August 2024

August 2024

MACRO

  • The U.S. economy outpaced expectations with a 2.8% annual GDP growth in Q2, significantly higher than the 2.1% forecast and up from 1.4% in Q1, despite high interest rates intended to slow economic activity. While inflation has cooled, rising costs for essentials like groceries and homes persist, with signs of economic strain emerging as job growth slows and consumer spending pressures intensify.
  • The U.S. job market has cooled, with unemployment rising to 4.1% and hiring falling below pre-COVID levels, marking the end of an unprecedented labor boom. While wage growth has slowed and job competition intensified, particularly in sectors like HR and tech, layoffs remain low as companies hold onto workers they struggled to find during the labor shortage WSJ
  • Investors are increasingly favoring small American firms as valuations of large companies remain high. The Russell 2000 index, representing smaller companies, surged by 9% recently due to expectations of interest rate cuts and attractive valuations. This surge reflects growing interest in small caps, spurred by positive economic indicators and political events, making them appealing targets for private equity and investors anticipating a pro-business administration.

MICRO

  • Home prices in the U.S. hit a record high of $426,900 in June, driven by low inventory despite high mortgage rates, making homeownership increasingly unaffordable. Existing-home sales fell 5.4% month-over-month and year-over-year, with bidding wars common and more than one-third of sales exceeding list prices, while affordability remains near multi-decade lows WSJ
  • CrowdStrike's recent software update failure raises scrutiny over its use of "annual recurring revenue" (ARR), a nonstandard metric that the company uses to report and incentivize executive pay despite lacking a common definition or transparency in its calculation. The discrepancy between CrowdStrike's ARR ($3.44 billion) and GAAP revenue ($3.06 billion) highlights potential overstatements, particularly as the metric includes ongoing contract negotiations, which could mislead investors about the company's actual financial health amidst significant operational setbacks. WSJ
  • The NWYC Q2 2024 Index shows small business owners' trust in Congress at its highest since 2020, despite 67% expressing concerns about the economy, highlighting a mix of political optimism and economic anxiety. Key issues for these business owners include inflation, high interest rates, and regulatory changes, with a notable apprehension about the impact of the 2024 election on their businesses Asbn

CRYPTO

  • Goldman Sachs is set to launch three tokenization projects by year-end, targeting institutional clients with a focus on permissioned networks and private blockchains due to regulatory concerns. One project aims to streamline asset management in the U.S. fund sector, another to revolutionize European debt issuance, while the third remains undisclosed, all marking Goldman’s cautious yet proactive approach in the evolving digital asset space. Crypto News
  • Spot Ether ETFs debuted with over $100 million in inflows and generated more than $1 billion in trading volume on their first day, led by BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust ETF with $266.5 million in inflows. However, Grayscale Ethereum Trust saw significant outflows of $484 million, affecting the total inflows, while its low-fee Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust attracted $15 million Quartz
  • The State of Michigan Retirement System disclosed owning 110,000 shares of ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF valued at approximately $6.6 million as of June 30, marking it as the third pension entity, after the State of Wisconsin and Jersey City, to invest in spot bitcoin ETFs. This strategic move aligns with a growing trend among state pension funds to include bitcoin ETFs in their portfolios, providing exposure to bitcoin's price movements without owning the cryptocurrency directly. The Block

MUST KNOW

  • Global stock markets have been soaring, with indexes in America, Europe, Japan, and India repeatedly setting new records. The S&P 500 has jumped over 70% since its 2022 low, marking its best performance streak in over three decades. However, high valuations and geopolitical risks, such as potential US tariffs under Trump or tensions in Taiwan, pose significant threats. Analysts warn that overvaluations and possible economic shocks could lead to a market correction, despite the current bullish trend.
  • REIT stocks surged this month, with the sector rising 4.41% after a favorable inflation report and optimistic testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, sparking hopes for a September rate cut. Office REITs led the gains, highlighted by BXP's 12.37% weekly rise, and experts predict increased transaction activity as REITs capitalize on their strong balance sheets and operational performance, positioning themselves for growth before anticipated rate cuts in 2025. Bisnow 
  • Volkswagen's PowerCo and QuantumScape have a non-exclusive agreement to produce up to 80 gigawatt-hours of solid-state lithium-metal battery cells annually, enough for a million EVs. This collaboration leverages QuantumScape's technology for higher energy density and faster charging, aligning with VW's strategy to reduce cell costs and enhance EV offerings. Green Car Reports

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