the organization by empowering HR to add value to the organization.

People-centric companies will thrive as they learn to adopt AI and new technology, but they must prioritize the human experience and collaboration to do more—tech should not replace people but help them do more.

Final Thoughts

The above are a few areas where I believe functional HR may look different in the next few years. SHRM (registration required) shares their variations on these predictions that may be helpful to examine from another perspective.

A transformational HR perspective and mindset will lead to success in the field and your organization as long as you embrace how we can do it instead of how we've always done it.